Why the Giants Will Beat the Bucs, Why They Won’t, and a Prediction

Which of the Giants (five games) or Bucs (four games) will snap their losing streak on Sunday?

Aug 24, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito (15) passes the ball against the New York Jets during the second half at MetLife Stadium. / Rich Barnes-Imagn Images

Sunday begins a new era of New York Giants football, in which Big Blue will play its first game in six years without quarterback Daniel Jones in the building.

The Jones saga came to a disappointing and somewhat emotional end this past week. The benched and demoted quarterback delivered a heartfelt farewell to his teammates, coaches, staff, and team fans before requesting (and being granted) his release. 

Jones’s plight left many teammates stunned and saddened that he fell on the sword when he was just part of why the team’s 2024 season has gone south.

But there’s no stuffing that toothpaste back into the tube, as the team is now turning to Tommy DeVito, a quarterback who is also very well-liked in the locker room and not just for the quirkiness that came out of his rookie season thanks to his love of his mother’s homemade chicken cutlets, the Italian pinch touchdown celebration, or the hard-to-miss presence of his agent hamming it up on the sideline and in the stands with DeVito’s parents. 

DeVito wants his teammates and the Giants fan base to know that he’s much more than just a feel-good story that comes with a sideshow. 

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“Last year was a good story, and it was kind of like how it happened, but all the fun and games outside were fun,” DeVito said Wednesday in his first conference as the newly appointed starting quarterback. 

“I'm kind of over that, I'm sticking to football now–not that I wasn't before–but really focused on that, the external stuff will be on pause. I already had talks with everybody around me, my inner circle; it is going to stay very tight, and make sure that everything is about production on Sunday.”

The Giants can only hope that DeVito, who last year captured the hearts and imagination around the NFL by winning three games in a row to keep the Giants’ then-slim playoff hopes alive, was able to bottle some of that magic as they not only look to snap a five-game losing streak but to also get their first win at home this season.

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“I think you'll see a lot of growth,” said assistant head coach/offensive coordinator Mike Kafka when asked what’s different about DeVito in his second season. 

“He's certainly another year in the system, another year in the offense. He's getting better at just the little things, those details. Talking about protections, demonstrating at the line of scrimmage with his hands, setting the defense, getting guys lined up, talking to those guys, communicating, not just on the field but then off the field, on the sideline in between series. 

“All that growth has been picking up, and you can see it happening in the meeting rooms when he's talking to guys this week. It is happening on the field, on the practice field, and that will continue to improve.”

Is it good enough to help generate more big plays and more points, two things that have been hard to come by for the Giants? We’ll get an answer around 4 p.m. on Sunday.

Aug 17, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; New York Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito (15) at the line of scrimmage during the third quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Why the Giants Will Win

Although it was a very emotional week for the Giants following Jones's benching, demotion, and release, sometimes change can be just what the doctor ordered. We saw that last year when DeVito, the Giants’ new starting quarterback this year, exploded onto the scene.

Based on what the receivers told me about DeVito’s growth, he sounds like he’s been throwing a much better and more accurate ball than Jones, at least in practice this week.  

Per NextGen Stats, DeVito averaged 7.2 yards per attempt, throwing outside the numbers in 2023, completing 6 of his eight touchdowns to these areas of the field while not throwing a single interception on 94 such attempts.

The Giants offense seems to like going outside the numbers, especially on deep throws to the outside, where DeVito was 6-of-11 for 192 yards and two touchdowns on deep throws outside the numbers last year.   

However, another element that might help the Giants win an upset is their running game. Tyrone Tracy, Jr. leads all rookie running backs with 545 rushing yards and has been a solid contributor capable of moving the chains. 

If he’s over his game-altering fumble two weeks ago against the Panthers in overtime–and he does appear to have moved on from that–he’ll square off against a Bucs run defense that has allowed 4.82 yards per rushing attempt to opponents (28th in the NFL).

Nov 10, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) is pressured by San Francisco 49ers defensive end Leonard Floyd (56) in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Why the Giants Will Lose

If stats are to be believed, this Bucs offense is a bad matchup for the Giants, not just because Bucs receiver Mike Evans is expected to play.

We can start with quarterback Baker Mayfield. Per NextGen Stats, Mayfield has completed 69.0% of his passes against single-high safety shells this season, the 3rd-highest in the NFL, and has 11 touchdown passes against single-high, 3rd most in the league. 

What have the Giants run on 63.9% on opposing dropbacks this season (4th-most in the league)? Yup, you guessed it: single-high shells. With that said, 26 of the Giants’ 36 team sacks have come with them running single-high coverage, so you’d think the pass rush, which is getting a healthy Kayvon Thibodeaux back this week, would be a key, right?

Yes and no. Mayfield has averaged 2.57 seconds to throw, the fourth-quickest in the league, per NextGen Stats. Eleven of his touchdowns have come on attempts taking 2.5 seconds or less, and he has faced the second-lowest pressure of all quarterbacks in the league on his dropbacks (24.9%).

That means he’s getting the ball out of his hand quickly, and his receiving targets–tight end Cade Otton, who has emerged following Chris Godwin’s injury–are having their way with opposing defensive secondaries, particularly with yards after catch (YAC). The Bucs have 1,346 YAC, which is +264 YACOE (yards after catch over expected), which leads the NFL. 

This is my long way of saying I don’t have a warm and fuzzy feeling about the Giants defense matching up well against the Bucs offense.

Aug 24, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito (15) runs with the ball against the New York Jets during the second half at MetLife Stadium. / Rich Barnes-Imagn Images

Prediction

Had there not been all the past week's drama involving Jones’s benching, demotion, and then release, I probably still would have gone with the Bucs in this one simply because their offense is one of the better ones in the NFL, despite their four-game losing streak.

That said, I can’t help but wonder how much the Jones story has deflated the energy in the locker room. Several guys seemed to struggle about what to say and what not to say, while others I spoke with expressed remorse at not having done more to change the course the season has taken. 

Still, the players know the show must go on, that they’re professionals and have a job to do. And while I do believe they’ll rally around DeVito, I still have my doubts about this team, which has averaged 10.6 points per game at home (the lowest by any team since 2000, per NextGen Stats), coming through with its first home win of the 2024 season. 

Bucs 33, Giants 17 

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