Should the Jaguars Consider Trading for Zach Ertz?
On Tuesday, March 9, Urban Meyer told media in Jacksonville’s pre-free agency press conference that the tight end position group is one “that’s going to have to be rebuilt in some ways.”
One week later, and nearly 36 hours into free agency’s legal tampering period, the truth to that statement hasn’t changed.
Jacksonville has (reportedly) made a slight dip in the water in former Carolina Panther Chris Manhertz, but while Manhertz is a good blocker who could be a solid in-line tight end, he doesn’t exactly fill the void for a team that hasn’t had tight end reach 500 receiving yards since Marcedes Lewis in 2012. (For reference, 18 tight ends reached that mark last season.)
Even with the addition of Manhertz, the position group isn’t exactly experienced:
Premium free agents Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry have signed with the New England Patriots, and Rob Gronkowski is returning to Tampa Bay, leaving the tight end market drier than the sand at The Players.
The remaining options are headlined by young options Gerald Everett and Dan Arnold, neither of whom have earned a dozen career starts, and aging veterans Jared Cook and Kyle Rudolph, each of whom are on the wrong side of 30.
However, another non-rookie option that the Jaguars could pursue is Philadelphia Eagles tight end Zach Ertz, who has reportedly been granted permission by the team to pursue a trade. Plenty of Jacksonville’s offseason moves thus far have involved connections within the building, and an Ertz deal would mean another one as Jacksonville’s senior personnel executive Tom Gamble was Philadelphia’s vice president of player personnel when Ertz was drafted there in 2013.
Ertz is also an aging veteran - the 2021 season will be the 30-year-old’s ninth in the league - but has reached different heights than Cook or Rudolph as a three-time Pro Bowler and Super Bowl champion who set the league record for single-season receptions by a tight end (116) in his 2018 All-Pro campaign.
2019 was Ertz’s latest Pro-Bowl season, and 2020 left a lot to be desired. The Stanford alum set or tied career-lows in games played, offensive snaps, receptions, yards and touchdowns - as well as advanced statistics including yards per route run, passer rating when targeted, first down rate and reception rate on catchable passes - as a midseason high ankle sprain caused him to miss five games (Carson Wentz didn’t help either).
Before being ruled out of Week 7, Ertz averaged 7.5 targets, 4.0 receptions and just 29.7 yards per game, and fellow tight end Dallas Goedert was healthy for just two of those six contests.
Prior to 2020, Ertz was a volume-dominant tight end but was never the efficiency monster that players like George Kittle and Travis Kelce are, due in part to his infamous inability to create yards after the catch. Each year from 2017-2019 (his Pro Bowl seasons), he ranked top-five in receptions, yards, and touchdowns at his position but outside the top-30 in yards after catch per reception.
Ertz has produced between -0.1 and 0.1 yards per catch above expectation each year since Next Gen Stats began tracking the stat in 2016, which suggests very average efficiency in that area.
Ertz lined up in the slot or out wide on 63.1% of offensive snaps last season, 15th-most among qualifying tight ends per PFF. Should the Jaguars trade for him, he’d fill a massive roster hole as an immediate starter and reliable target, even if his route running expertise has declined with age/injuries and his production after the catch remains underwhelming. But Ertz’s 2020 season could also be a sign that he won’t be close to the Pro-Bowl caliber weapon that he was, which would mean yet another whiff at the position for Jacksonville.
So, as the case is with just about any other trade, the decision comes with the price tag. If the Eagles would accept one or multiple Day 3 draft selections, trading for Ertz - who has one year and a base salary of $8.25 million left on his current contract - makes a lot of sense to give assumed first overall pick Trevor Lawrence another capable receiver to begin his NFL career, given both the current state of the free agent market and the fact that rookie tight ends seldom contribute right away.
However, if Philadelphia won’t give up Ertz for anything less than a third-round pick or a capable veteran player (which isn’t exactly a surplus in Jacksonville), then turning back to the free agent market and signing a youngster with potential like Everett or a proven old-timer like Cook without having to give up additional resources - or even looking into the trade rumors that have circled Evan Engram and David Njoku for the past year or so - makes far more sense.
Buying low on a former Pro-Bowler at a position in need of any upgrade is a good strategy- that’s exactly what the Patriots recently did by trading a fifth-round pick for left tackle Trent Brown and a seventh-rounder. But if the Eagles are holding firm and won’t ship off Ertz just for the sake of a swift breakup and some cap relief, the Jaguars should continue its offseason approach of avoiding overpayments and seek better value elsewhere.
