Why the New York Giants Will Beat the Commanders, Why They Won't, and a Prediction

The Giants' days of rolling over the Commanders are over, but that doesn't mean there isn't a path to victory.

Sep 29, 2024; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Detailed view of a Washington Commanders helmet at State Farm Stadium. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The New York Giants (2-6) host the Washington Commanders (6-2) in Week 9. The Giants are looking for their first win at home this season.

The last time these two teams met (in Week 2 of this season), the Giants became the first team in NFL history to lose a regulation game despite scoring three touchdowns and allowing none.

The Giants are currently stuck in a three-game losing streak. They have averaged 9.3 points over that span and failed to score more than 20 points in all six of their 2024 losses. 

What might tip the scale for and against the Giants, against whom quarterback Daniel Jones holds a 5-2-1 career record? Let’s get into it.

Why the Giants Will Beat the Commanders

It hasn’t been often that the Giants have run a truly balanced offense this season. If there was a week for them to do so, this one would be a good one. Washington’s run defense has allowed opponents 5.1 yards per carry, the fourth-most in the league.  They also have the 27th worst run-stop win rate percentage (29%) in the league.

(For what it’s worth, Giants running back Tyrone Tracy, Jr. is averaging 5.2 rushing yards per carry.) 

The Commanders have the 23rd-ranked third-down defense, which the Giants need to capitalize on. If the Giants can establish a balanced attack and not make a struggling run defense look amazing, as they have already done at least twice this season (Dallas and Cincinnati), a blanched offense should be enough to keep the Commanders' offense on the bench. 

If there is a big weakness the Giants can exploit this week, it’s in the red zone. Washington’s defense is tied for the 29th worst run defense in the league, allowing opponents to convert 69.57% of their attempts. 

The Giants, however, are ranked 32nd in red-zone scoring (36.3%) and have scored touchdowns on 16.67% of their red-zone trips over their last three games. Simply put, if the Giants can snap out of their red-zone funk and start putting up touchdowns when they’re inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, that would make a big difference in the game’s outcome.

Why The Giants Will Lose to the Commanders

The Commanders' pass defense has stepped up its game in recent weeks, starting with the pass rush, which, after recording four sacks in the first three games, has recorded 18 since then, including 14 of those over the last four weeks, putting them fifth in sack percentage over that span.

Washington has a 46% pass-rush win rate, the sixth-best in the league. That’s not good news for a Giants passing offense whose offensive line has allowed the fourth-most sacks in the league this season and whose quarterback averages 2.76 seconds to throw, fourth out of 10 quarterbacks with a minimum of 285 dropbacks.

The Commanders have also held opponents to 120 passing yards or less in four of their last five games, including just 85 yards to the Panthers two weeks ago. The Giants this season have cracked 200+ passing yards just four times this season and are averaging 195.1 yards through the air per game (23rd) and just 5.44 yards per pass attempt (28th).

The Commanders, per Sports Info Solutions, typically run a stacked box on 70% of their run defense players, 17th in the league. That’s not good for a Giants offense that is ranked 31st in the league against stacked boxes, per NextGen Stats. 

So don’t be surprised if they use that against the Giants to try to force them to be one-dimensional in an area where they have struggled this season, which only makes sense considering Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is 0-6 with zero passing touchdowns in six home starts over the last two seasons.  

Prediction

It wasn’t that long ago that Giants fans could automatically count any game against the Commanders as an automatic win. But those days seem to be over, as the Giants and Commanders are currently heading in opposite directions, the Giants in the wrong direction. 

That said, the Giants, who, per NFLPickWatch, are favored to win by just 8% of those who rendered a prediction, have found a way to keep games close, but the offense hasn’t been able to seal the deal. Also, they’re going with a rookie kicker after veteran Greg Joseph (oblique) landed on IR. 

This is the same kicker who was removed from scoring duties and kickoff responsibilities at Rutgers in his final season. Something funky always seems to happen when these two teams meet, and it wouldn’t be a stunning surprise if, this time around, a missed kick or two is involved.

Commanders 24, Giants 10 

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