New York Giants Week 12: Keys to Beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Here’s what the New York Giants must do to earn a win.

NY Giants head coach Brian Daboll coaches from his sideline during a game between the New York Giants and the Washington Commanders at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford on Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024. / Julian Leshay Guadalupe/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

There has been a dawn of a new era taking place in East Rutherford this week, and with everything that unfurled around the New York Giants organization in the past four days, one almost forgets that they once again have a new game to play on Sunday. 

It’s been quite an emotionally challenging stretch for the Giants that started on Monday with the team electing to bench starting quarterback Daniel Jones for the remainder of the regular season to preserve his $23 million injury guarantee and push forward with third stringer Tommy DeVito after the bye week. 

The move clearly set some awkward tension throughout the locker room and in the regime’s relationship with Jones, who was relegated to defensive scout team service at the Giants practice on Wednesday, enticing the former No. 6 overall pick to request for his release from the team which was fulfilled just one day later after a meeting with ownership.

While none of it was expected to happen as fast as it did, the Giants are now entering a new situation with DeVito and must ditch the onslaught of distractions to navigate the rest of the season with him, starting with their homestand against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at MetLife Stadium on Sunday. 

Like the Giants, the Buccaneers are coming off their bye week riding a four game losing streak that they are looking to stop in order to save their hopes of a late season playoff run. They started the year 4-2 but have since lost those four close games by 10 points or less to drop to 4-6 on the year.

Tampa Bay is led by quarterback Baker Mayfield who has really reinvented his career that dealt with its challenges in other cities. The former No. 1 overall pick in 2018 currently stands ninth among quarterbacks with a statline of 243 completions for 2,505 yards, 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions which is on par for one of the greatest passing campaigns of his professional career. 

Mayfield has been blessed with a solid arsenal of receiving weapons that have bolstered the Buccaneers offense to top-10 status in several major categories, including second overall in passing touchdowns and fifth in total points scored. Injuries have recently marred that operation, but it is set to gain back one of it's important weapons in Mike Evans prior to kickoff against New York. 

Tampa Bay has also benefited from a stout offensive line that ranks 11th and 12th in run and pass block efficiency, respectively, and has only allowed 24 sacks on the season. They have one of the best overall blockers in offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs who owns top-20 placements in both pass and run block win rates and a 24 percent or higher number when facing double team pressures.

The Buccaneers might look impressive on the offensive end, but there are some weaknesses elsewhere that the Giants can exploit if they want the chance to win on Sunday. Their opponent is coming in playing vulnerable in recent weeks and these are three ways that they can be taken down for the Giants first home victory of 2024. 

Establish the Passing Game

With Tommy DeVito entering the equation at quarterback, the Giants are hoping to light a spark in their passing game and they have a perfectly favorable matchup in the Buccaneers to do that.

The Buccaneers have been one of the NFL’s most vulnerable teams against throwing offenses this season. They rank 27th or worse in total production allowed through 10 games and are matching those standings in three of the four major passing metrics including 29th in passing touchdowns allowed. 

As a team, the Giants have averaged just 189.8 yards per game through the air which is only a few yards better than what they allow to their opponents, but they’ll be matched up with an enemy that succumbs 26.6 points and 264.1 net yards per contest in the same span. In each of the Buccaneers last four games they gave up at least 260 passing yards that went as high as 338 in their latest loss to San Francisco. 

Given they are much stronger against the run, the Giants should look to target Tampa Bay’s second and third levels of the defense and help DeVito develop some confidence in his arm again, the same that helped him shine in three of his six games as a starter in 2023.  

DeVito averaged a 6.2-yard throw on his 114 completions last fall which is right in the wheelhouse of the Buccaneers 6.5 yards allowed per attempt. He is a game manager by trade. The Giants should expect to revolve their passing attack around short and intermediate ranges to make the most connections with his nifty receivers and wear out the Tampa Bay defense that is among the league’s worst at getting off the field. 

This could also play well off of the Buccaneers secondary’s weakness in man coverage as only members of the position has a grade above 75.0 in that type of scheme. They’ve been dealing with some injuries so the Giants could test their reserves with quick routes and fakes into deeper shots that players like Malik Nabers and Wan'Dale Robinson can produce on. 

The Giants have been producing fairly well on the ground this season, but it is the passing operation that hasn’t found its groove despite a talented group of playmakers. New York has eight touchdowns but only four of them, including two in the air, have come on MetLife Stadium’s turf. 

