3 Observations on the Jaguars Replacing Riley Patterson With Brandon McManus

The Jaguars made a surprising move at kicker on Thursday, but what does the move mean as they enter the key stages of the 2023 offseason?

The Jacksonville Jaguars made a surprising change at kicker Thursday, switching out reliable Riley Patterson for former Denver Broncos kicker Brandon McManus. 

Patterson was nearly perfect for the Jaguars during the second-half of the season and made a game-winning field goal vs. the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card Round,, but now he will have to look elsewhere for a starting role as the Jaguars moved on after just one season.

What does the move mean and what do we make of the addition? We break it down below. 

Context is key when examining McManus' 2022 season 

There is no denying that 2022 wasn't the best season McManus had as a Bronco. He finished with the third-lowest field goal percentage of his career and his lowest since 2017. His 77.8% rate was No. 29 among starting kickers last year, while Patterson was No. 17 at 85.7%. Add in Patterson being nearly a decade younger and coming up big for the Jaguars in the final moments of the season, and it is understandable why some may be confused at the timing of this move.

This is when contested is needed, though. McManus hit a lower rate of field goals last season, but in the four previous years he had averaged 83.1% and showed no signs of slowing down. McManus attempted 13 field goals of 50 or more yards last year (with two attempts over 60 yards), which ranked second in the NFL last year. By comparison, Patterson's three attempts from that range were tied for the eighth-fewest in the league. Five of McManus' eight misses last year came from 50 or further, but two of these were 60+ yard attempts. In short, it makes complete sense why his field goal percentage was so low, especially compared to a shorter-distance kicker like Patterson.

One potential reason the Jaguars aren't carrying both kickers 

One big question that fans have seemingly had in the wake of this move is why the Jaguars didn't keep Patterson on the roster and instead waived James McCourt. One potential reason could be that this move actually helps Patterson secure another landing spot easier than he would otherwise, while the Jaguars are signaling that they never had any intent on letting a kicker competition take place. With an experienced veteran like McManus, you don't need one.

With Patterson now on waivers, he has a chance to land with another team that has kicking questions. Not every team has their kicker spot solidified at this point in the offseason, with spots available in Denver, Tampa Bay, Dallas, and potentially other places. If the Jaguars had kept Patterson on the roster for a competition that he would never win in training camp, then he would have considerably fewer potential open landing spots. The NFL is a business at the end of the day, but the Jaguars are still potentially doing Patterson a favor with their decision to not carry both kickers.

Jaguars' scoring potential gets a rare late-May boost  

You won't often see teams add a big boost to their scoring potential at this time of the year, but the Jaguars unquestionably get that in McManus. No matter the opinion on moving on from Patterson, it can't be argued that McManus has a bigger leg and gives the Jaguars more options as a kicker. He consistently kicks from 50+ yards and has even made kicks from beyond 60. This is a range the Jaguars knee they didn't have last year.

How does this change the Jaguars' strategy? One would think it would mean less fourth-down attempts past the 40-yard line. The Jaguars frequently opted to go for it instead of sending Patterson out for a long field goal in 2022, and the results were mixed. With McManus, the Jaguars can be expected to settle for points more often, but it should even out to actually increase their potential scoring output each week.