New York Giants Burning Questions: Should Team Re-sign RB Saquon Barkley?

We continue our look at the biggest questions facing the New York Giants this off-season.

New York Giants general manager Joe Schoen came into his job with a plan to acquire, develop, and retain talent that could be considered part of the team's foundation for the foreseeable future.

Although Schoen wasn't in charge when the Giants drafted left tackle Andrew Thomas and defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence, Schoen was smart enough to recognize those two players are core, young pieces of this team worth retaining. So rather than delay--Lawrence was in the option year of his rookie deal, whereas Thomas had a couple of years left on his first contract--Schoen locked those two up long-term.

Schoen also did the same thing with kicker Graham Gano, an older veteran but a very important one whose contract was about to run out.

In being proactive, Schoen removed most of the potentially toughest contract negotiations from his plate ahead of the 2024 off-season. But two are still looming: running back Saquon Barkley and safety Xavier McKinney.

We'll save McKinney for another article as we want to focus on Barkley, the Giants' Walter Payton Man of the Year nominee, the man who, for the early part of his career, was the main face of the franchise and a player who has, at times, caused divisiveness among the fan base given his draft status back in 2018.

New York Giants Questions: The Future at Quarterback

Barkley's Impact

Although the Giants never came right out and said so at the time, one of the many reasons why Barkley was so appealing to them when he was in the 2018 draft was that his skill sets as a playmaker were thought to be something that could take the onus off then quarterback Eli Manning, who was on the back end of his career.

Manning, remember, had thrown for over 600 pass attempts in his final two full seasons as a starter, and the Giants, wanting to milk every last drop out of the Manning era, figured that adding a player like Barkley who could make the team's running game legitimate, would be the way to go.

Initially, this theory proved to be accurate. Barkley recorded a career-high 2,028 scrimmage yards, including his first of three (to date) 1,000-yard rushing seasons.

Alas, there were flaws with the plan. Whereas Barkley was, at times, a dynamic player for the Giants, he was never really a consistent game-changer. Instead, he was more of a "feast or famine" type of runner, usually producing one long run that makes up the bulk of his rushing yardage in a game.

As of this writing, Barkley has rushed for 100+ yards in 17 games out of 71 regular season games (23.9 percent). The Giants are 9-8 in those games and 24-26-1 overall in regular season games played in which they had Barkley.

Oct 15, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley (26) runs the ball against the Buffalo Bills in the third quarter at Highmark Stadium / Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Is That Enough to Justify a Big Contract?

Let's look at the Giants' salary cap situation for next year, which, as a reminder, is fluid (it will change once the postseason accounting of incentives gained and earned by all the rostered players is factored in).

Per Over the Cap, the Giants currently have $35,853,875 of total cap space (which presumably includes the current $4,373,933 they have this year, though that number will drop as the team makes any additional roster moves between now and the end of the regular season).

Of their $35.853 million cap space in 2024, the Giants have $18,268,173 in effective cap space, which is the amount they can spend to fit guys under the Top 51 rule which starts on the first day of the new league year in March.

Currently, with the Giants sitting sixth in the draft order, they are estimated to need $7,250,702 in cap space to sign their 2024 draft class. Subtract that amount from the effective cap space, leaving the Giants with an estimated $11.017 million before any roster cuts or existing contracts are restructured to clear more space.

What's Barkley's Market Value?

According to Spotrac, Barkley's market value figures around $6.6 million per year based on a three-year deal worth $19,961,421, making Barkley the 11th highest-paid running back in the league.

That $6.6 million figure is far from the $14 million the Giants reportedly offered him last year, which he rejected. Still, it's also reflective of how another year filled in injuries--this year, an ankle issue that cost him three games earlier in the season--might affect his earning potential.

The Giants could franchise tag Barkley for just over $12 million if they wanted to, but with other needs on the roster, such a move might not make as much sense, especially if he ends up playing on the tag again as he did this year.

What to Do?

If Barkley, who added a second agency to his contract negotiation team, is looking to be paid among the top10 or even the top five highest-paid running backs in the league, there's a very good chance the Giants might decline, given that Barkley is not only another year older but added another injury to his growing list.

Meanwhile, would Barkley, who is playing on the tag this year for just north of $10 million, be open to a contract that has an APY paying him less than what he's earning this year on the tag?

Probably not, but that is likely where this is headed. While there is strong sentiment in the building about making Barkley a Giant for life, unless he's willing to accept being paid among the top 15 running backs in the league, as his Spotrac market value suggests, this could very well be the final year for Barkley in Giants blue.

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