2023 NFL Draft: Bears/Panthers Trade Has Big Ramifications for Jaguars’ AFC South Rivals

The Colts and Texans will be missing out on the No. 1 overall pick as a result of the major trade.

There is a new team at No. 1 overall.

After holding onto the No. 1 overall pick for the last several months, the Chicago Bears finally pulled the trigger on an expected trade for the first pick after finding a willing partner in the Carolina Panthers.

The Panthers paid a big price for the pick, dealing wide receiver D.J. Moore, the 2023 No. 9 overall pick, a 2023 second-round pick, a first-round selection in 2024 and a second in 2025 for the draft's top selection.

The Panthers obviously are moving up for a quarterback, leapfrogging the several quarterback-needy teams in the top-eight. They now have their pick of Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Alabama's Bryce Young, Florida's Anthony Richardson, or Kentucky's Will Levis. 

In doing so, they are leaving teams like the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders, and others in the dust for the draft's potential top quarterback.

In doing so, the Panthers and Bears have changed the trajectory of the AFC South. There is no guarantee the Texans and Colts were making attempts to move to No. 1 overall, but it is fair to wonder if their chances at acquiring their top quarterback just decreased exponentially. 

In doing so, the entire AFC South's future has been changed. The Texans and Colts still seem like safe bets to take quarterbacks, but the path to doing so has just changed in a big way. 

Perhaps the Colts and Texans don't need the draft's first pick to land their guy. But for now, they may officially have to cope with the fact that they won't land their dream quarterback.

This isn't to say the Colts or Texans are doomed, but it does make the next 50 days interesting for the Jacksonville Jaguars' rivals.

There are obviously scenarios where a team doesn't take the first quarterback drafted and ends up better for it overall. The Chargers ended up just fine with the draft's third quarterback in Justin Herbert in 2020. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were the third and fifth quarterbacks drafted in 2018. Mahomes was drafted after Mitch Trubisky, and Dak Prescott after the likes of Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch, Christian Hackenberg, Cody Kessler, and Connor Cook.

These are just recent examples. The draft is ultimately a crapshoot, and the fact that the Colts and Texans aren't drafting the first quarterback in the draft isn't a sure loss.

"I don't necessarily know if (trading up is) the right course of business," Colts general manager Chirs Ballard said at the NFL Scouting Combine. "When we meet as a staff and we say, 'OK, this is what we need to do, this is the guy for the next 10 to 15 years,' and we think he's the right guy, sure, we'll do it. But who's to say we won't get one at No. 4?"

The Texans are in better positioning than the Colts, sitting at No. 2 overall. And perhaps the Texans' No. 1 quarterback isn't who the Panthers will take with the first pick.

But for now, the Texans and Colts are playing by the Panthers' rules. The best-case scenario for each franchise would have been to be able to land the top pick so they could ensure drafting their top prospect. Now, they let the Panthers pick the song and they have to dance along to it. 

For a team like the Jaguars that already has its long-term quarterback on the roster, all it can do is sit back and watch. For now, at least half of the AFC South figures to be taking a quarterback in next month's first round. The only question will be which quarterbacks the Colts and Texans now land to compete against Trevor Lawrence next year.