Why Giants Will Beat Green Bay, Why They Won't, and a Prediction
It wasn't too long ago that, because of their sinking 2023 season, any of the New York Giants' December games were afterthoughts.
But now? Suddenly, the 4-8 Giants are on a two-game winning streak (yes, against struggling opponents, but a win is still a win), and they're doing it with their third-string quarterback, Tommy "Chicken Cutlets" DeVito, who is suddenly the toast of the town.
And if that's not enough to blow your mind, consider this. If somehow the Giants beat the Green Bay Packers tonight on Monday Night Football--that same Packers team that is 16-0 in December games under head coach Matt LaFleur, the Giants will be one game out of the NFC Wild Card race, with two very winnable games still on deck against the Saints (next week) and the Rams.
Welcome to the NFL, folks. While the Giants still have a less than a one percent chance at the playoff, it ain't over till it's over--which is what running back Saquon Barkley emphasized last week.
“We’re not looking too far, or in the hunt, or at playoff pictures. But if we take care of what we need to take care of — everyone can say what they want about the season — it’s Week [14], and everything we want is still there. We don’t need any extra motivation.”
It won't be easy--the Giants aren't favored in this game by the oddsmakers, and the Packers also have a playoff berth to play for. But there's a reason why you line up and play the game despite whatever odds are against you, and that's what head coach Brian Daboll's team intends to do in its quest to snap the PAckers' three-game winning streak.
Why the Giants Will Win
The Giants have been riding the legs of running back Saquon Barkley for several weeks now, and there's no reason to expect that to change this week. The Packers run defense has been atrocious, allowing 136.3 yards per game to opponents, which is 30th in the NFL. Of their 1,635 rushing yards allowed to opponents in the year, 643 have come in the last four games.
Logic dictates that the Packers will do everything possible to stop Barkley and the Giants running game, averaging 107.1 yards per game, 18th in the league.
The goal of the Packers defense would seem to be to force DeVito to beat them with his arm and in the process make a mistake. But unless the Packers can find a way to stop Barkley--again, they haven't been able to stop their last four opponents' rushing games--the Giants could have an edge in this aspect.
There is another thing to note if you're looking for why the Giants win this game. Packers quarterback Jordan Love has not thrown an interception during his team's current three-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Giants' defense has had six picks in its last two games. If the Giants can pick up where they left off and force a mistake or two that the offense can capitalize on, this game could end up being a lot closer than anyone figures.
Why the Giants Will Lose
While it was pointed out to me that the Giants are undefeated in their legacy uniforms, I'm afraid I'm going to have to counter that with the fact that the Giants are winless in primetime games.
And not just winless but embarrassed. In their four prior primetime affairs this season, the Giants have been outscored 108-24, the games often over by halftime. Yes, they came close to pulling it off against Buffalo, but again, an embarrassing brain blip at the end of each half doomed the Giants.
Daboll might have tweaked the team's processes to ensure more normalcy for these later games, and who knows? Maybe those tweaks will work, especially considering they had two weeks to prepare for this game.
But here's the problem. Unless the coaching staff figured out a way to turbocharge an offense that is averaging 13.3 points per game (31st in the NFL)--unlikely since the personnel is what it is, and Week 14 is too late in the season to introduce radical changes on either side of the ball--it's not hard to see why the odds are stacked against the Giants in this one.
Prediction
Besides not being very enjoyable to watch on primetime games this season, the Giants have also historically come out flat and uninspiring after their bye, holding an 18-24 (42.9 percent) record. (They are 1-0 under Daboll.)
But between the primetime game and the offense's struggles, I question if the Giants will score more than their current season average. There have been exceptions, but they came against two teams (Arizona and Washington) that are not very good.
Packers 24, Giants 13
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