How the Jaguars Can Clinch the No. 1 Overall Pick in Week 18

What are the scenarios in which the Jaguars finish Sunday with the No. 1 overall draft pick?

The Jacksonville Jaguars will hold either the No. 1 or No. 2 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft after the dust settles in Week 18. But will it be a repeat of last year's top pick, or will the Jaguars pick second overall for the first time since 2013? 

Due to an eight-game losing streak, there isn't much mystery about the Jaguars' final draft slot. Losses to the Houston Texans and New York Jets helped solidify the Jaguars' position at the top of the draft, leaving only them and the Detroit Lions as potential candidates to pick No. 1 entering Sunday's slate of games. 

With the Jaguars sitting at 2-14 and the Lions at 2-13-1, there are only a few different scenarios at hand that could impact whether the Jaguars pick first or second overall come April.

The latest team to have back-to-back No. 1 overall picks is the Cleveland Browns, who held the top pick in 1999 and 2000, then again in 2017 and '18. The former occurrence saw them shoot their shot with quarterback Tim Couch—who eventually led them to a playoff appearance—and Courtney Brown, who was plagued with injuries.

In 2017, the Browns took defensive end Myles Garrett before taking quarterback Baker Mayfield the next season.

The NFL has held 86 drafts and in that span, there have only seven occurrences of the same team having back-to-back No. 1 picks. The first time it happened was in the first two years of the draft with the Philadelphia Eagles holding the honor.

In 1939 and 1940, the Chicago Cardinals drafted first overall in two straight years, a part of a 10-year streak of losing seasons. In 1976 and 1977, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had the No. 1 pick, drafting Lee Roy Selmon and Ricky Bell.

Tampa Bay received back-to-back No. 1 picks again a decade later in 1986 and 1987, while the Cincinnati Bengals selected Dan Wilkinson first overall in 1994 and Ki-Juna Carter first overall a year later.

The Jaguars currently look to be favorites to follow the Browns' strategy, though in reverse order. The Jaguars took Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 overall last April while the consensus top-two players in the 2022 NFL Draft so far are Oregon edge defender Kayvon Thibodeaux and Michigan edge defender Aidan Hutchinson. 

So, how can the Jaguars end Sunday with the No. 1 overall pick? Here are all of the possible scenarios. 

With a loss

The most likely scenario that sees the Jaguars get the top pick is a loss to the Colts in Week 18. The Colts are still playing for playoff implications and will pull out all of the stops against a Jaguars team they barely beat in Week 10, but the Jaguars are also fresh off a 50-10 loss to the New England Patriots and have lost to much worse teams than the Colts over the last month. 

Considering the trajectory of these two teams, it would be a shock to see the Jaguars walk out of Sunday with their third win of the season. The Colts haven't won in Jacksonville since 2014, but Sunday is their best chance yet considering the attrition that has set into both the Jaguars' roster and coaching staff. 

While a win could complicate things, a loss makes it simple. Lose on Sunday, and the Jaguars get the top pick. 

With a win AND a Lions win

The Jaguars can still win on Sunday and earn the No. 1 overall pick, but they would need some help from the Lions. The Lions are set to host the 13-3 Green Bay Packers on Sunday and will do everything they can to end the season on a high note, while the Packers don't have much to play for considering they are already locked in as the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Aaron Rodgers is still expected to play on Sunday, but the Jaguars at least have that going for them. 

If both teams win on Sunday, then the Jaguars will still be slotted to pick No. 1 overall over the Lions due to the Lions' tie with the Steelers earlier this season. Even without the tie, the Jaguars would still be the favorite to pick No. 1 overall as well due to their lower strength of schedule.

In short, the Jaguars can win on Sunday and still pick No. 1 overall, but they would need the Lions to hold up their end of the bargain against the Packers. 

With a Lions' win

This one is obvious. If the Lions lose on Sunday, the Jaguars will pick No. 1 overall no matter what happens vs. the Colts. This is pretty cut and dry, and also presents a scenario that is just as likely as the Jaguars actually losing themselves. 

In short, there is a strong chance the Jaguars end Sunday with the top pick in their possession. The only way they don't is if they win and the Lions lose. This is of course possible, but far from likely.