Why the Giants Will Beat the Rams, Why They Won't, and a Prediction

The Giants close out their 2023 regular season with the first of two games at home.

The NFL is weird in a way in that a team's fan base waits months for the start of the season. Then, one of two things happens. Either the team shoots out of the gate and rolls over its competition, or its season goes down in flames.

For the New York Giants, the latter happened, leaving scores of fans disappointed and disgusted even with how the 2023 season, once filled with so much hope, has spiraled out of control and into the graveyard before it got off the ground. Many fans have chosen to tune out and wait for free agency and the draft, both months away.

But for the players, there are still two more games to be played, and while there is no playoff berth on the line, don't expect the Giants to start making business decisions regarding their approach starting this Sunday when they host the Los Angeles Rams.

"This is the NFL. Go out there and compete, try to win," said running back Saquon Barkley of the team's approach to these last two games. "That's the weekly goal: go out and try to find a way to win the football game, and it doesn't change. Obviously, we'll be going home in two weeks, so the mindset is to try to finish the season as strong as we can."

That, of course, is easier said than done. The Rams have been red-hot and are in pursuit of a playoff berth. After them comes the Eagles, who continue to jockey for the NFC East title and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

The Giants? They've assured themselves of a top-10 draft pick--possibly even a top-5, depending on how these next two weeks go. They've also registered their ninth season with a losing record in their last 11. And they're facing many questions at virtually every level ahead of the off-season.

But as Barkley said, business is business, no matter the circumstances, and that's the message head coach Brian Daboll has stressed to his players.

"It's unfortunate that we're not in a scenario where we can continue to compete and make the playoffs, but there's a lot of people that would love to be in our position, so you've just got to keep that mindset, go out there, play at a high level, and try your best to come out with a win like every other week," Barkley concluded.

Okay, so with Week 17 on tap, can the Giants, a 5.5-point underdog at home, pull one last surprise out of this disappointing 2023 season?

Why the Giants Will Beat the Rams

Locked On Rams host Doug McKain recently expressed concern about this being a trap game for the Rams, who face the 49ers in the regular-season finale. But the Rams, knowing they can afford to lose, should be ready to go for this one.

So then, where might the Giants be able to upend Los Angeles? The Rams defense hasn't been quite as potent as its offense. They have the 22nd-ranked passing defense (231.3 yards/game).

So if there was ever a time for the Giants to try stretching the field and taking deep shots, this would be it--and the Rams' struggles against the pass could very well have been a factor in the Giants deciding to give Tyrod Taylor, who moved the ball down the field and took advantage of the deep shots, the nod over Tommy DeVito this week.

 

Why the Giants Will Lose

Good luck trying to find a weakness in the Rams' offense.

Sean McVay's group is ranked seventh overall (363.9 yards/game), 10th in rushing (122.1 yards/game), 10th in passing (241.9 yards/game), 12th in 3rd down conversions, and ninth in red zone conversions (59.18 percent) and scoring (23.8 points per game).

Running back Kyren Williams has rushed for 100+ yards in four of his last five games. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown 15 touchdowns to two interceptions since the bye (in which the Rams are 5-1), and the emergence of rookie fifth-round pick Puca Nacua has taken the receiving game (as headed by Cooper Kupp) to a whole other level.

That's a LOT of weaponry to overcome; the Rams are presenting a classic case of "pick your poison," given that talent. If you're defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, maybe yield the running game and try to get after Stafford, who has been sacked six times in his last three games. But even that's a tall order for a Giants defense that, while expecting to have all hands on deck, is banged up and worn down from a long season.

Prediction

This game will likely require the Giants to get into a shoot-out with the Rams just to keep it close. McVay does a great job of mixing up the play selection and eating up the clock to keep opposing offenses off the field. Look for the Rams to comfortably cover the point spread in this one, as the Giants, while intending to be competitive, are likely looking at another long and ugly day.

Rams 30, Giants 17

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