With Daniel Jones released and out of the picture, the team can no longer use his inabilities as a field reader as an excuse. They must execute a dual-threat offense if they want to remain competitive down the stretch of their schedule which starts with beating Tampa Bay or the biggest change of the year will have meant nothing. 

Containing Mike Evans

It may be an off year for Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans, but he is still the top threat in their offense that the Giants secondary needs to brace for. 

Evans, who is in his 10th season with the Tampa Bay franchise, has been one of most consistently healthy and productive pass catchers in the NFL. The former first-round pick out of Texas A&M has built up nine consecutive campaigns of at least 1,000 receiving yards and seven with at least 8 touchdowns collected as the Buccaneers’ No.1 target. 

Last season, Evans and quarterback Baker Mayfield developed an early connection to earn the latter’s trust in the passing attack. It resulted in the receiver having his third-best campaign in the pros with 79 receptions for 1,255 yards, 13 touchdowns and an average catch of 15.6 yards that finished ninth in the position group and one of two Tampa Bay players with 1,000+ yards.

It’s been quite a different story for the veteran this fall, as he’s only played in seven games while missing the Buccaneers’ last three contests with a hamstring injury that’s limited him to just 26 receptions for 325 yards and six scores that ranks third on the team. However, he is slated to return for Sunday’s game against the Giants and is bound to get involved early and often as they look to attack New York’s dismal secondary. 

Defending against Evans is a constant task that makes most defensive gurus go mad because he must be accounted for on every passing play. His unique blend of size and length, at 6’5” and 231 pounds, makes him a very physical receiver who can create separation from the snap and play aggressively at the point of the catch. 

He comes off the line of scrimmage with a long stride that helps him gain an advantage on the opposing defender in man coverage by getting over the top for an open pass vertically. That also applies in the zone, where he cut across the field and did damage up the middle, which is also likely for Sunday as he chases his first 100-yard game of the season.

When the Buccaneers get down toward the end zone, Evans is always an option that Mayfield likes to look for. With his height, he can win the battles in a crowded space, so the cornerback guarding him has to be on high alert and possibly receive some extra help from another defender to prevent the receiver from making the play. 

Evans will likely be guarded by Deonte Banks throughout the game, and it has been a concerning season for the sophomore corner. His efforts in coverage have come into question multiple times this year, leading to benchings that have further weakened the secondary, making it harder for guys like Evans to thrive. 

Against the Giants in his career, Evans has amassed 38 catches for 655 yards and eight touchdowns in six meetings. Hopefully, the Banks and the company can switch the trend of his success against them and force the Buccaneers to make plays with other pieces of their offense. 

Get the Important Defensive Stops

With the way things have gone on the Giants' offensive end, it’s really hard to blame the defense for its inefficiency in getting off the field at critical points in the game. Eventually, a stout front like we tend to see from Shane Bowen’s unit gets worn out, and the impacts on a comeback are devastating.

That said, the Giants need to do more of that this Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers: they need to execute sharply on late downs and long distances and get Baker Mayfield and the visiting offense off the field to give their young group a chance to compete for the win. 

Entering Week 12, the Buccaneers have been one of the best at maintaining extended drives. They rank fifth or better in every average drive category on Pro Football Reference, with possessions that elapse almost 3 minutes and an average of 5.96 plays per turn. They also score the fifth-most points in the league in those same drives, which amounts to a score on almost every one.

The pressure gets heavier once you allow them close to the end zone, where Tampa Bay holds the third-highest red zone scoring percentage at 68.4 percent. One of the Giants' biggest problems has been making big stops on third downs, especially in distances of 10+ yards, to keep opponents out of the red zone and, ultimately the end zone. 

New York does have one of the best rankings in opposing third down conversions and red zone scoring percentage at 46.4 percent. Still, the numbers just don’t reflect how their defense has performed on those same downs in recent games, allowing at least five or more third-down conversions in the team’s last three contests. 

In the loss to Carolina before the bye week, the Giants gave up a first down six times, and a few of those helped the Panthers ice important scoring opportunities in a close game that went into overtime. Tampa Bay will do double the damage if they get that kind of production on late downs, and the Giants will find themselves in another game with the same come-from-behind fate that they can’t come back from. 

The Buccaneers' last three games saw them convert 48.7 percent against more improved defenses than the one that New York boasts, so it will be a change the Giants need to stall if they want to sneak out a victory. 

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