History Suggests One of These 11 Teams Will Win Super Bowl LIX

If your favorite team is not already in first place, it’ll be a long road to the Big Game. If your team is under .500? Curtains.

The Chiefs and Bills lead their respective divisions, while the 49ers are tied atop the NFC West. / Jay Biggerstaff/USA TODAY Network (Mahomes); Ed Mulholland/USA TODAY Network (Allen); Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Network (Purdy)

If your favorite team is currently under .500, they might still make a fun run to the postseason. They might even find a way to win their division, but forget the Super Bowl. Forget a parade.

In the Super Bowl era, no team with a record below .500 going into Week 7 has reached or won a championship. There have been a few that were at the .500 mark and figured out their mojo, but anybody with more losses than wins? Curtains. 

To take it a step further, since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, only 10 teams have ever won the Super Bowl without holding at least a share of first place in their respective division:

• 1971 Dallas Cowboys (4–2)
• 1975 Pittsburgh Steelers (5–1)
• 1980 Oakland Raiders (3–3)
• 1988 San Francisco 49ers (4–2)
• 1993 Dallas Cowboys (3–2)
• 2001 New England Patriots (3–3)
• 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers (3–2)
• 2007 New York Giants (4–2)
• 2010 Green Bay Packers (3–3)
• 2021 Los Angeles Rams (5–1)

So where does that leave us for 2024? 

Based on history, the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams are finished. That’s a baker’s dozen of teams below .500.

Furthermore, only the Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Washington Commanders, Minnesota Vikings, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons, San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks are either alone in first or tied for their division lead.

History suggests one of those 11 teams will be crowned champion. Pick your fighter. 

Joe Burrow and the Bengals would be a historical outlier if they could get back to the Super Bowl after starting 2–4. / Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

Of course, the NFL has changed over the years. In most of the 1970s, only four teams from each conference made the playoffs. The league expanded the format to five teams for both the AFC and NFC in 1978, and then added another squad for each side in 1990. Now, almost half the league qualifies. Still, the results speak for themselves.

Of the teams history would say to eliminate, the Bengals probably have the best shot to break the trend. Cincinnati is 2–4 but has an All-Pro level quarterback in Joe Burrow and a last-place schedule based on its 2023 finish. The Bengals could get to 5–4 before their rematch with the Ravens if they win a trio of games against the Browns, Philadelphia Eagles and Raiders, with the last two coming at Paycor Stadium. 

Meanwhile, of the middle tier—the eight teams not in first place but at least .500—the Detroit Lions have the best chance to make a move. 

While Detroit will sadly be without star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson the rest of the year with a broken leg, the Lions are 4–1 and have perhaps the most complete roster in the game. Additionally, Detroit will likely make a move before the Nov. 5 trade deadline to acquire some pass-rush help, even if that acquisition will be a far cry from Hutchinson, who leads the NFL with 7.5 sacks. 

In the NFL, while nobody points to a specific time on the calendar, being approximately one-third through the season is enough to draw a few conclusions.

Beyond the box scores and the standings pages, contenders and pretenders have begun to solidify. On Tuesday, the Raiders conceded their season, sending All-Pro receiver Davante Adams to the desperate Jets, who should be sellers but are buyers due to being all in with Aaron Rodgers. 

In the coming weeks, other teams toward the bottom will start making trades to acquire future draft capital. With that, a few middling squads will get stronger while contenders close a few holes in their respective rosters. We’ll hear all the noise about how Team A or Team B just became a force to be reckoned with.

But while the action will grab headlines, most of the moves won’t be major contributors to a championship team. 

In recent seasons, the biggest impact for a championship team was the Rams trading for Von Miller, giving the Denver Broncos second- and third-round draft choices. Before that, the biggest move of the past decade was Kyle Van Noy going to the Patriots in 2016. 

Meaningful trades helping alter where the Lombardi Trophy winds up do happen, but it’s far more likely the big moves impact the playoff race, not the champion.

There are 12 weeks remaining. Rosters will change. Players will heal. Players will get hurt. That’s the NFL.

But data dating back to the 1960s and ’70s tells a story. If a team isn’t atop its division, and certainly if it’s not at least .500, forget it. 

If you’re rooting for one of those franchises, it’s time to catch up on chores.