Pitching the Impossible: Trevor Lawrence for 2022 NFL MVP

Jaguar Report's Ryan Michael makes the long-shot case for Trevor Lawrence as the MVP for the 2022 NFL season.

If you had to select one NFL player that best matched the definition of most valuable this season, who would it be and why?

The answer—of course—would depend upon your interpretation of the title: most valuable

If most valuable means the player with the best statistics, the answer would be Patrick Mahomes and his NFL single-season record 5,608 total yards of offense. If most valuable means the player with the best analytics marks, the answer would again be Patrick Mahomes and his league-leading DYAR (1,752) and Total QBR (77.6). If most valuable means the player with the most dynamic/effective playing style, the answer would be Jalen Hurts and his 3,701 passing yards, 22 touchdown passes, 760 rushing yards and 13 touchdown runs.

Arguments can also be made for Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and a healthy Tua Tagovailoa.
For as great as all of those players have been, none of them would get my vote in 2022.

My criteria for most valuable player is pretty straightforward: Totality of on-field performance in relation to context of playing situation. Who contributed the most to their team’s chances of winning?

Teammates, coaches, schemes, weather, strength of schedule, expectations, quality of home field advantage and continuity all impact on-field performance. It’s an imperfect science.

In reality, Patrick Mahomes being named the AP NFL MVP is a forgone conclusion. Tough to argue against a future first ballot Hall of Famer who just produced one of the greatest seasons of his already legendary career. 

But given the criteria outlined above, there’s one player I’d rank just a hair above him."The Prince We Were Promised." 

Credit to Nick Wright, a nickname now official on Pro Football Reference.

Raw Statistics

• 387 of 584 (66.3%) for 4,113 passing yards (7.0 YPA), 25 touchdown passes, 8 interceptions and a 95.2 passer rating

• 62 carries for 291 rushing yards (4.7 YPC) and 5 rushing touchdowns

• 4,404 total yards and 30 total touchdowns

At surface level, we see some solid but far from historic numbers. A big step in the right direction after an incredibly rough statistical rookie campaign. But in relation to his peers?

2022 NFL Rankings

• 2nd in passer rating during wins (110.2)
• 4th in sack percentage (4.4%)
• 6th in DVOA (13.1%)
• 6th YAR (946)
• 6th in interception-percentage (1.4%)
• 7th in DYAR (948)
• 7th in VOA (13.0%)
• 7th in pass completions (387)
• 8th in ANY/A (6.66)
• 8th in TD passes (25)
• 8th in passing 1D (206)
• 8th in EYDS (4,446)
• 8th in 4QC (3)
• 9th in passer rating (95.2)
• 9th in passing yards (4,113)
• 10th in NY/A (6.43)
• 10th in completions/game (22.8)

2022 was a down year for passing in the sense that rules and officiating impacted totals and efficiency across the league, very similar to 2017.

League average in passing yards per game was down from 228.3 to 218.5 and touchdown pass percentage was down from 4.5% to 4.2%. For example: Lawrence ranked 8th in touchdown passes with 25. Burrow finished 8th in 2021 with 34 while throwing to Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Essentially, Lawrence’s 4,404 total yards and 30 total touchdowns in 2022 are comparable to about 4,600 total yards and 39 total touchdowns in 2021. 

Those are just raw statistics and rankings. DVOA (per Football Outsiders) sheds further, deeper light on just how impressive Lawrence’s performance was—especially in relation to team support. This season, Lawrence finished 6th in the NFL (13.1%)—higher than both Burrow (10.9%) and Hurts (10.6%) on vastly superior teams.

2022 DVOA Rankings  

• 20th-ranked RB, Travis Etienne (0.8%)
• 31st-ranked WR, Christian Kirk (5.2%)
• 51st-ranked WR, Zay Jones (-3.4%)
• 15th-ranked TE, Evan Engram (7.3%)
• 26th-ranked total defense (6.1%)—2nd worst in the AFC
• 30th-ranked pass defense

Obviously, there’s a pretty big gap between public perception and DVOA here. We’ve all seen the explosive runs from Etienne, the highlight catches from Kirk, the YAC from Engram and the strong windows of dominance from the defense (e.g. second half of Week 18 vs. Tennessee).

I can’t speak for Football Outsiders, but what I’ve seen from scouting every Jaguars snap this season is that Lawrence has been far more consistent and far more dominant than his support has been. Narrative-based reactionary takes would over-simplify Lawrence’s season to hot start, low dip, hot streak, cool finish. There’s so much wrong there. The first dip (Weeks 4-8) generally overlooks a horrifying number of drops, elite sack-percentage games and a near-perfect outing vs. Indianapolis in Week 6.

The second dip (Weeks 16-18) again overlooks elite sack-percentage games, a razor-sharp outing vs. the elite Jets defense in the rain, a record-tying 80.0%+ outing vs. Houston and a near-perfect first half vs. Tennessee in the AFC South Championship game. 

Lawrence struggled in the second half, missing a wide-open touchdown pass and it became a continuous talking point.The defense struggled in the first half, allowing Joshua Dobbs to look like Joe Montana and it was never discussed again. This double standard was present throughout the season too. 

