Why Saquon Barkley is Playing a Risky Game with Giants Contract Talks

Barkley and the Giants are still not close on a new multiyear contract. Here's why that's a big-time risk for the player.

In life, so few things are worth gambling on the outside of one's self.

But even when taking that gamble, there has to be a degree of common sense deployed, lest the gambler loses and wonders what could have been.

Such is the current situation with New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley, who remains locked in a contract impasse with the team. According to NJ Advanced Media, Barkley rejected the team's offer made after the season of $13 million per year with a chance to earn up to $14 million via incentives--this after he turned down a bye week deal proposing $12.5 million per year.

It's not known what Barkley is looking for. At the end of last season, he did say that he wasn't looking to re-set any markets at his position, which would mean he's not looking to earn more than Christian McCaffrey.

He's also not looking to be on par with McCaffrey, at least according to his agent, Kim Miale, who shot down such a report.

But if $13 million with a chance to get to $14 million isn't enough for Barkley, and he's also not looking for $16 million per year, then why the hold up over what appears to be a $1-$2 million difference?

It could be the structure of the contract, or the guaranteed money isn't sitting well with Barkley's side. Only Barkley and Miale know the answer to that, but it's pretty clear that the former Penn State running back is willing to gamble on himself, much in the same way he did last year while playing on his rookie deal's option year, to strengthen his case for what he's asking.

Barkley, remember, told anyone who asked that he was confident that he'd have a career year and be better than ever before because he believed in his training.

Sure enough, he delivered on that vow, staying healthy for the entire season for the first time since his award-winning rookie year and topping his rookie year rushing yardage total by a whopping five yards.

Here's where it becomes a dangerous game for Barkley, who barring a new deal reached by the July 17 deadline idea will end up playing on the one-year franchise tag paying a guaranteed $10.1 million once it's signed.

If he thinks the Giants won't be able to franchise him again because they'll have players like safety Xavier McKinney, defensive lineman Leonard Williams, and cornerback Adoree' Jackson all in line for new deals and that there will be no way of the Giants getting all these guys re-signed in time to where a second franchise tag placed on Barkey is a given, then think again.

First, the Giants are unlikely to extend Jackson on a new deal. Second, extending Williams could depend on how well he bounced back from the first significant injuries that cost him playing time. And the same can be said of McKinney, who continues to rehab a broken hand suffered last year at the bye.

In other words, to assume the Giants will prioritize franchising any one of those three over Barkley is not only selling the running back short, it's the type of gamble that's completely out of their control, thereby making it dangerous for Barkley to assume that he'll finally get the payday he wants, even if it comes from another team.

It's also foolish to assume that Barkley, with a well-documented injury history, will make it through another season unscathed or that his production will be better than it was last year, not with the addition of Eric Gray to the roster and the very strong possibility of there being a committee approach to lessen the load on the 26-year-old running back.

Simply put, it's too big of a risk to take, which is why if Barkley's side refuses to come down off its demands, they need to rethink things. The running back market just isn't as lucrative as it once was--look no further than how Zeke Elliott was cut loose or how Dalvin Cook might be cut as part of a cost savings tactic.

That all being said, for Barkley to not take the risk would also warrant questioning because such a tactic could be perceived as him not believing in himself. But that doesn't discount the fact that he's playing a dangerous game that could cost him millions if his gamble doesn't pay out.

So what, then, should Barkley do? Should he take the Giants' offer and just throw in the towel?

What will probably happen is the two sides remain dug in, and Bakrley plays the upcoming season on the franchise tag, preparing to gamble on himself again next year--this after a training camp holdout that will probably see Barkley sign the franchise tag about a week before the regular season.

But what the two sides should do is meet in the middle on a deal that lets Barkley test the market before he turns 30. Maybe make it a three-year deal in which the third year voids.

Because if Barkley is that confident in himself to leave a reported $4 million on the table, then why would anyone think he wouldn't have that same degree of confidence to still be a big-money earner two or three years down the line? 

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