MMQB's Five Boldest Predictions for Giants' 2024 Season: Which Ones Are Realistic?

MMQB's Conor Orr predicts quarterbacks, win totals, and more.

New York Giants OC Mike Kafka on How His Role May Change This Year /

It’s that time in the NFL calendar when there is no football to speak of—no OTAs, minicamps, nothing. So to fill the downtime before the start of training camp, which, for the New York Giants, is on July 23, SI.com’s Conor Orr put together 100 bold predictions for all 32 NFL teams, with several devoted to the Giants.

Let’s look at the predictions, which I’ve slightly modified to only include what applies to the Giants, and discuss if they have a legitimate chance of occurring.

Dec 10, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Drew Lock (2) yells during the third quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. / Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

Drew Lock will finish the season as the Giants quarterback.

This prediction has a realistic chance of happening, though not necessarily for the reason Orr suggested.

For this to hold, any struggles Jones encountered would have to be his own doing. For example, if the offensive line isn’t fixed and he becomes a human pinball back there, is that necessarily Jones’s fault? 

If heaven forbid Malik Nabers goes down with an injury or tight ends Theo Johnson and Daniel Bellinger have everyone screaming out for replacements at year’s end, is that the quarterback’s fault?  

What if Jones puts the ball in harm’s way or struggles with his post-snap reads, as he has done for most of his time in the NFL? Then that’s on him.

What if he gets injured again? While that wouldn't necessarily be his fault, it would be hard for the Giants to continue justifying his contract if his availability jsut isn't consistent.

Besides an injury sidelining Jones, the most realistic scenario for Lock to unseat Jones as the starter would be if the Giants come out of the gate slowly and are out of the playoff discussion by the midway point and if Jones simply isn't elevating his level of play and that of the offense's. 

At that point, head coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen will need to decide whether it makes sense to continue with Jones, who has a $23 million injury guarantee (and a lengthy injury history), or continue to ride out the season with him in hopes of winning a few more games to finish with a respectable record.

That decision isn’t as simple, though, as it depends on why the Giants' season went south. However, if the team’s brass, who was heavily reported to be seeking a trade-up in the draft order to get Drake Maye and who also put in that escape hatch midway through Jones’s contract, wants to protect its cap for 2025, then it makes sense to turn to Lock.

The Giants (6.5) will easily hit the over on their projected DraftKings win totals.

Barring a rash of injuries, it’s hard to argue against this one. As Orr pointed out, “The Giants and their rebuilt pass rush have two cracks at rookie Jayden Daniels on the schedule, as well as the NFC South.” 

A quick look at the Giants' schedule offers hope against the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Commanders, the latter of which Orr referenced as having Jayden Daniels on the schedule. The Giants could potentially “steal” a win against Seattle in Week 5 and maybe even split the season series with the Eagles for a second year.

Things look promising for a four-game sweep against the NFC South—Atlanta, Carolina, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay—and the Giants should be able to hold up against the Colts.

If the season plays out that way, the Giants would be looking at around nine to ten wins. It’s an aggressive goal, no question, but not one that’s out of the question.

Jan 8, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Giants safety Xavier McKinney (29) and offensive tackle Evan Neal (73) against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. / Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

The Giants will have two vastly improved young offensive linemen.

They better, not just for the sake of the quarterbacks’ health, but for the sake of the team’s growth. Orr, citing Pro Football Focus, notes that center John Michael Schmitz and right tackle Evan Neal were among the worst of the Giants offensive linemen last year.

To be fair to Schmitz, it didn’t help that the guards on either side of him weren’t consistent or very good. And he, like Neal, dealt with injuries. 

That said, expectations have been raised for this unit under the watchful eye of new offensive line coach Carmen Bricillo, who has produced solid offensive line units wherever he’s been.  

Those expectations start with the future of the young offensive line veterans, whom the Giants are counting to be cornerstones of that unit for years to come.  

Bill Belichick will not end up as the head coach of the Giants.

As much as some Giants fans have been fantasizing about Belichick “coming home,” I think Orr is spot on with this prediction. 

Belichick enjoyed the dual role of head coach and de facto general manager for the New England Patriots, and he’s just not going to get that second title with the Giants, who aren’t set up that way and show no signs of wanting to change their organizational structure.  

Even if Belichick were okay with not holding the general manager role, if the Giants show improvement from a year ago, why would ownership disrupt that and start over with a new head coach who will likely want his guys in the locker room and coaching staff?   

While no one expects the Giants to hoist the Lombardi trophy next February, as long as the team continues to improve, which it should this year, it makes sense to stay with Daboll. 

And if the Giants should go backward, do we need to remind people that Belichick’s Patriots team made the playoffs just once (a wild card loss in 2021) in the post-Tom Brady era?  

Feb 4, 2023; Paradise, NV, USA; NFL coach Eli Manning reacts during practice at Allegiant Stadium. / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

We will be devoured alive by the Eli Manning first-ballot Hall of Fame discourse.

Okay, maybe Orr is being a little dramatic in his choice of words, but he’s right to say that retired Giants quarterback Eli Manning’s Pro Football Hall of Fame ballot will likely be one of the hottest debate topics in the coming months.

There is no question that Manning belongs in Canton, but some will point to his career won-loss record (an unfair argument since a quarterback’s won-loss record isn’t solely on one guy’s shoulders). 

Let’s hope the voting committee also considers Manning’s two Super Bowl championships, in which he was named MVP, and his 27 career fourth-quarter come-from-behind wins.

Orr believes that Manning is going to get in at some point. Whether it’s this year or down the line remains to be seen. Still, it’s not going to be easy because, as both Bob Glauber and Gary Myers, two members of the Hall of Fame voting committee, told me for two different Locked On Giants podcast episodes, there is probably going to be an intense discussion among the voters regarding Manning’s worthiness. 

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