Why the Giants Will Beat the Eagles, Why They Won’t, and a Prediction

What is the Giants best path to an upset victory victory over the Eagles?

Sep 22, 2024; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) hands off to running back Saquon Barkley (26) against the New Orleans Saints during the second half at Caesars Superdome. / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

The New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles have much in common besides being in the same division.

Both teams lost their respective left tackles: Andrew Thomas of the Giants to a lis franc injury and Jordan Mailata of the Eagles to a hamstring.

Both teams have struggled to score from the red zone; the Giants and Eagles are tied for 27th in the league with a 44.44% conversion rate.

Both teams have been inconsistent with converting field goals, with the Giants' 76.92% conversion rate tied for 25th and the Eagles' 75% conversion rate tied for 27th. Both teams have struggled to convert on third downs.

But here’s the thing. Despite the Eagles (3-2) entering Sunday’s game with a better record than the Giants (2-4), the Giants have a much better defense that ranks in the top half of the league in just about every category except for interception rate (31st).

Based on that fact alone, one would think the Giants, who, by the way, have won three of the last four games played at MetLife Stadium, should be able to keep this one close, perhaps even squeak by with a win over their most hated division rival. 

Can they pull it off against an Eagles team that, again, has a winning record but which hasn’t been the powerhouse team they were a few years ago? Let’s look at both sides.

Why the Giants Will Win

The Eagles, despite the presence of Saquon Barkley (fourth in rushing yards with 482) and an offense that is in the top 15 in average yards, rushing yards, and passing yards, haven’t exactly gotten off to the fast starts that most teams desire. 

Philadelphia is currently the only team in the league that has yet to put points on the board in the first quarter, having been outscored 23-0 by opponents. While they do eventually seem to catch up, they have still been outscored by opponents 112-106 this season despite having a 3-2 record. 

The Giants' defense, meanwhile, has been playing some strong football. New York leads the league in sacks with 26 through six games and should be able to add to its total this week with Eagles left tackle Jordan Mailata out and Fred Johnson scheduled to take his place. 

Per Pro Football Focus, Johnson has allowed 18 pressures and two sacks in 76 pass-blocking snaps, a dismal 86.5 pass-blocking efficiency rating for the year so far. That’s not good news for quarterback Jalen Hurts, who has completed 50.8% of his passes when under pressure and thrown two interceptions while under duress. 

Linebacker Micah McFadden currently ranks sixth among all inside linebackers league-wide against the run and has done a nice job of cutting down on his missed tackles (two this year vs. the 14 he had last year). 

McFadden has 11 tackles against the run. His on-field partner, Bobby Okereke, who will also be tasked with trying to bottle up the Eagles' running game, which is led by old friend Saquon Barkley, has six tackles. 

If the Giants can bottle up Barkley and make Philly one-dimensional, there could be an upset this week. 

Why the Giants Will Lose

With all due respect to John Mara, if anything should be causing him sleepless nights these days, it’s the play of the offense. 

Although quarterback Daniel Jones did start to look as though he settled down starting in Week 2, he went right back to being Mr. Inconsistent last week, overthrowing receivers deep, missing wide-open guys, and making ill-advised decisions (see the interception in the red zone).

Jones wasn’t even heavily pressured. Per Pro Football Focus, the Bengals only managed to get pressure on 31.1% of his dropbacks, meaning he mostly had a clean pocket and time to throw.

Against a Bengals defense that, admittedly, did a great job of mixing up the pre- and post-snap looks, Jones went two for four on passes of 10-19 yards and zero for four on passes of 20+ yards (one drop). 

When your quarterback can’t connect on passes all over the field, that’s a big problem. When your offense hasn’t scored a passing touchdown at home, that’s a problem. When your offense can’t score touchdowns in the red zone (44.4% conversion rate, tied for 25th), that’s a problem, too.  

In addition, the Giants will have to move on without Andrew Thomas, who was still the best of the five starting offensive linemen, even though his game wasn’t up to his usual standards. There are many questions and concerns about whether this Giants offense can take advantage of an Eagles defense hovering in the bottom third of the league. 

But who knows? Perhaps the return of Malik Nabers to the lineup this week will help fix that issue. Perhaps the planned one-two punch of Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy, Jr. will also help. 

Perhaps the left tackle spot will survive just fine if the coaches plan on putting some help over there. And perhaps last week’s inconsistent showing by Jones was just a blip on the radar.  

The Giants can only hope all those things are true because if not, it will be another long Sunday afternoon. 

Prediction

Nope, I'm not gonna do it, and it doesn’t matter how shaky the Eagles have looked or how good the Giants defense has played. The inconsistencies on offense and in the kicking game need to be ironed out before I start believing again, though I think this will be a low-scoring game. Eagles 20, Giants 17  

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