Betting the Jaguars: Week 14 vs. the Browns

Which bets make the most sense in Week 14?

All lines are from BetMGM

Week 13 Recap

Evan Engram: o42.5 receiving yards -110 (Two units) ✅

Jaguars Team Total: o23.5 points (-120) ✅

Tyreek Hill: o97.5 yards -120 (Two units) ✅

Overall Record: 33-26 (+7.67 units)

It feels good to have a clean sweep. After a cold streak, I got back on track last week with a 3-2 record and hopefully with the sweep this week we are now on the cusp of a burner. Stay tuned. Playing only three bets and placing two units on two of them proved to be a smart strategy. Not only was I very confident in both Evan Engram and Tyreek Hill but there have been a few times this season where I picked five bets just to pick five bets.

It’s important to look back on where you went wrong when trying to improve and quality over quantity sometimes is the play. Not only did I get the sweep but there wasn’t a single bet this week that even gave me a sweat. I won’t be counting on that again but I will definitely take it.

This week I’ve made the decision to not make any of my official plays in the Jaguars game. With Trevor Lawrence’s uncertainty, there aren’t any player props available and understandably so. My thoughts on a spread or a total bet would change depending on who starts for the Jaguars so I’m not comfortable placing a bet there until I know for sure who’s starting. 

I will say that I do think Trevor plays and if he does I like the Jaguars to cover the three-point spread. I expect the defense to play much better and they don’t have to play against Ja’Marr Chase so it makes either Browns quarterback a lot easier. If the news hits that Trevor is playing I will probably put a bet on them to cover but I’m not including that bet or any other Jaguars bets in my official tally.

Lately around the Jaguar Report stomping grounds it has been hot take season so I’m joining in on the fun. I forgot to mention it on my podcast this week so I wanted to include it here ... 

Travis Etienne will throw a touchdown pass this week. That’s right. You read that correctly. The Jaguars will get to the goal line where things haven’t exactly gone as planned. One thing they have done lately in short yardage is go outside. It worked beautifully against the Bengals Monday night and it makes more sense moving forward with the offensive line shake up. Press Taylor is reaching deep into the bag for this one and we’re getting a goal line pitch to Etienne, who then passes it to a wide open Luke Farrell in the end zone. There you have it. Now let’s get to things that can actually make money.

Justin Jefferson: o70.5 receiving yards (-135)

Courtland Sutton: o57.5 receiving yards (-115)

Bijan Robinson: o95.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)

Justin Jefferson is back and thank you, football gods. He is officially off the injury report as of Friday and has no restrictions going into the game Sunday against the Raiders. We are better off as football fans with JJ healthy and on the field so I will be very happy to watch him play again. The Vikings have desperately missed his presence and you better believe they are ready to unleash Jefferson in the middle of a playoff push. I get he is returning from injury so I see why they set this line a little lower (for his standards) but given he doesn’t even carry an injury tag I’m not at all worried about him. The Raiders are a middle-of-the-pack defense so the matchup doesn’t wow me or scare me away but like I said, the Vikings have clawed their way into playoff relevance without him so I expect a big workload now that he is back to get over the hump.

The Broncos offense has somewhat come back to life under Sean Peyton. It looked rough to start but things have come around and part of that has been Russell Wilson making plays to Courtland Sutton. Over the last month Sutton has seen at least five targets a game and has averaged 64 yards a game. He has hit this prop in three straight games and up next gets the Chargers. They are second to last in the league in passing yards per game allowed with 265.8 and they have let an opposing player cross 57.5 yards in every game except for one. They are a terrible defense no matter how you slice it and have been taken advantage of through the air all season. The Broncos have also found themselves in the playoff picture and they are looking to gain a game on the Steelers, who just lost Thursday night to the Patriots, so they have everything to play for still.

Lastly I really like Bijan Robinson o95.5 rushing plus receiving yards. Another shout out to the football gods here since Bijan has received 16+ carries three weeks in a row. He had a tough go this past weekend against the Jets but in week 10 had 95 yards rushing alone and had 91 yards rushing in week 11. He continues to see good involvement in the passing game averaging just over 22 yards a game through the air so I like this play from his usage standpoint alone. However, the Buccaneers have been giving up yardage on the ground recently giving up 134.3 yards a game over their last three games and they are now set to be without Vita Vea. His presence for their run game is as massive as Marcell Dareus’ was for the 2017 Jaguars defense. They will also be without Devin White. The combination of missing both of those guys in the middle of the defense is going to be huge and I’m looking for Bijan to shine this week.