Will Xavier McKinney Have a Breakout Season for the Giants?

Xavier McKinney is entering his contract year looking to solidify that he can be part of the future at safety.

Xavier McKinney, Safety

Height: 6-foot-0 | Weight: 201 pounds
2022 Stats: GP: 9 / GS: 9. 45 tackles (two for loss), five pass breakups, one sack, one forced fumble, zero interceptions

The New York Giants selected Alabama safety Xavier McKinney with the 36th overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, hoping to establish a much-needed makeover to their secondary and defense. However, a pedal foot fracture just weeks before his rookie campaign sidelined him until week 11.

McKinney earned a starting role in weeks 13-16, recording a very impressive 24 tackles, a pass breakup, and an interception.

McKinney was the Giants' leader of the secondary in 2021 and was a few votes short of going to the Pro Bowl. He hoped to continue this momentum into 2022, but an ATV accident during the bye week sidelined him until week 17.

Now entering his fourth season as the Giants starting safety, the 24-year-old (age by the start of the season) is entering his prime years as an athlete.

Best Case Scenario

In 2021, McKinney emerged as one of the best safeties in the league. In just his second season (first as a primary starter), he recorded 93 tackles, ten pass breakups, and five interceptions but was widely considered a snub from the Pro Bowl.

His efforts that season, combined with his high football IQ earned him the green dot in 2022, a communication system put inside the helmet that allows him to be the defensive signal caller. Several players, including McKinney, have shared the green dot during OTAs.

While donning the green dot last season, McKinney and the Giants held an eyebrow-raising 6-2 record, one of the best in the NFL. Should McKinney earn the green dot for the 2023 season, he’s proven that he’s capable of not only making top-tier plays himself but leading signals for the rest of the defense to shine as well.

If he sticks to the formula he’s used the last two seasons, McKinney should receive Pro Bowl recognition.

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Worst Case Scenario

McKinney got off to a solid start in 2022. However, he broke a couple of fingers during an ATV accident in early November, which sidelined him until Week 17.

The Giants went 2-4-1 during McKinney’s absence, a much larger difference from their 6-2 start to the season. New York went from allowing 345 yards per game to nearly 400 during that skid.

McKinney was a major factor in the Giants’ success in the first half of the season. They were practically a lock to make the playoffs, but they ended up barely squeaking in when McKinney was gone.

Should McKinney miss time this season, the Giants may not get so lucky again. New York has one of the most underrated secondaries in the league after the addition of rookie Deonte Banks, but McKinney has proven that he’s their X-Factor.

What to Expect in 2023

The safety position truly blossomed in 2022, as several players broke out and either earned first-time Pro Bowl honors or were the next in line. This newly-enriched position has caused PFF’s Dalton Wasserman to create a Top 32 ahead of the 2023 season.

McKinney landed at No. 25. Due to being at the lower end of the list, Wasserman focused more on McKinney’s negatives but mentioned what could happen if he played this season as he did in 2021.

McKinney’s third year out of Alabama was a bit rough, as he carried just a 61.1 overall grade this past season,” Wasserman said. “He also missed eight games and did not intercept a pass. That contrasts the 2021 version of McKinney, who posted a 75.4 overall grade and picked off five passes that year. The Giants need vast improvement from their secondary if they want to see the postseason again in 2023. A return to form for McKinney would go a long way in achieving that goal.

That last sentence is truly the key to McKinney’s success for 2023. If he makes an immediate impact, Wasserman’s hypothetical midseason list could include McKinney among the best.

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