3 Observations on the Jaguars Franchise Tagging Josh Allen

What does Josh Allen's franchise tag mean for the Jaguars?

Josh Allen is officially franchise-tagged. 

What seemed like one of the most obvious decisions in all of the NFL actually came down to the wire, with there being some hope for an Allen extension before the tag deadline at 4 p.m. -- hope that Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke seemed to confirm in his statement. 

"We were not able to reach an agreement on a contract extension with Josh before today's deadline, and thus, we have tagged him," Baalke said in a statement.

"We certainly value Josh's leadership on the field, in the locker room and in the community. Our objective to keep Josh in Jacksonville in the coming years remains unchanged and negotiations will continue."

So, what do we make of the Jaguars decision to tag Allen?

Jaguars made progress but simply started talks too late 

Don't get it twisted -- the Jaguars did make progress on contract talks with Allen over the last week and even in the last few days, per sources familiar with the situation. Talks between the two sides aren't as far apart as even some other franchise-tagged players. But talks were also not close enough for a deal to happen before 4 p.m., and that is on the Jaguars. 

The Jaguars have had a philosophy since Baalke became general manager to not negotiate contract extensions in-season. They like to let the season play out and then start contract talks shortly after. This is a Baalke-specific trait, too, as the Jaguars have paid free-agents in-season in the past, such as Telvin Smith. 

If the Jaguars had truly begun negotiations with Allen last offseason, or even in the middle of this past offseason, then the chances of a deal being struck would have been significantly higher. Progress was made, but it is tough to do a eight- or nine-figure deal in a matter of a few weeks. It is trying to speed race a process that typically takes more time to hammer out -- time the Jaguars didn't allow themselves to have.

Repeating the Evan Engram situation seems like the most likely outcome

The fact the Jaguars made attempts to re-sign Allen before the franchise tag deadline means they still have a good chance to extend him at some time before the July 15 deadline. If the Jaguars had no interest in doing so, they would have tagged Allen a week ago like the Cincinnati Bengals did with Tee Higgins. 

The Jaguars have already done this twice under Baalke, tagging Cam Robinson before extending him in April in 2022 and then tagging Evan Engram and extending him in July in 2023. There is precedence with the way the Jaguars have handled Allen, and there are no indications as of today that the sides are far enough apart on a deal for it to not happen before July. 

In short, the most likely outcome of the Allen situation looks a lot like the Engram situation. With that said, the Engram situation helped the Jaguars lose Jawaan Taylor because it meant he was able to hear other offers. Could it happen again with Calvin Ridley?

Odds of Calvin Ridley leaving in free agency just went up

The biggest downside to Josh Allen receiving the franchise tag has always been the Calvin Ridley situation. The most efficient move the Jaguars could have made this offseason was to re-sign Allen and then tag Ridley, but this was never likely with Allen's contract situation looming. The Jaguars could only use the tag to prevent one player from leaving, and the Jaguars would naturally prefer to potentially lose Ridley as opposed to Allen.

This seems like a real possibility, if not a likelihood, after today. Ridley indicated after the season that he would prefer to return to Jacksonville in 2024, but not all situations are even. There have been multiple reports over the last several days that Ridley will command a large number on the open market. A number that could potentially climb to between $23-25 million. 

Could the Jaguars pay this number? They could with a few more moves, such as restructuring Cam Robinson or Christian Kirk or releasing Brandon Scherff or Zay Jones. But the most likely scenario is Ridley begins to hear offers on March 11 that could blow the Jaguars' offer out of the water. And the Jaguars, again, have only themselves to blame if this happens, because an earlier Allen deal would have made it impossible.