Week 2 Preview: How the Giants can beat the Bills

A complete breakdown of the matchups, stats, and strategies for the New York Giants' Week 2 home opener against the Buffalo Bills.

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Giants running back Saquon Barkley said it best.

“When you break it down, there are 32 teams in the NFL. Half of those teams lost last week, besides two of them that tied. 

"Any team in the NFL, just because you won big doesn’t mean you’re going to go 16-0. Just because you lost badly doesn’t mean you’re going to go 0-16. Don’t panic.”

Forgive the masses for panicking Saquon, but Giants fans have been down this road too many times before. 

The Giants have started the season 0-2 in each of the last two years, and in four out of the last five seasons. And in each of those seasons, well, things became ugly very quickly.

That the Giants got off to a horrific start in Week 1 also isn’t sitting well with the Big Blue faithful. 

That performance saw several preseason fears of fans and pundits alike come to fruition, namely the lack of cohesiveness in the defensive secondary and the absence of any semblance of a pass rush.

The Giants took what they could from that game to use as teaching points this week and have otherwise put that loss in the rearview mirror. 

This week, they’ll open at home against the Buffalo Bills, a team that despite turning the ball over four times in their 2019 regular-season debut, came charging back from a 16-0 deficit to beat the Jets on that very same MetLife Stadium they’ll face the Giants Sunday.

The Giants aren’t panicking, but they desperately need to play a lot better this week and come away with a win. It’s not going to be an easy task, but they better find a way because if they thought the noise from the outside was loud and ugly last week, well, they ain’t seen nothing yet.

When the Giants Have the Ball

If one were to take a quick glance at the Giants offense’s stats from last week, you’d be hard-pressed to explain why, after rushing for 151 yards and throwing for 319, the Giants were so badly beaten by the Cowboys.

There are two reasons for this. First, the Giants were abysmal on third downs, converting just two out of 11 tries, and failing to convert until the third quarter. That’s just not going to cut it no matter what kind of numbers you put up.

The second thing worth noting is that by the end of the third quarter, the Giants had just 159 yards of total offense, which means that the remaining 311 yards came once the game was pretty much in the books for the Cowboys.

So it goes without saying that one of the keys for the Giants offense will be to convert of third down. This has been an ongoing problem for this offense for a while. 

Of their 11 losses last year, the Giants converted fewer than 30% of their third-down attempts in five of those losses whereas, in their five wins, they converted at least 30% of their third-down attempts.

And although last week the Giants didn’t have any three-and-out drives, last year they averaged 2.5 three-and-outs per game. That also isn’t going to cut it.

So what can the Giants do? They can start by putting the ball in Saquon Barkley’s hands more than they did last week. 

Head coach Pat Shurmur, in trying to explain why the best playmaker on offense received a career-low 15 touches (11 rushing attempts and four receptions), blamed it on a lack of plays in the second quarter and then on the Giants falling so far behind that they had to pass more.

Yet the official gamebook snap total shows that Barkley, who remember can run AND catch the ball, was on the field for 54 of the Giants 68 snaps.

Sorry, Coach, not buying that there weren’t opportunities to get the ball to Barkley unless there was some concern about his stamina after not playing at all in the preseason (and it's hard to imagine there would be considering he practiced all summer long).

The other thing would be to drop these designed rollouts of Eli Manning on the more critical third and fourth down situations. Throwing on the move has never been Manning’s strength, even when he was “vintage Eli.” 

To expect that to change now is coaching malpractice and is a contributor to the Giants’ third-down woes.

The good news for the Giants offense is that the offensive line held up well against the Cowboys exotic blitzes. The Bills tend to run similar complex blitzes, so one has to feel good about the Giants five-man human wall in picking up those blitzes and keeping Manning upright.

Tight end Evan Engram could be in for a heavy workday in the slot with receiver Sterling Shepard declared out due to a concussion / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The last thing to watch will be the use of tight end Evan Engram. With Sterling Shepard declared out with a concussion, expect to see the 6-foot-3, 240-pound Engram lining up in the slot a lot more this week.

