Why the Giants Will Beat the Steelers, Why They Won’t, and a Prediction

The Giants are 1-14 in primetime with Daniel Jones at the offense's helm.

Aug 9, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers helmets on the bench during the game against the Houston Texans during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The road warrior New York Giants are back in action tonight against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that boasts the league’s eighty-best defense and which has been very difficult to play against at home.

While the Giants have had better luck on the road this season than at home, they have struggled in primetime games. Quarterback Daniel Jones is 1-14 in such games, having thrown just 12 touchdowns versus 20 interceptions. 

Still, head coach Brian Daboll believes Jones gives the franchise the best chance of winning at the moment, so Jones will lead the offense, for better or for worse.   

How will this turn out? It will probably not end well for the Giants unless the offense, which has scored just 10 points over its last two games, snaps out of its funk. But let’s go through the scenarios.

Why the Giants Will Win

If the Giants are to have any chance at keeping this close enough to win, they will have to take advantage of the beat-up Steelers offensive line that has already lost three players for the season due to injuries, with two others having been banged up enough to miss time.

By capitalizing on that matchup, if the Giants defensive front, the strength of the defense and the team for that matter, can get after quarterback Russell Wilson with any sort of consistency, there is a good enough chance he makes some mistakes, which if it happens, the Giants will need to cash in on. 

Last week against the Jets, Wilson was under pressure on 41.9% of his dropbacks, going 4-of-11 (36.1%) for 74 yards. As part of the pressure, it’s important to keep him from escaping the pocket, which the Jets managed to do in limiting Wilson to just one scramble.

That said, Wilson, per NextGen Stats, had over 2.5 seconds to throw the ball on 21 of his 29 pass attempts, which resulted in 11 completions for 205 yards. The Giants have the highest sack rate in the league (24.4%) and the seventh-best pressure rate (55.1%), but they need to make sure they’re not leaving Wilson with an escape hatch to where he can pick up yardage with his legs.

Why the Giants Will Lose

The Steelers have the league’s second-best run defense, and although it hasn’t been like the Giants have run a balanced offense these days, the danger here is that if Pittsburgh can continue to impose its will against the Giants' rushing attack, that will make the team one-dimensional, a situation the Giants just haven’t been able to overcome this year when their run game has been neutralized.

It doesn’t make one feel any better than Steelers pass rusher T.J. Watt (18), is one of three different Steelers edge defenders with 10+ pressures (Nick Herbig, 14, and Alex Highsmith, 11 are the other two). What’s even worse is that all three players, per NextGen Stats, have generated at least five of their pressures in under 2.5 seconds.

Herbig won’t play in this game, but Highsmith and Watt will. The Giants offensive tackles have had their fair share of struggles against speed rushers. 

With things looking like it will be Joshua Ezeudu getting his second start at left tackle for the sidelined Andrew Thomas, and a banged up (groin) Jermaine Eluemunor (questionable) having declared he’s playing despite his “questionable” injury designation, this looks like a very bad matchup for the Giants to have to overcome.

That said, it should be noted that last week, the Jets did a good job with limiting Watt’s pass rush. 

Per NextGen Stats, right tackle Morgan Moses held Watt to one pressure on 39 pass rushes while the Jets averaged 2.49 seconds to get the ball out of quarterback Aaron Rodgers’s hand. 

The Giants will likely try to do the same with Daniel Jones and the tackles; whether they will be able to is the question.

 Prediction

The Steelers have scored 30+ points in each of their last two games, both wins over the Las Vegas Raiders (32) and the Jets (37) defense that was being touted during the preseason as a potential Super Bowl-caliber unit.  

While it’s not unrealistic to think the Giants can hold the Steelers offense to around 20 points, it is the offense that has scored 10 points in its last two games and is why only 3% of the experts picked the Giants to pull off the upset that is the biggest concern.

Steelers 23, Giants 17

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