Giants Country

Why Giants Will Beat Commanders, Why They Won't, and a Prediction

The New York Giants have had success of late against the Washington Commanders. Can they continue that success and get their season back on track?

Patricia Traina

Why Giants Will Beat Commanders, Why They Won't, and a Prediction
Why Giants Will Beat Commanders, Why They Won't, and a Prediction /
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The hard part of the New York Giants 2023 schedule is in the books; by now, several things are crystal clear about this team.

First, it's not ready for a slew of primetime games. Thanks to injuries and poor performances, the Giants were embarrassed in three of their four primetime games--and yes, you can probably make an argument that they were shamed last week in prime time after they went zero for five in the red zone despite having the Bills on the ropes.

But I digress. The Giants, whose depth has also been exposed thanks to the injury bug (again) cutting deep into key positions, haven't been good enough to overcome their mistakes, of which there have been plenty.

The good news is the coaching staff has tweaked some of what it was doing. On offense, the Giants have streamlined the number of pass targets, focusing more on the youth movement that is Jalin Hyatt, Wan'Dale Robinson, and Darius Slayton. The return of Saquon Barkley has also helped give the Giants running game a homerun threat, and if they can just get tight end Darren going, this offense might be more than decent.

Defensively, the Giants have done less blitzing of late, favoring more of a four-man rush with the idea of getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, beefing up a still shoddy run defense, and protecting a young but promising-looking defensive secondary. 

These changes haven't yet borne fruit, but it's good that the coaches aren't married to any original plans. That said, can they top a Washington Commanders team against whom they are 6-3-1 since 2018?

Why the Giants Will Win

We're turning our desperate eyes to the Giants defense, which has five sacks in its last four games. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has reduced the number of blitzes he deploys in a game and has had some success by moving to a four-man rush. In the last two games, Martindale has blitzed nine and 19 percent, increasing the four-man rush to 47 and 60 percent, respectively, resulting in the Giants recording 38.9 percent of their total pressures (per Pro Football Focus) in that span.

Washington quarterback Sam Howell has only been blitzed on 26 percent of his dropbacks but has completed 61.4 percent of those attempts for 317 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions.

If the Giants, who, by the way, will face a Washinton team that is allowing 7.3 sacks plus turnovers per game first in the league, can get home with a four-man rush, they might have better success against Howell, who has completed 56.9 percent of his passes for 351 yards, two touchdowns, and four interceptions when not facing a blitz.

The Giants defense has been trending upward, and if they can take advantage of a beat-up Washington offensive line and rattle Howell, that will go a long way toward helping to snap this four-game dry spell New York is currently stuck in.

Want one more reason to think the Giants can win this one? The Commanders have allowed 1,202 receiving yards to wide receivers in 2023, first in the league. Meanwhile, the Giants are transitioning to their younger (and faster) receiving corps, including Jalin Hyatt, Darius Slayton, and Wan'Dale Robinson, who have accounted for 42.2 percent of the Giants receiving yardage this season.

That's not good news for a Washington pass defense currently ranked 27th in passing yards allowed per game (248.2). If the Giants offense is ever going to get on track, this would be a great week to do so against a Comanders defense that is ranked 29th in the league, having allowed 377.2 yards of total offense per game.

Why the Giants Will Lose

For all Washington's talent on its defensive front, that unit has yet to take over any games this season as a group rather than as individuals. Given that they'll be facing yet another starting offensive line combination for the Giants, which currently projects to be Justin Pugh at left tackle, Mark Glowinski at left guard, Ben Bredeson at center, Marcus McKethan at right guard, and either Evan Neal (questionable with an ankle injury) or Tyre Phillips at right tackle.

Although this would be the sixth different starting combination in as many games, the results have seemingly been the same regardless of who the Giants have put out there. According to Pro Football Focus, New York has allowed a league-leading 109 pressures and is ranked 31st in pass-blocking efficiency (75.6).

If the Giants, who have not scored a touchdown on offense in their last three games, can't operate behind the latest edition of the offensive line, then they may as well call it an early day.

Prediction

Several weeks ago, in this weekly column, I said I'd be reluctant to pick the Giants to win a game again this season unless they gave me a reason to believe in them.

Well, last week's tight contest against the Bills and the subtle changes this team has made, from blitzing less to streamlining the receiver rotation, plus the play of the defense, has thawed the ice that has been my disbelief.

Giants 23, Washington 17

Published
Patricia Traina
PATRICIA TRAINA

Patricia Traina has covered the New York Giants for 30+ seasons, and her work has appeared in multiple media outlets, including The Athletic, Forbes, Bleacher Report, and the Sports Illustrated media group. As a credentialed New York Giants press corps member, Patricia has also covered five Super Bowls (three featuring the Giants), the annual NFL draft, and the NFL Scouting Combine. She is the author of The Big 50: The Men and Moments that Made the New York Giants. In addition to her work with New York Giants On SI, Patricia hosts the Locked On Giants podcast. Patricia is also a member of the Pro Football Writers of America and the Football Writers Association of America.

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