Giants Country

Three Keys for New York Giants to Upset 49ers

The New York Giants are 10.5-point underdogs ahead of Thursday night's matchup against the San Francisco 49ers.

Hunter De Siver

Three Keys for New York Giants to Upset 49ers
Three Keys for New York Giants to Upset 49ers /
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This season, the New York Giants schedule is among the toughest in the entire league, and Thursday night's matchup against the San Francisco 49ers may be their greatest challenge.

The 49ers are widely known for their versatile offense, led by running back Christian McCaffrey, and their physical defense, led by 2022 Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa and middle linebacker Fred Warner. San Francisco is 2-0 on the season and are 10.5-point favorites against the Giants.

The Giants will need a lot to go their way on Thursday night if they want to pull off an upset on the road in San Francisco.

Open the Passing Game

The Giants' offensive line's historic woes in Week 1's game against the Dallas Cowboys couldn't have been a worse start to the new season. They showed some improvement in Week 2's thrilling comeback win against the Arizona Cardinals, but they are still tied for the NFL's second-most pressures allowed (35) heading into Week 3.

The 49ers pass defense averages 247.5 yards per game, 23rd in the league. They're also ranked 23rd in sacks per pass attempt percentage, that being 5.95. If the Giants' offensive line can hold up with its pass protection to allow for some deep shots down the field, the Giants can avoid being one-dimensional and easy to defend.

Suppose the Giants are to have success in opening the passing game. In that case, they'll need their offensive line, which will be without left tackle Andrew Thomas (hamstring) and left guard Ben Bredeson (concussion) this week, to hold up in the face of a 49ers pass defense that thus far has 56 pressures and whose 49 percent pass rush win-rate currently ranks 12th in the league.

Survive Without Saquon Barkley

Despite some wishful thinking by head coach Brian Daboll that running back Saquon Barkley might be able to play four days after suffering an ankle sprain, he will be among the four inactive Giants because of injury.

With Barkley out, the 49ers' focus shifts from attacking Barkley to stopping Jones.

The 49ers have a solid secondary, but an argument could be made that their talented pass coverage ability stems from two-time All-Pro middle linebacker Fred Warner. Warner is considered the best linebacker in the NFL and the best in pass coverage, as he consistently takes away the middle of the field.

Jones will need to find a way to target pass-catchers outside of Warner's zone but should also sprinkle a few challenges toward the middle linebacker. If that can't be done and he has to use his legs more, he's shown that he's capable. However, pass-catchers like tight end Darren Waller and receiver Isaiah Hodgins need to get open much quicker than usual due to the 49ers' pass rush.

The Giants also need another receiver to defy expectations, as Barkley was tied with Waller for the most targets last week (6). Receivers Darius Slayton and Parris Campbell could be those players. But if he plays some more snaps, rookie Jalin Hyatt, who finished last week with the team's most receiving yards (89 on just two receptions), is another solid option.

Slow Down the 49ers Offense

It's hard to identify the head of the 49ers offense because they have many weapons capable of inflicting damage on a defense. Let's look at a few possibilities, starting with quarterback Brock Purdy.

Like any other quarterback at any level, Purdy doesn't function as well under pressure as he does when having a fairly clean pocket. He has been pressured on 37.1% of his dropbacks through two games, completing 52.6%.

More importantly, though, his average time to throw per Pro Football Focus has jumped from 2.30 to 3.03, which should be plenty of time for the Giants' pass rush to make something happen, be it an errant throw or a turnover. The Giants' front seven has yet to register a sack this season and has just 21 pressures over two games--that has to change and in a hurry.

Running back Christian McCaffrey is another target the Giants will likely hone in on. The NFL rushing yardage leader with 268 yards, McCaffrey, can inflict a lot of damage on a run defense like the Giants that has picked up where it left off last year regarding its struggles. Still, New York must find a way to limit the space McCaffrey, who already has six big runs of 10+ yards this season, is so good at exploiting.

San Francisco's pass-catching unit is also among the best in the league. McCaffrey has built his electric career around being a premier receiving back with a versatile route tree, while four-time Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle, who mostly blocks, also gets open easily. Receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk (questionable with a shoulder injury) are a very solid tandem capable of staying with some of the best secondaries in the league.

Final Thoughts

Beating this 49ers team is a tall order under normal circumstances, let alone for a team coming off its last game four days ago. The Giants must be mentally sharp and fundamentally sound in executing their assignments to give themselves a chance for the upset.

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Hunter De Siver
HUNTER DE SIVER

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