Updated NFL Playoff Picture After Chiefs, Ravens Wins on Christmas

Here's how the playoff picture will shift based on Christmas's games.
Mahomes is hit as he throws a pass
Mahomes is hit as he throws a pass / Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

This post will be updated live as games go final, but includes conditional possibilities based on the results of Christmas Day games, barring ties.

In the spring months when the NFL schedule is mapped out, it's a nearly impossible task to predict what teams will be relevant to the playoff picture late in the season. This year's schedule aficianados—and surely, helpful schedule optimizing algorithms—did great with their selection of the four teams scheduled for Christmas Day.

All four teams—the Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans—are relevant to the NFL playoff picture in the AFC. Here's how the playoff picture looks as of Wednesday's outcomes.

Later this week, several teams can clinch playoff positioning.

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How the NFL Playoff Picture Looks With Chiefs, Ravens Win

After the Chiefs beat the Steelers 29–10, they clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC, earning themselves home field advantage and a first-round bye in the playoffs.

At stake for the Ravens on Christmas was seeding. They moved above their division rivals, the Steelers with a win today after Pittsburgh lost to Kansas City earlier in the day.

Seed

Team

Record

Playoff Status

Playoff Likelihood

1

Kansas City Chiefs

15–1

Clinched No. 1 seed

100%

2

Buffalo Bills

12–3

Clinched Division

100%

3

Baltimore Ravens

11-5

Clinched playoff spot

100%

4

Houston Texans

9–7

Clinched Division

100%

5

Pittsburgh Steelers

10-6

Clinched playoff spot

100%

6

Los Angeles Chargers

9–6

Clinch playoff spot with win OR Colts loss + Dolphins loss

94%

7

Denver Broncos

9–6

Clinch playoff spot with win

76%

8

Indianapolis Colts

7–8

No clinching scenario this week

14%

9

Miami Dolphins

7–8

No clinching scenario this week

9%

10

Cincinnati Bengals

7–8

No clinching scenario this week

7%

NFC Playoff Picture

With no NFC teams playing on Christmas, there will be no Wednesday change to the playoff picture. Here's how things look:

Seed

Team

Record

Playoff Status

Playoff Likelihood

1

Detroit Lions

13–2

Clinched Division

100%

2

Philadelphia Eagles

12–3

Clinched Playoff Spot

100%

3

Los Angeles Rams

9–6

Clinched Playoff Spot

86%

4

Atlanta Falcons

8–7

Clinch NFC South with win + TB loss

58%

5

Minnesota Vikings

13–2

Clinched playoff spot

100%

6

Green Bay Packers

11–4

Clinched Wild Card

100%

7

Washington Commanders

10–5

Clinch berth with win or TB loss

95%

8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

8–7

No clinching scenario this week

48%

9

Seattle Seahawks

8–7

No clinching scenario this week

14%


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Josh Wilson
JOSH WILSON

Josh Wilson is the news director of the Breaking and Trending News team at Sports Illustrated. Before joining SI in 2024, he worked for FanSided in a variety of roles, most recently as senior managing editor of the brand’s flagship site. He has also served as a general manager of Sportscasting, the sports arm of a start-up sports media company, where he oversaw the site’s editorial and business strategy. Wilson has a bachelor’s degree in mass communications from SUNY Cortland and a master’s in accountancy from the Gies College of Business at the University of Illinois. He loves a good nonfiction book and enjoys learning and practicing Polish. Wilson lives in Chicago but was raised in upstate New York. He spent most of his life in the Northeast and briefly lived in Poland, where he ate an unhealthy amount of pastries for six months.