The New York Giants' Costly Risk in Sticking with QB Daniel Jones

With Giants head coach Brian Daboll willing to stick with Daniel Jones at quarterback, the team is playing with fire should he suffer a serious injury that could significantly impact what they can do next year and beyond.

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) looks for an open receiver, but the attempt is incomplete on Sunday, October 13, 2024, in East Rutherford. / Kevin Wexler-NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After seven games, the New York Giants have reached a crossroads with quarterback Daniel Jones, and it’s becoming increasingly clear that both sides are unlikely to engage in another season together.  

For now, though, head coach Brian Daboll, in his comments to the media following a second straight loss in which the offense failed to score double-digit points and in which the passing offense is still without a touchdown thrown at home, said that Jones gives the team the best chance to win games and will remain the starter.

That conclusion was likely reached after watching backup Drew Lock, who played nearly a full quarter of Sunday’s embarrassing 28-3 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, fail to provide the spark the team was seeking.

Still, with each passing day, more and more signs point to a parting between the parties. It began this past offseason when Hard Knocks confirmed the Giants were serious about trying to trade up in the draft order for Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye.

It was further reinforced when Giants general manager Joe Schoen, in a cameo appearance during the Bears training camp edition of Hard Knocks, was caught on camera telling Bears general manager Ryan Poles that “it’s gotta be nice” not to have to worry about scouting for a quarterback.

Then you have head coach Brian Daboll saying that he pulled Jones for backup Drew Lock in the Eagles blowout to provide a spark, something that one rarely sees happen if a starter is on secure ground.  

Even more recently, after the Philly debacle, when asked what gave him confidence that Jones could generate the big plays that Daboll wants on offense, Daboll pointed to the receivers rather than saying anything about the quarterback’s ability to generate big plays.

Daboll won’t say it, but he has likely concluded that Jones really does give the team its best chance to win. If true, this is a sorry testament to the front office's efforts to stock up on talent to “protect themselves” at the position should something go astray.

But even that decision is a gamble considering the $23 million injury guarantee that is staring the Giants in the face every time Jones takes off as a runner and lowers his shoulder or every time he’s pressured and hit. 

The Giants, if they do move on from Jones after this season, will be on the hook for  $22.21 million in dead money if they make Jones a pre-June 1 transaction, which they almost certainly would considering that on March 15, 2025, $12 million of Jones’s $30 million base salary becomes guaranteed if he is still on the roster. 

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If Jones can’t pass a physical next spring–the deadline was never confirmed, but let’s use the start of the 2025 league year, which would be March 12--the Giants are on the hook for $23 million of Jones’s $30 million base salary in addition to the $22.21 million dead money.

How does that impact the Giants next year? Remember, cap space is fluid, and more space can always be created as needed by restructuring deals. However, it’s not the wisest thing in the world to get into that habit yearly, as it potentially ruins the cap for years.

Per Over the Cap, the Giants have $48.153 million in total space and $30.382 million in effective space (effective space being what they have left after signing 51 players and their projected rookie class, as per the Top 51 rule). That cap space currently ranks 19th in the league.

Cutting a healthy Jones before March 15, when $12 million of his base salary becomes guaranteed, will result in $19.395 million in savings and $22.210 million in dead money. 

But if the Giants are on the hook for the injury guarantee, add the $23 million to the dead money, and suddenly, the Giants will be in the red, unable to find money to operate next offseason and beyond.

That, in turn, would likely lead to a need to restructure multiple contracts, such as those of left tackle Andrew Thomas, outside linebacker Brian Burns, and defensive tackle Dexter Lawerence–all of whom have guaranteed money owed next year.

While restructuring contracts is not necessarily a bad thing if done in moderation, if it has to be done in excess, then the team potentially risks landing back in salary cap hell.  

Despite what’s at stake, Daboll isn’t thinking about anything other than finding ways to win games. But if things spiral out of control, is the gamble he seems willing to continue taking, considering how another season is slipping away, really worth it?

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