Remember all of the dropped touchdown passes? For those who didn't watch Jags games in full, you probably never heard about those. Under Urban Meyer and Darrell Bevell in 2021, the Jaguars led the NFL in drops—one of the most deflating things that can happen to a quarterback’s development. After making those drops a point of emphasis to improve upon in 2022, they proceeded to lead the NFL in drops for a second consecutive season.

Individually, Zay Jones and Christian Kirk were each tied for the second-most drops in the NFL at eight, per PFF. 

On the ground, Etienne emerged as an imposing big-play threat. There's no denying his ability and impact when he's at his best. But it's worth noting that the Jaguars were 4-0 during his four lowest rushing totals of the season (vs. Ravens, vs. Titans, vs. Colts and @ Titans).

• 11/27/22 vs. Ravens: 2 carries for 3 yards (1.5 YPC), 0 touchdowns
• 1/7/23 vs. Titans: 7 carries for 17 yards (2.4 YPC), 0 touchdowns
• 9/18/22 vs. Colts: 9 carries for 20 yards (2.2 YPC), 0 touchdowns
• 12/11/22 @ Titans: 17 carries for 32 yards (1.9 YPC), 0 touchdowns
• Total: 35 carries for 72 yards (2.1 YPC), 0 touchdowns

Despite lacking balance from the run game to change the way defenses played him, Lawrence was nearly unstoppable.

• 11/27/22 vs. Ravens: 129.8 passer rating, 29 of 37 (78.4%) for 321 yards (8.7 YPA), 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions
• 1/7/23 vs. Titans: 92.2 passer rating, 20 of 32 (62.5%) for 212 yards (6.6 YPA), 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions
• 9/18/22 vs. Colts: 121.5 passer rating, 25 of 30 (83.3%) for 235 yards (7.8 YPA), 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions
• 12/11/22 @ Titans: 121.9 passer rating, 30 of 42 (71.4%) for 368 yards (8.8 YPA), 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions
• Total: 118.4 passer rating, 104 of 141 (73.8%) for 1,136 passing yards (8.1 YPA), 9 touchdowns, 0 interceptions

In a team sport like football, nobody does it alone, including Lawrence. The context above isn't meant to deny the fact that Etienne is an elite talent who has shined brightly in some important games. It isn't meant to ignore how vastly improved the receiving corps has been and how valuable the great plays they've made have been. 

It isn't meant to overlook the reality that the Jaguars would not be in the postseason if it weren't for Josh Allen and an elite second half defensive performance vs. the Titans last weekend. It is impossible to overlook Foyesade Oluokun and his 184 total tackles, 128 solo (both Jaguars franchise records). Impossible to overlook the schematic contributions of Doug Pederson (my pick for NFL Head Coach of the Year). Impossible to overlook how passionate the Duval fan base has been and the impact that 70,050 strong had during the regular season finale.

But the core of this team's success this season has been Lawrence's performance at quarterback. In 15 years covering the NFL, it's one of the most impressive single-seasons in relation to context/playing situation. Lawrence would be electric on teams like the 2022 Bengals, Bills or Eagles but it is hard to believe any player in the NFL today could play as well as Lawrence has on a team the caliber of the Jaguars—especially when he's come close to and at times surpassed what others have done with much greater support.

I'm not one of the 50 voters. Nothing is going to stop Mahomes from winning a well-deserved 2nd MVP. I don't expect to change many people's minds.

But hopefully, I shared a few things you didn't realize before reading this article.
In parting, here are a few more feats Lawrence accomplished in 2022.

• 2x AFC Offensive Player of the Week: Week 3 and Week 14
• NFL single-season record for games with a completion-percentage of 80.0%+, min. 20 attempts: 4 (tied with Brees in 2018 and Cousins in 2019)
• NFL single-season record for games with a 105.0+ passer rating/30+ attempts/70.0%+ completion-percentage/1+ touchdown passes/0 interceptions: 6 (tied with Brees in 2013)
• Jaguars single-season franchise record for completion-percentage (66.3%)
• Jaguars single-season franchise record for pass completions (387)
• Higher season DVOA (13.1%) than Burrow (10.9%) and Hurts (10.6%)
• Higher passer rating in wins (110.2) than Mahomes (108.7), Burrow (108.1), Allen (102.7) and Hurts (102.0)
• 1-6 record when Lawrence’s passer rating is below 85.0
• 102.7 passer rating on 4th downs
• 1st in the AFC in interception-percentage (1.4%)
• Lowest interception-percentage in NFL history for a 1st-2nd year quarterback, min. 500 attempts (1.4%)
• TD-to-INT on the road: 13-3
• Led two 17-point comebacks (11/6/22 vs. Raiders, 12/18/22 vs. Cowboys)
• Became the first and only quarterback in NFL history to lose a game after completing 90.0%+ (min. 20 attempts), 3 total touchdowns and 0 turnovers (10/16/22 @ Colts)
• Joined Peyton Manning as the only 2 quarterbacks in NFL history to win a Division Championship for a team that finished last in winning-percentage the two previous seasons.
• Became the first and only quarterback in NFL history to win a Division Championship for a team that picked No. 1 overall the previous two seasons.
• Played 5.5 games injured, missing practice time every week during that span (Weeks 13-18).
• Finished the season 7-2 over the final 9 games and 5-0 over the final 5 games.