5 Observations on the Jaguars’ QB Situation, What It Means Moving Forward

What does the move to start Jake Luton in place of an injured Minshew mean for the Jaguars, both in the short-term and in the future?

2020 has been a tough and strange year for the Jacksonville Jaguars. To add to the 1-6 season, the Jaguars will now be without their starting quarterback for an undetermined period of time, adding to the already piling list of woes for the last place squad. 

With a thumb injury to second-year quarterback Gardner Minshew, the Jaguars will now start their sixth quarterback in the last 40 games in Week 9 against the Houston Texans. There was already an abundance of questions surrounding Minshew and Jacksonville's quarterback position before Minshew's injury, and those questions are now amplified with his absence. 

With Minshew on the mend, the Jaguars will be turning to sixth-round rookie quarterback Jake Luton. What does the move to Luton and the injury to Minshew mean for the Jaguars in 2020 and beyond? We attempt to answer that question here.

The decision to turn to Jake Luton instead of Mike Glennon was a logical and obvious one

When it was first acknowledged that Gardner Minshew may miss time with his thumb injury, the general thought was that Jake Luton and Mike Glennon would compete for the starting job. Glennon is an eight-year veteran who has been the backup in every game this season, while Luton has yet to take an NFL snap due to the canceled preseason. But on Monday, head coach Doug Marrone made it abundantly clear that Luton had the edge over Glennon, at least when it comes to who will start in Week 9 vs. Houston. 

When one considers the options the Jaguars had in lieu of Minshew's injury, this decision looks not only correct but also glaringly obvious enough to the point where it should be a concern if Glennon was even considered by Marrone. It is understandable for a head coach on the hot seat to not want to start a rookie quarterback, especially in 2020, but what could the Jaguars gain from starting Glennon? He has shown over the course of his career that he is a marginal NFL passer, and it is fair to wonder if he is even backup-quality. On the other hand, Luton is a complete unknown with potential. He may fall flat on his face, but Marrone and everyone else knows what they will see from Glennon. This isn't the case for Luton, giving him the edge.

The timing and circumstances of Minshew's eventual return are completely unknown

This certainly doesn't seem like a situation in which Gardner Minshew has a clear path to getting back onto the field. Minshew will, of course, have to heal enough to the point where he can play to his full strength. When will that be? Marrone didn't have a concrete answer for this on Monday, suggesting that perhaps the Jaguars don't even know when, or if, Minshew will return in 2020.

What if Luton is playing well when Minshew recovers? This would essentially be the same situation the Jaguars found themselves in last season, though they would have even fewer reasons to turn back to Minshew than they had to turn back to Nick Foles. If Luton is keeping the offense afloat in Minshew's absence, it is hard to see Marrone pulling him. In fact, it may take Luton failing completely for Minshew to come back as the starter. 

“I mean you’d like to, as a coach, be able to say, “Yeah, as soon as Gardner’s ready he’ll be able to come back.’ But I think when you’re at the record where we are now, we’re at 1-6, we have to see what this kid can do," Marrone said Monday.

"I mean if this kid comes in and plays extremely well, then what? Then you’re going to say, ‘How come you’re going to bench him and play the other kid?’ I just think it’s common sense. Opportunities create themselves and if he does well, then we’ll see where we’re going, and we’ll make that decision when the time comes.”

This is what happened with Minshew last season. He has less of a hold on the starting position than his predecessor did, however, creating more questions about his return than there were about the return of Foles.

Jacksonville is once again forced to explore all options in seek of a franchise passer

Nobody can blame the Jaguars for taking a swing on Minshew as the starting quarterback in 2020. He was arguably the best rookie quarterback in the league in 2019 and was able to win six games on one of the league's worst rosters. Considering the construction of Jacksonville's roster in 2020 was never going to lead to them being a contending team, it made perfect sense for them to roll with Minshew for the season to see if he could prove himself as the franchise quarterback. And while Minshew being injured doesn't say he can't or won't be that quarterback, the fact that the Jaguars sit at 1-6 and are taking the position week-by-week instead of absolutely going back to him indicate the Jaguars know they don't have a franchise passer.

But the current situation makes it clear the Jaguars know what the first seven games have heavily suggested -- they don't have their franchise quarterback yet. While Minshew is a solid quarterback who is certainly better than Foles, Cody Kessler, Blaine Gabbert and Blake Bortles, he has been unable to prove he can be a franchise passer since he started out hot in the first two weeks. He had nine more chances to do so after the bye, but it is now unknown how many more he will get. That alone speaks volumes and indicates the Jaguars will once again have to consider all possible options at quarterback.

Little should be expected from the passing game in Week 9

While Luton impressed the Jaguars' coaching staff during training camp, any expectations for the passing game in Week 9 should be marginal at best. After all, we just saw two rookie quarterbacks make their debuts in Week 8 in Tua Tagovailoa ad Ben DeNucci, and each was completely disastrous in terms of passing production. Considering the lack of a preseason and offseason programs for rookies, it shouldn't be surprising to see one struggle in their debut. Instead, this should be the expectation.

Add in Jacksonville's issues on offense as a whole this season (pass blocking, converting third downs) and Luton isn't exactly walking into a stellar situation either. For this reason alone, it would be surprising to see the Jaguars lean on Luton this week, even if they are high on him. This game is much more likely to focus on James Robinson than it is to focus on Luton, for example.

The return of investment on Minshew has been terrific, even despite the failures of 2020

Even if Gardner Minshew doesn't get the nod back at quarterback when he returns, there should be zero question that the Jaguars still hit the pick out of the park. There is surely some disappointment that we are still asking the question of who Jacksonville's quarterback of the future is, and there is no denying that 2020 has been a failure on all fronts, but that doesn't change the fact that Minshew was a terrific selection.

Minshew was selected with No. 178 overall pick in 2019 and has since given the Jaguars 19 starts, seven wins, 5,126 passing yards and 34 touchdowns. All things considered, that is about as much as you can ask from a sixth-round quarterback. If Minshew showed he was just an OK backup, he would've been a good pick. Instead he showed he is a quarterback who can win on Sundays and put up solid numbers, making him the best sixth-round pick of Dave Caldwell's tenure and one of the best in the league in recent years.