Why Giants Will Beat Browns, Why They Won't, and a Prediction

The Giants are looking to avoid a 0-3 start.

Sep 15, 2024; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders running back Austin Ekeler (30) is tackled by New York Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II (97) during the fourth quarter. / Peter Casey-Imagn Images

New York Giants defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence II made his feelings crystal clear this week.

"I'm pissed because I hate losing with a passion," he said Wednesday. "I take that hard -- losing. I don't like it. For me, it's just something I'm not going to keep accepting."

Unfortunately for Lawrence, the Giants are off to yet another slow start to their regular season. They have dropped their first two games: a 28-6 blowout loss to the Minnesota Vikings and a “shoulda won”  loss to the Washington Commanders last week.

The Giants, whose chances for a postseason earth have already sunk to a 6.3 success rate, are looking to avoid their first 0-3 start since 2021, a season that started with a two-score blowout loss to the Denver Broncos followed by “shoulda won” loss at Washington.

One doesn’t quite get the sense that the mood in the locker room is as gloomy as some reports have claimed. The Giants know that one win can help spark a run and work wonders for their confidence, especially with a big division game coming against the Dallas Cowboys four days later on Thursday Night Football.

Whereas at the start of this year, the game against Cleveland seemed like an uphill battle, that is no longer the case. The Browns' offense has struggled and ranks 27th in the league, 21st in rushing, and 26th in passing–all lower than the Giants' offense. 

Defensively, it's another story, as Cleveland has a top-15 defense overall (12th), against the run (14th), and the pass (14).

How will this one play out? Let’s run through the scenarios.

Why the Giants Will Beat the Browns

The Giants' offense against the Browns' defense isn’t a favorable matchup overall, even with Malik Nabers in the mix. But it sure would help if the defense could set up some short fields for the offense to work with.

Last season, the Browns committed 37 turnovers, the most in the NFL, finishing with a -9 turnover ratio. Those 37 turnovers included 23 interruptions and 14 fumbles. This year, the Browns have two turnovers, but the season is still young, and they have an offensive line that is not only banged up it hasn’t been playing well so far this season. 

Tackle Jack Conklin was declared out on Saturday as he still has a knee injury. Jedrick Wills is also banged up, but he will try to give it a go.

If the Giants' defense were to pick a game to click on all cylinders, this would be the one. Last year, the Giants forced 30 turnovers, the most in the NFL. Of course, it’s up to the offense to convert on the takeaways, but give them a shorter field with which to work, and just maybe, the Giants will be able to put more points on the board.

Want another reason to be hopeful? The Browns offense will be missing tight end David Njoku, who is dealing with an ankle issue. Njoku’s 37 targets in the red zone since 2022 are the second most in the league, making him a big loss for the Browns. Meanwhile, the Giants' red zone defense currently ranks fourth in the league, thanks to last week’s game against the Commanders.

Sep 15, 2024; Landover, Maryland, USA; New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) on the sidelines during the first half at Commanders Field. / Luke Johnson-Imagn Images

Why the Giants Will Lose to the Browns

Last week, quarterback Daniel Jones played well enough to win, but that was against a shaky defensive secondary. This week, he’s facing a step up in the competition, and it’s important that he look more like the quarterback he was in Week 2 than the indecisive one in Week 1. 

That starts up front with his offensive line, which has, perhaps to some people’s surprise, been the least of the team’s problems this season. But this week, the unit faces a big-time challenge in facing Jim Schwartz’s defense, a unit that deploys a great deal of Wide-9, which can cause stress on the tackles to block.

Then there is receiver Malik Nabers. Already, it seems as though Jones has developed a dependency on the rookie, which is not surprising. 

But what if the Browns figure out how to minimize Nabers’ impact in the game? What’s the backup plan? The Giants have other receivers–for instance, Wan’Dale Robinson continues to fly under the radar–but can they maybe get their tight ends more involved in the passing game to help complement what they already have?

That’s where play calling comes in. So far, it’s hard to say that Brian Daboll, who has taken over the play calling, has outcoached any of his contemporaries. That needs to start happening this week if the Giants are to have any chance at a win.

Prediction

Browns 20, Giants 13: I think the Giants defense will play a better game this week and, dare I say, even force a turnover or two. But the strength of this Browns team is its defense, and I can’t see the Giants outscoring Cleveland in this one, even if they get a short field thanks to a turnover or two.

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