Why the Giants Will Beat Seattle, Why They Won't, and a Prediction

The Giants look to improve to 7-1 before their bye week against a Seahawks team that has won its last two games.

Author:
Patricia Traina
Publish date:
Oct 30, 2022 9:00 AM EDT

In this story:

The New York Giants head to Seattle for perhaps their biggest yet most underrated game on their 2022 schedule this far.

A win would allow the Giants to keep pace with the still-undefeated Philadelphia Eagles, where just a game separates the two division foes.

A win would also give the Giants the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Seahawks for Wild Card seeding should Seattle, currently in first place in the tightly contested NFC West, lose their footing to the defending Super Bowl champion Rams (3-3).

The Giants enter this week's game as an underdog, a status with which they have had success this year.

They are 5-0 as the underdogs, the best record in the league. And with each passing week, the Giants have made believers out of their harshest critics, but they are catching a Seahawks team that has been red hot of late.

As led by one-time Giants quarterback Geno Smith, Seattle has scored seven touchdowns in the first quarter this season, the most in the league. They also have 18 offensive touchdowns (tied for seventh) and have scored 11 outside of the red zone.

Who will come out on top and why? Let's have a look.

Why the Giants Will Win...

The Giants' strengths on offense line up nicely with the Seahawks weaknesses on defense--maybe a little too perfectly at that, but still, it's a reason for hope.

We can start with the running game. The Giants rushing offense is ranked second in the league, behind the Chicago Bears. New York is averaging 173.4 yards on the ground, and they're doing it not just with running back Saquon Barkley, whose 726 yards are second in the league behind Cleveland's Nick Chubb, but quarterback Daniel Jones, as well.

Jones has contributed 338 yards, the third-most rushing yards among quarterbacks (behind Lamar Jackson of the Ravens and Justin Fields of the Bears). That's potentially bad news for a Seattle run defense tied for 29th in average rushing yards allowed (149.7 yards/game).

The Giants' ability to run the ball has helped open up play action and get into the red zone. Over the last three weeks, the Giants, who overall are 50 percent in converting once inside the red zone, lead the NFL in red zone possessions (14) and have come away with seven touchdowns over that span. That's potentially good news when facing a Seahawks defense that has allowed 41.3 percent of its opponents' drives to reach the red zone.

Why the Giants Will Lose

Lumen Field has a well-deserved reputation as one of the loudest stadiums in all of pro football. That's not necessarily good news for a Giants offensive line that, after playing together with the same five guys for the first seven games of the season, will be missing their starting left guard (Ben Bredeson, now on IR with a knee sprain), and right tackle Evan Neal (knee/inactive).

Giants head coach Brian Daboll has done a good job preparing his team for every conceivable scenario, including Lumen Field's loudness. The Giants have practiced in crowd noise and worked with hand signals and everything in between to ensure their operation runs smoothly. But what we don't know is how well it ran in practice.

We'll find out soon enough. But as for the other concern? The Seahawks have the tenth-best rushing offense, which has averaged 137.0 yards per game, set to go against the league's 28th-ranked run defense (144.4 yards/game allowed). Rookie Kenneth Walker III leads the way for the Seahawks, averaging 6.1 yards per attempt.

Walker, who is coming off a 168-yard rushing performance last week against the Chargers (five of which went for 10+ yards), has been tough to wrestle to the ground--he's averaging 3.96 yards after contact. That's not good news for a Giants run defense with 35 missed tackles, an average of five per game.

In many ways, the Giants' best bet to win this game is similar to the Seahawks: shut down the run and force the quarterback--in this case, Smith--to beat you through the air. New York, who elevated safety Landon Collins from the practice squad, probably figure to load the box quite often against Walker, who thus far has faced a loaded box on 25.37 percent of his rushing attempts this season.

And if the Seahawks are missing receiver DK Metcalf (knee), who is listed as questionable, a figure that should make the Giants' task a little easier, though by no means a slam dunk.

Prediction

I said a few weeks ago I wouldn't pick against the Giants for the rest of their games before the bye. Although this game makes me nervous (I know, you're probably thinking, "What game doesn't make you nervous, Pat?") for the reasons outlined within, I have the utmost respect for the resiliency this team has shown in getting the job done, even if they do so in dramatic, come-from-behind fashion.

Giants 24, Seahawks 20