Betting the Jaguars: Week 10 vs. the 49ers

Which Jaguars props make the most sense in Week 10 vs. the 49ers?

All lines are from BetMGM

Week 9 Recap

Travis Kelce: o78.5 receiving yards (-115)❌

A.J. Brown: o82.5 receiving yards (-115)❌

Alvin Kamara: o92.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)❌

Overall Record: 23-18 (+7.81 units)

I really took one on the chin this week. The slate was filled with low totals and back up quarterbacks so I took what I thought was the safe route playing stars in solid spots. What can I say, I got got.

Week 10

Calvin Ridley: o55.5 receiving yards (-115)

Trevor Lawrence longest rush: o9.5 yards (-110)

Brock Purdy: o.5 interceptions (+105)

I have gone back and forth on who I think will win this game and as of Friday morning I still haven’t decided. Just because the 49ers have lost three games in a row doesn’t mean they are suddenly a bad team. They got the bye week to get back on track and they also added Chase Young to the defensive line rotation. The fact that the Jaguars are three-point underdogs isn’t that surprising and, to be honest, feels right. I think we get a good game regardless of who wins. With the spread so close and how much I’m wavering on the winner I’m going to stick to props this week.

The 49ers defense is led in the middle by linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. The duo’s presence forces teams to push the ball to the boundaries to avoid them and it’s well deserved treatment. Over the 49ers three game losing streak they gave up 108 yards to Amari Cooper, 209 yards to Jordan Addison/Brandon Powell, and 169 yards to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The success on the outside with receivers is parallel to what we just saw for the Jaguars against the Steelers so I think this leads us to another Calvin Ridley week. In that Steelers game, Ridley caught six of ten targets for 83 yards. It was a confidence-boosting performance as he made a couple of really nice grabs and he gets another solid matchup with another low receiving line.

Here’s a line I’m confused by and am taking advantage of. Trevor Lawrence's longest rush of over 9.5 yards has hit in six of eight games. The two he didn’t hit, his longest rush was eight in both. His lowest number of carries on the season is one(at Pittsburgh in the rain), other than that he has taken off at least three times every game. He already possesses elite pocket awareness and movement but he has really developed a knack for sensing when to tuck it and run this season. It feels like if he isn’t sure he can get the first down or gain a chunk he is still looking to pass, which is great. Another factor in play here is the 49ers pass rush, especially Chase Young in the mix. Look for Trevor to scramble a handful of times with this looking to be a competitive game.

Lastly I love Brock Purdy to throw an interception. ESPECIALLY at plus money. Per Daniel Griffis, the Jaguars lead the league in turnovers forced with 18, and over the 49ers three game losing streak, Purdy has five interceptions along with 9 turnover-worthy plays. Easy math right there. On top of that, I legitimately can’t count on one hand how many picks they’ve dropped, Darious Williams leads the league with 18 passes defensed, and Mike Caldwell has been great at bringing different looks and pressures forcing opposing quarterbacks into bad throws. The stars are aligning for Purdy to throw a pick and you can take that one to the Bank.

Other Bets

DK Metcalf: o64.5 receiving yards (-110)

Mike Evans: o60.5 receiving yards (-115)

I’m sure the rookie season for Emmanuel Forbes has not gone as he had planned. He’s been routinely picked on by opposing teams. Here are some WR1 performances against the Commanders by notable receivers:

Stefon Diggs: 111 yards

A.J. Brown: 175 yards

D.J. Moore: 230 yards

Drake London 125 yards

A.J. Brown: 130 yards

So, yeah, I really don’t think there’s too much explanation needed here. DK is #good at football and 64.5 yards is a low line against a terrible pass defense.

Mike Evans is currently on pace for his 10th 1,000-yard season in a row. Just every year of his career. No big deal. Absolutely insane. He has been incredibly consistent this year as he’s only posted two games with less than 60 yards. Take away the Saints game (Marshon Lattimore owns Mike Evans over his career), and his lowest target total this year is 5. Baker has played better this year than I expected and he clearly has trust in Evans. The Titans secondary is not great and they have allowed an opposing pass catcher to cross 60.5 yards in every game this season. I’m going with the consistency from Evans here combined with a plus matchup.