Last week Engram saw 22 snaps from the slot, with six of his 14 pass targets coming from the slot. Taron Johnson, 5-foot-11, 192 pounds, handled the bulk of the Bills slot cornerback duties last week, but he has been declared out of the game with a hamstring injury.

That means that 6-foot, 206 pound Siran Neal, who had one less snap in the slot than Johnson and fared just as well, will probably get the call in the slot.

It’s not going to be easy for this Giants offense as the Bills, holders of the league’s third-best overall defense (223 yards) and the league's second-best pass defense (155 yards) have held nine consecutive opponents to less than 210 passing yards going back to last season. 

They are 5-4 in that span.

When the Bills Have the Ball

If there was ever a good week for the Giants pass rush to wake up and get it going, this would be it.

Last week when pressured, Bills second-year quarterback Josh Allen completed 54.5% of his pass attempts. The year before that, when under pressure, he completed 28.3% of his pass attempts.

Simply put, pressure Allen, and he becomes a turnover machine. Last week, Allen threw two interceptions, making that his sixth game out of 13 in which he’s thrown interceptions. The Bills have a record of 1-5 in those games when Allen has thrown two or more interceptions.

Giants safety Jabrill Peppers believes that there could be some opportunities for the Giants defensive secondary to get their hands on a pass or two.

"He throws the ball in a tight window because he has such fantastic arm strength," Peppers said of Allen. 

"I think that will definitely give us a couple opportunities to get our hands on the ball." 

Of course, getting pressure is just one half of the equation. The Giants backend of their defense needs to do a much better job than it did last week against the Cowboys, who racked up 319 yards via the air. 

The Giants had just three passes defensed, as the Cowboys passing game seemed to do whatever it wanted against a Giants defense that clearly still hasn’t jelled.

Another thing the Giants need to clean up on defense is tackling. Last week, they had five missed tackles, which each miss seemingly resulting in more than double the yardage gained had they made the stop.

Sep 8, 2019; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throw a pass during the second half against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Getting back to Allen, the Giants need to make sure they don’t let him escape from the pocket. Allen’s 38 rushing yards are currently the third-best in the league among quarterbacks (behind Baltimore’s Anthony Levine and Houston’s Deshaun Watson); last year, he finished second among quarterbacks with 631 rushing yards, just behind Lamar Jackson (691) of the Ravens.

This is where the Giants are really going to need their defensive interior, and in particular, Dexter Lawrence, to step up.

Last week Allen averaged 5.0 yards per carry (six rushes for 30 yards) by escaping up the middle of the formation. Lawrence and friends cannot allow Allen to do that again an must make sure they are there to greet him if he should try to run up the middle.

Turning to the Bills passing game, Cole Beasley, who historically has been a thorn in the Giants side, is now the Bills’ slot receiver. 

In 13 career games  against the Giants, Beasley has caught 34 of 52 pass targets for 432 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 8.31 yards per reception, and has lined up in the slot against the Giants for 38 pass targets over the last three years

Grant Haley is the Giants slot cornerback and the man who will try to contain Beasley this weekend. 

Haley’s’ 2019 season, like many of his defensive teammates, didn’t get off to the best of starts last week as in 15 snaps in the slot, Haley was targeted twice, allowing both attempts to be completed for 22 yards, 19 coming after the catch for a 112.5 NFL rating.

Another guy to keep an eye on is receiver John Brown, who last week had a big day with 123 yards on seven receptions and a touchdown. Brown was on the receiving end of seven of the Bills’ 11 first downs achieved by passing, and four of the Bills’ 10 longest plays from scrimmage, the longest of which was his 38-yard touchdown catch.

The last key is the Giants' run defense, which was fairly solid against the Cowboys last week. New York held Dallas to 89 yards on 30 carries (3.0 per carry), and only one rush going for 10 yards, that by Zeke Elliott.

This week, Buffalo will likely send rookie Devin Singletary into the teeth of that Giants run defense. All four of Singletary’s rushing attempts went for 10 or more yards, something the Giants can ill-afford to let happen again. 

Additional stats via Sports Radar and NFL Remarkable.

Follow the NY Giants Maven on Facebook.