Giants Country

Why the Giants Will Beat the 49ers, Why They Won't, and a Prediction

Can the New York Giants really pull off an upset victory over the 49ers?

Patricia Traina

Why the Giants Will Beat the 49ers, Why They Won't, and a Prediction
Why the Giants Will Beat the 49ers, Why They Won't, and a Prediction /
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This game between the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers could get ugly fast.

Or maybe not.

That's the beauty of weekly football games--you never know what you'll get. Still, on paper, the 49ers appear to have the advantage in this Week 3 Thursday night clash, ranging from a loaded and healthy roster to the home-field advantage.

But last week the Giants proved that it ain't over till it's over, as they stormed back from a 20-0 deficit against the Arizona Cardinals (who were good enough to put up 20 points against their visitors) to win the game dramatically 31-28.

So yes, there's a chance, even if it's a small one, for these Giants to conjure up memories of the classic Giatns-49ers games of the 1980s, which were must-see TV events. Will tonight's game fall into that category, or will it be a lop-sided snooze fest?

Why the Giants Will Win

Yes, New York is missing the starting left side of its offensive line (tackle Andrew Thomas and guard Ben Bredeson) and running back Saquon Barkley. But if there was ever a time for the Giants to feature their wide receivers heavily in a game, this week would be it.

According to Sharp Football Analytics, the Giants, through two games so far, have targeted their wide receivers at the 24th highest rate in the NFL, instead favoring their tight ends in the passing game, having targeted them at the seventh highest rate.

The 49ers pass defense ranks 22nd in the league, defending wide receivers. Sharp also notes that the Giants passing game has primarily gone between the hash marks at the fifth-highest rate in the league while going outside the hashes at the 28th-highest rate.

Again, if they want to play into the 49ers defensive strengths, the Giants should stick with that plan, as San Franciso ranked second in defending passes in between the hashes. But if they want to shake things up, targeting receivers outside the hashes might be their best bet since the 49ers are ranked 16th in their defense of pass targets to that side of the field.

One other item of note. If the report of second-year man Wan'Dale Robinson set to return from a torn ACL is true, that gives the Giants yet another receiver for offensive coordinator Mike Kafka to play chess with.

So yes, missing Barkley is going to hurt because of the type of talent he has. But if the Giants, who showed signs of successfully opening up their passing game last week, can continue that this week, they might just make this game a lot closer than the oddsmakers, who have the Giants as a 10.5-point underdog, believe it will play out.

Obviously, this is all contingent on the offensive line holding up its end of the bargain against a 49ers pass rush that has averaged 3.0 sacks in its first two games without contributions from edge rusher Nick Bosa. So maybe keeping a tight end in to help with blocking so that the Giants can attack this seemingly weak area of the 49ers defense might be in the cards.

Why the Giants Will Lose

I remain very concerned about the Giants' run defense, which, through two games, has not looked all that much better than the group that finished 27th last year (144.2 yards/game). This year, the Giants' run defense is ranked 26th, allowing 136.5 rushing yards per game through two contests.

On Tuesday, I asked head coach Brian Daboll about the run defense's struggles, and he said. "We’re going to try to improve every area of our football team where we’re at, but again, run defense is really team defense. It’s controlling the line of scrimmage, it’s making sure we have good run fits and run support."

Among the problems that have shown up on film include guys not getting off blocks or failing to properly set the edge to force the running plays back inside for the linebackers and interior defensive line to finish off.

That's something that needs to change going forward, starting this week when the Giants just so happened to be in line to see a 49er rushing offense headlined by the league's current rushing yardage leader, Christian McCaffrey, a unit that, by the way, is averaging a league-best 5.6 yards per rushing attempt, while having only been stuffed on six of their 62 rushing attempts so far.

Dexter Lawrence currently leads the Giants defender with six stops, followed by inside linebacker Bobby Okereke (five), then linebacker Micah McFadden, and defensive tackle A'Shawn Robinson (four each). But the Giants sure could use a little more run-stop production out of guys like Leoanrd Williams and Rakeem Nunez-Roches, each of whom has one run-game tackle in two games played.

Prediction

I don't think this will necessarily be a blowout on the scale of Week 1's 40-0 or last week's 20-0 first half, but I think the Giants will need to play a near-perfect game with little to no mental errors against one of the best teams in football right now.

That's a tall order as is, but coming off a short, emotionally charged week in which they were cooped up in a hotel and were limited to walkthrough practices in a bubble might be a lot to ask. 49ers 33, Giants 17

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Patricia Traina
PATRICIA TRAINA

Patricia Traina has covered the New York Giants for 30+ seasons, and her work has appeared in multiple media outlets, including The Athletic, Forbes, Bleacher Report, and the Sports Illustrated media group. As a credentialed New York Giants press corps member, Patricia has also covered five Super Bowls (three featuring the Giants), the annual NFL draft, and the NFL Scouting Combine. She is the author of The Big 50: The Men and Moments that Made the New York Giants. In addition to her work with New York Giants On SI, Patricia hosts the Locked On Giants podcast. Patricia is also a member of the Pro Football Writers of America and the Football Writers Association of America.

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