Why the Giants Will Beat the Jets, Why They Won't, a Prediction
The once-every-four-year regular-season matchup between the New York Giants and New York Jets has long been hailed as a rivalry for bragging rights in the Big Apple or a chance for the Giants, who are 9-6 all-time in the regular season against the Jets, to reaffirm their "Big Brother" status over their stadium neighbors.
For the Giants, however, it's just the next game on the schedule and one that, while certainly a draw from an external perspective, doesn't quite have the same juice as, say, Giants-Eagles or Giants-Dallas.
Nonetheless, a win by the Giants over Gang Green would not only snap a two-game regular-season losing streak, but it would also give Big Blue a two-game winning streak as they look to get their 2023 season back on track.
The Jets won't be easy to deal with. They have one of the better defenses in the league that is loaded with top-tier talent. And they currently have a bit of a confidence swagger going, thanks to their head coach, Robert Saleh, promoting that within the locker room despite the season-long loss of quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
But the Giants, at least in the last month, have started to show grit, even if it hasn't always worked out for them. They kept it close for nearly three quarters against the 49ers, a finalist for the NFC conference title last year, until things got away from them.
They also kept it to a one-score game against the high-flying Miami Dolphins until that game got away from them. And they went back and forth against another playoff team from last year, the Buffalo Bills, until that one went in the wrong direction near the end.
Last week, the Giants beat the Washington Commanders, snapping a four-game losing streak. But again, while the results over that span weren't what they hoped for, the Giants started to show some grit to where if they can just start faster on offense and cut down on the stupid mistakes that seem to keep dooming them, perhaps they'll have a puncher's chance at making this season more respectable than many currently believe it will be.
So, what will it be against the Jets this weekend? Let's play the scenarios out.
Why the Giants Will Win
Saquon Barkley might not yet be 100 percent recovered from the ankle injury that kept him out for multiple weeks. Still, he's seen his workload increase since returning two weeks ago against Buffalo, and that workload could continue to increase this week against a Jets run defense that's allowed 135.2 rushing yards per game, 26th in the league.
Barkley figures to be extra motivated this weekend, not only because he grew up as a Jets fan--his father bears a tattoo in homage to Gang Green, but also because Barkley had his worst performance against the Jets the last time these two teams met, rushing for just one yard on 13 carries.
Want a more encouraging start to hang your hat on? Per Sharp Football, the Jets have allowed opponents to score one touchdown on 36 possessions in the second half of this season. Considering the Giants have started their games slowly, only to pick up steam in the second half, this could play into Big Blue's strength.
Defensively, the Giants' third-down defense has also played better of late, again giving them a favorable matchup against a Jets offense that has converted just 25 percent of its third downs, the lowest rate in the league. The Giants have also been better in their red zone defense of late, which also plays in their favor against a Jets team with the worst red zone scoring percentage (touchdowns only) in the league (29.41 conversion percentage).
Another notable that could go a long way toward a Giants win is for this team to start fast. Thus far, starting fast has eluded the Giants, but if they can force the Jets to play from behind, they give themselves a better chance at winning, as the Jets are 3-12 when quarterback Zach Wilson has to throw more than 26 times.
Why the Giants Will Lose
It's not official just yet, but there is a very good chance the Giants get back center John Michael Schmitz for this game. That means another offensive line combination is on deck against a good Jets defensive front.
The Giants hold the NFL's worst sack percentage, allowing sacks on 16.02 percent of pass attempts. The Jets' defense, meanwhile, has recorded two or more sacks in only three of their six games.
That said, Tyrod Taylor, who will get the start this weekend at quarterback for the Giants for the injured Daniel Jones, has been a little bit better at sliding around the pocket to avoid pressure. Taylor has been sacked eight times over the last three games.
But it's not all about sacks. The Jets defense has forced some of the league's top quarterbacks into throwing interceptions thanks to the pressure they've applied, specifically Josh Allen of the Bills (3), Jalen Hurts of the Eagles (3), and Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs (2).
Simply put, if the Giants don't win the battle in the pit, it will be another long afternoon.
Prediction
The Jets come into this game a well-rested 3-point favorite, but the Giants have been building up a little momentum in recent weeks. The defense has been playing well, and the offense has survived the loss of Daniel Jones. The Jets have the third-worst record in the league following a bye (16-25).
This game probably won't be a blowout either way, but gives the edge to the Giants in a low-scoring, defensive slugfest.
Giants 17, Jets 13
- Get the latest breaking news and analysis on the New York Giants
- Follow and like us on Facebook
- Submit your questions for our mailbag
- Check out the Giants Country YouTube Channel.
- Subscribe and like the LockedOn Giants YouTube Channel
- Connect with us via text alerts! Free 14-Day Trial!
