Giants Country

Why New York Giants Will Beat the Jaguars, Why They Won't, and a Prediction

Can the Giants pull out another victory against a rather deceiving Jaguars team?

Patricia Traina

Why New York Giants Will Beat the Jaguars, Why They Won't, and a Prediction
Why New York Giants Will Beat the Jaguars, Why They Won't, and a Prediction /
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The New York Giants are looking to win their third straight game to advance to 6-1 and maintain their winning streak over non-divisional opponents this year.

Their latest challenge will be the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team that has dropped its last three games but is also one that the Giants have yet to beat on the road. 

Will the Giants train keep rolling right along against the Jaguars, or is the team due for a letdown? Let's play out both sides of the coin and then make a prediction.  

Why the Giants Will Win

While all eyes might be on the Giants' running game (as led by Saquon Barkley) against the Jaguars' run defense (ranked fifth in the league), an underrated matchup to watch that could be a big one in nudging this game toward the Giants favor is the use of tight end Daniel Bellinger and Barkley against Jaguars linebacker Devin Lloyd.

Last week, Bellinger caught all five of his pass targets for 38 yards and a touchdown--modest numbers considering he was sent out on a pass route on 81.3 percent of his snaps and was targeted on a season-high 20 percent of the pass attempts.

Meanwhile, Lloyd has allowed 38 pass completions, the most allowed among all NFL linebackers.

If the Giants can get Bellinger and Saquon Barkley against Lloyd, they could give themselves a fighting chance to move the chains and, hopefully, take an early game lead that turns into a win. 

Defensively, Wink Martindale continues to bring the heat against quarterbacks. The Giants lead the league in blitz percentage rate (42.5 percent), which is not good news for Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawerence, who is averaging 5.3 air yards per attempt when blitzed (31st in the league). 

Why the Giants Will Lose

Quarterback Daniel Jones has four game-winning drives under his belt this season, the most in the NFL through the first six weeks.

While those come-from-behind wins make for some intrigue and excitement, it's fair to wonder just how sustainable such a model is and at what point will the Giants' slow starts to games come back to cost them in a game.

According to Sharp Football stats, the Giants have led 23.3 percent of their offensive snaps, the lowest rate of all teams with a winning record and 25th in the NFL. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have led 40.3 percent of their offensive snaps (ninth in the league), the highest rate of all teams with a losing record.

The Giants have been outscored in the first 30 minutes of play, 64-40. In the second half, they hold an 87-49 advantage, which breaks down to a slim 39-27 lead in the third quarter and a whopping 48-22 advantage in the fourth quarter.

Simply put, the Giants' tendency thus far to play catch-up probably isn't sustainable. If the Jaguars manage to do a better job protecting the lead (should they get it) into the fourth quarter, it could lead to a disappointing outcome for New York. 

Prediction

The Giants are on a roll, and I think they deserve the benefit of the doubt after taking care of business against teams that, per most critics, they had no business beating.

I think it's going to be a close one again--all the Giants games seem to be close calls. But I think they're going to take care of business against the Jaguars this week to get their first win ever on the Jaguars' home turf.  

Giants 23, Jaguars 20

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Patricia Traina
PATRICIA TRAINA

Patricia Traina has covered the New York Giants for 30+ seasons, and her work has appeared in multiple media outlets, including The Athletic, Forbes, Bleacher Report, and the Sports Illustrated media group. As a credentialed New York Giants press corps member, Patricia has also covered five Super Bowls (three featuring the Giants), the annual NFL draft, and the NFL Scouting Combine. She is the author of The Big 50: The Men and Moments that Made the New York Giants. In addition to her work with New York Giants On SI, Patricia hosts the Locked On Giants podcast. Patricia is also a member of the Pro Football Writers of America and the Football Writers Association of America.

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