Predicting Saquon Barkley's Next Contract

Can the Giants get a deal done with their star running back that ensures he ends his career in blue?

New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley wants to be a Giant for life, and the Giants would love for nothing better than to make that happen.

But Barkley also wants some sort of financial security, and that's where he and the Giants have, at least up until now, varied as they try to find a middle ground that's a win-win for both parties.

Barkley went through a tumultuous time last year as he sought his big payday from the Giants. However, his prior representation at Roc Nation Sports could not get a deal done that satisfied Barkley's definition of financial security.

Were it not for the late addition of CAA to his negotiating team, one might wonder if the one-year modified franchise tag with lofty incentives as part of the deal would have come to fruition given the stalemate that took place in the months prior.

Fast forward to the present. Barkley is no more receptive to receiving a second franchise tag than he was receiving the first one. But after going through the rocky roads of negotiations last year, he told reporters at the end of the 2023 season that he's "numb" to the possibility of a second tag.

With CAA now solely in charge of his representation, there is a chance Barkley might be able to avoid that if he keeps an open and realistic mind regarding his potential earnings.

In cooperation with Over the Cap, Pro Football Focus has projected a two-year, $22 million contract for Barkley ($11 million APY) with $15 million guaranteed. Notes PFF:

There's no doubt Barkley's highs are as high as any running back in the game, but the position market is a tricky landscape to navigate in 2024, especially with his missing extended time in three out of the past four seasons. The good news for Barkley and all free agent running backs this offseason is that the 2024 running back draft class is not perceived to be strong.

PFF's starting point on a contract for Barkley is solid. Still, a more likely scenario will be a three-year deal, the third year voidable, to allow the $15 million signing bonus (guaranteed money) to be spread out at a prorated rate of $5 million per.

The Giants are also likely to up the guaranteed money just a bit more by guaranteeing what should be a very low Year 1 base salary as part of the deal. We could also see the Giants throwing in some incentives, including a per-game roster bonus for every game Barkley is healthy and active and an annual workout bonus of about $100,000 per year.

To further push the value of the deal forward, the Giants will also include some performance incentive of the "Not Likely to Be Earned" category, which means if he reaches the incentives, the financial hit gets deferred to the following year (when the league-wide cap is expected to rise). 

And if he doesn't reach the incentives, the Giants wouldn't be charged (plus they'd get a cap credit on any game-day roster bonuses Barkley doesn't collect).

This proposed deal might not be what Barkley envisioned for himself, but at this stage in his career, given his injury history, it's where things are trending. Whereas last year Barkley, who was coming off a full season and a career-high 1,312 rushing yards, might have had a stronger case for a minimum guaranteed money total equivalent to the sum of the 2023 and 2024 franchise tag amounts, that opportunity has since evaporated after injuries and age--he's another year older--have occured.

But the former Penn State star can take some comfort in knowing that by remaining in the New York market, there are bound to be marketing deals galore to supplement his income that might not otherwise be available if he goes elsewhere. 

Barkley, who recently added Silk to his long line of endorsements, also has deals with Nike, Pepsi, Toyota, Visa, and Marriott, the Marriott deal being a joint effort with backup quarterback Tommy DeVito. 

With few exceptions, these endorsements with major brands aren't as readily prominent among Barkley's peers. So when he sits down to consider his next contract offer from the Giants, the supplement income also needs to be a factor as far as the financials are concerned.

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