5 Predictions for Jaguars vs. Colts in Week 1

In just a few short days, the Jacksonville Jaguars will be kicking off their 2020 season against the Indianapolis Colts, giving the Jaguars their first chance to see what this year's team will truly look like.

Due to a lack of preseason as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Jaguars (and the other 31 teams) are still a bit of a mystery in terms of the type of product they are going to put onto the field. Because of this, it could be hard to hypothesize what the Jaguars could look like when it comes to Sunday's 1 p.m. kickoff.

But with what we know about both the Jaguars from camp and about the Colts from past matchups, we have opted to give a couple of statistical predictions for Week 1, just as we will for every Jaguars game this season.

So, who do we think stands out on Sunday? We make our arguments below.

James Robinson gets 18 total touches

This may not be bold to some, but it needs to be considered just how much of an impact Chris Thompson could play into the running back rotation. He knows Jay Gruden's offensive scheme more than likely anybody on the roster sans Gardner Minshew II, and he projected as the team's third-down back even before Leonard Fournette was released. Because of that, we don't think likely starting running back James Robinson absolutely dominates the snap count.

But with that said, we do think Robinson, who is an undrafted rookie, will handle the vast majority of the rushing reps. 15 carries sounds like a healthy estimate considering the team will likely have to air the ball out in the event they start to trail, but this gives the Jaguars enough chances to see what Robinson can do in most game situations. He should also be expected to catch a couple of passes because while Thompson is the likely lead back, the Jaguars seemingly trust Robinson in the backfield on passing downs as well.

"My biggest surprise with him is his ability to catch the ball and block. He’s a great blocker; he has great hands. He’s picked up everything extremely well," Gruden said earlier this week.

Tyler Eifert catches seven passes, including a touchdown

One of the strongest connections in Jaguars' training camp was that between Minshew and veteran tight end Tyler Eifert. Jacksonville brought in Eifert as a free agent after the team had disastrous results in terms of production from the tight end position over the last two seasons, and Eifert has quickly established himself as the top tight end in Gruden's offense in Jacksonville.

With Eifert's connection with Minshew in mind, it is also worth noting just how much Jay Gruden utilizes tight ends. Gruden runs a lot of 22 and 12 personnel, so Eifert was already figured to spend a lot of Sunday on the field, but even more so now that rookie tight end Tyler Davis has been ruled out of Sunday's game, which is in addition to second-year tight end Josh Oliver being out for the season with a foot injury. We believe Minshew will target Eifert early and often on Sunday, including at least one touchdown thanks to his presence in the red zone.

Philip Rivers throws for 315 yards and three touchdowns

While Philip Rivers has a deservedly sterling reputation due to his track record of success as a quarterback, it is fair for most on the outside to wonder if he still has "it". He is 38-years-old and is coming off of a season where he threw 23 touchdowns with 20 interceptions, a year in which his age started to show. But with that said, Rivers should be expected to have a strong day on Sunday due to the circumstances.

On Sunday, Rivers will have two things working in his favor: a track record of success against the Jaguars and the lack of experience in Jacksonville's secondary. The Jaguars have four rookie cornerbacks in their six-man unit, and their safety depth isn't much more experienced than that. The only player in the secondary who has more than NFL season as a starter under his belt is D.J. Hayden. Then you have to factor in the fact that Rivers has dominated the Jaguars since they transitioned to the defensive scheme they now run (2013 was the first year it was implemented).

Just since Todd Wash became defensive coordinator in 2016, Rivers has completed 54-of-83 passes (65% completion rate) for 769 yards with nine touchdowns and just one interception, going 2-1 in the process. In those games, Rivers' teams outscored the Jaguars 100-44. Even with Rivers fresh off maybe his worst NFL season, he should still be expected to have a strong game on Sunday.

Jonathan Taylor and Marlon Mack combine for 165 rushing yards

Last season, the Jaguars allowed 2,229 rushing yard son 435 carries, and the 5.1 yard per carry mark was the second-worst in the NFL. They also allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the league and 114 first downs via runs, the sixth-worst figure in the league. Add in the fact that the Jaguars lost key run defenders Rodney Gunter and Al Woods before the season began, and the Jaguars' current outlook against the run is shaky even with the additions of Timmy Jernigan and DaVon Hamilton.

To make matters worse for the Jaguars, the Colts had field days against the Jaguars when running the ball last season, rushing for 396 yards and five touchdowns in two games. Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor are two extremely talented backs who are going to run behind one of the NFL's best offensive lines on Sunday, and they are in an extremely favorable matchup. If the two don't combine for at least over 150 yards, it should be a surprise.

Gardner Minshew throws three touchdowns

Appearing in 14 games last season, Gardner Minshew threw for three touchdowns or more in just two games last season. One of those came against the New York Jets in Week eight and the second came against none other than the Indianapolis Colts in Week 17. Minshew's performance against the Colts in the season finale saw him post his third-best completion percentage (69.23%), third-most yards (295) and fourth-best quarterback rating (106.2).

If Minshew had success against the Colts with a worse supporting cast and worse offensive scheme and play-caller than he will have entering Sunday, then it wouldn't be too much of a leap to think he can have similar success in Week 1. Add in the fact that the Colts' physical duo at cornerback of Rock Ya-Sin and Xavier Rhodes doesn't have the speed to cover Jacksonville's athletic receiving group downfield for four quarters, and there are some things working in Minshew's favor.

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