Jaguars vs. Texans: 5 Questions and Game Predictions

How does the Jaguar Report staff view Sunday vs. the Texans?

The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) have an important home test this Sunday, hosting the Houston Texans (0-3-1) in a chance to build a lead at the top of the AFC South standings. 

So, how do we at Jaguar Report see Sunday playing out? John Shipley and Brett Hawn weigh in below.

1) Can Trevor Lawrence rebound against Lovie Smith's defense?

John Shipley: I think so. I think it is unfair to see how Trevor Lawrence has improved throughout the entire course of 2022 and then at the same time believe he is the turnover and mistake-prone player he was in Week 4. Lawrence had an awful week without question, but he faces a much easier defense and much better conditions this week than compared to last week. I would expect Lawrence to have a big week.

Brett Hawn: Turnovers plagued Trevor Lawrence last week against the Philadelphia Eagles top-ranked defense, amassing 5 total for the game in a 29-21 loss. The Houston Texans offer Lawrence an excellent opportunity to rebound this week. Their unit is one of the worst in the league this year, ranking as the worst run defense (688 total rushing yards, 5.1ypc) and not much better in the passing game thus far. I strongly believe that Lawrence’s performance against the Eagles was simply because he was facing a top defensive unit, the Houston Texans are not close to resembling that. Expect a bounce-back performance for him here.

2) How big of a loss is Foley Fatukasi?

John Shipley: I do not think one can understate the kind of loss Foley Fatukasi is to the Jaguars' run defense. The structure of the Jaguars' defense places a lot on Fatukasi's plate, which makes sense considering the investment the Jaguars made in him this offseason. In the snaps without Fatukasi last week, the Jaguars' defense simply looked less dangerous on passing and rushing downs, with their depth exposed. The Texans are a top-10 rushing team in terms fo EPA and success rate and Dameon Pierce is on a hot run, so this loss is worth remembering. 

Brett Hawn: The loss of Foley Fatukasi is huge, as he has been one of the Jaguars' better run defenders through the early portion of the season. In a season to forget for the Houston Texans thus far, rookie running back Dameon Pierce has been exceptional. In his last two games against the Bears and Chargers, Pierce has rushed for 201 total yards on 34 carries (5.9 yards per attempt) and two touchdowns. The Jaguars gave up 210 rushing yards last game but ranked as the number-one rush defense in the first three weeks of the season. No Fatukasi will make things a lot tougher but this unit has shown that they are more than capable of neutralizing an opposing rushing attack. 

3) Who is the most important player on offense and defense?

John Shipley: On offense, I am going with Trevor Lawrence. I know that is a bit of a cop-out and could be suggested as the most important offensive player week in and week out due to his position, but this week is a week where Lawrence truly feels like the most important player on the offense. The Texans are a bad run defense but the bread-and-butter for the Jaguars' offense is through the air, and the Jaguars will only go as far as Trevor Lawrence goes. 

Defensively, I am going with Devin Lloyd. The Jaguars' defense has more or less played to the quality of their linebackers each week, with the defense dominating in Weeks 2 and 3 while Lloyd was one of the best players on the field. Lloyd's two worst games -- vs. Washington and vs. Philadelphia -- are the two worst games the defense has had. It is not that simple, but the trend makes sense this week against a tough-running Houston offense.

Brett Hawn: James Robinson is the most important player on the offensive side of the ball. He did not have the best week against the Eagles, only rushing for 29 yards on 8 attempts, but the Philly defense is a top-two defense in football to this point, so I would not point to this performance as a sign of things to come. I expect Robinson to take full advantage of an abysmal Texans rush defense, and establishing the run early will make things easier on Lawrence as he looks to bounce back. 

On defense, Josh Allen and the Jaguars pass rush are the most important factors to the defensive game plan. Davis Mills has 4 interceptions so far on the year and has not been effective under pressure to this point. If Josh Allen and the Jaguars pass rush can get to Mills early and often, it is very possible that the Jaguars can add to their nine takeaways. 

4) Biggest storyline entering Sunday?

John Shipley: Can the Jaguars flush last week? 

The Jaguars make it a big deal to put Sunday behind them each week. Whether win or lose, the Jaguars closely abide by the 24-hour rule and make sure to move forward without the past as soon as Monday had come and gone. That was important in Week 2 when they looked past the Washington lost and went on to dominate the Colts. Can they come out with the same short memory against the Texans after last week's mistake-filled loss?

Brett Hawn: Can the Jaguars slow down Dameon Pierce?

The Texans rookie running back has been the best offensive player this season and his production on the field thus far makes him a threat in the backfield. This Jaguars defense was able to hold Jonathon Taylor to 4 yards on 5 carries in Week Two, so it is reasonable to expect them to make life hard on Pierce and the Texans offensive line all game long. 

5) Score prediction?

John Shipley: The Texans are better than they have been given credit for, but your record is your record. The Jaguars are the better team and should win unless they get in their own way. I say Jaguars 31, Texans 13.

Brett Hawn: A bounce-back game from Trevor Lawrence and a dominant performance from the Jaguars defense will lead to a swift victory over an AFC South rival to the tune of a 24-7 victory.