Lions Rapid Ascent Since 2021 Should Make Jaguars Reflect on Their Own Process
Three years ago, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions were in very similar places.
Each team was entering Year One of a rebuild. Each team needed a new head coach, a new general manager, and a new quarterback. Each team was faced with a clean slate and hopes for an era of finally pushing the right buttons.
Fast forward to today, and it is staggering just how far ahead the Lions are.
Detroit is fresh off one of the best seasons in franchise history, winning their division with a 12-5 record and then knocking off the Los Angeles Rams with a Wild Card victory on Sunday. The Lions will likely be big favorites next week, too, as they face the winner of Eagles vs. Buccaneers.
The Jaguars, meanwhile, are looking up at the Lions. Two teams that were given equal starting points have gone in opposite directions, and the Jaguars need to take stock and figure out why that is.
Yes, a year ago the Jaguars were the team in the driver's seat. But it is worth noting that the Lions finished with the same 9-8 record the Jaguars had -- and dismantled the Jaguars at home in the same season. The reason the Jaguars were a playoff team and the Lions weren't had everything to do with the weakness of the AFC South.
After three years of building, nobody can deny the Lions are clearly ahead of the Jaguars. Their roster is better. Their results have been better, too, with the Lions holding a 24-26-1 record over the last three years as compared to the Jaguars' 21-30 record.
And while Jaguars fans may counter with "the Lions didn't hire Urban Meyer," it is worth noting the Lions only won one more game than the Jaguars in Dan Campbell's inaugural season.
Looking at how the two teams have spent resources over the last three years, it isn't hard to see where the disconnect is.
The Jaguars have selected 29 players, including seven in the top-50. Of those 29 players, the Jaguars have a combined Weighted Career Approximate Value of 164 -- 5.65 WAV per pick. Of those picks, the Jaguars have drafted zero Pro Bowlers (alternates do not count), and zero All-Pros.
The only true Pro Bowlers and All-Pro for the Jaguars in this span have been Josh Allen, who was acquired in 2019, and Ross Matiscik, who was acquired in 2020.
Counter this with the Lions, who have selected 23 players and nine players in the top-50. Of those 23 players, the Lions have a combined Weighted Career Approximate Value of 182 -- 7.91 WAV per pick. Of those picks, the Lions have seen three picks become Pro Bowlers and two become first-team All-Pros. This includes first-rounders Penei Sewell and Aidan Hutchinson, second-rounder Sam LaPorta, and Day 3 pick Amon-Ra St. Brown.
In short, the Lions have drafted better than the Jaguars by a healthy margin. The Jaguars' best pick by WAV has been Trevor Lawrence, but otherwise the Lions have seen their top picks produce at a higher clip, while the Lions have also found more valuable picks outside of the first-round.
Then there is spending.
Over the last three free agency classes, the Jaguars have signed 60 free agents to the tune of a combined $258.9 million in guaranteed money.
By comparison, the Lions have signed 68 free agents for $122.5 million in guarantees.
The Lions have signed more free agents, but the Jaguars have more than doubled them in guaranteed money shelled out. The Jaguars have taken major swings in free agency to accelerate their rebuild, but what it gotten them? Two 9-8 seasons and a playoff win?
Brad Holmes and Trent Baalke were given the same playing field in 2021. The biggest difference is that Holmes and the Lions have done it with one coach, while the Jaguars fired Meyer after a year and replaced him with Doug Pederson.
But when breaking down the numbers, it is clear: the Lions have gotten more bang for their buck in both the draft and free-agency. And as a result, they have fulfilled the rebuild the Jaguars were always supposed to have.
