2020 Set to Be Critical Season for Jaguars' 2017 Draft Class
It has long been a commonly held thought that if a front office executive wants to build a long-term winner, the best strategy is to build through the draft.
Every spring the same phrase is heard over and over, and for good reason. The NFL Draft serves as the lifeblood for all 32 clubs, and the roots of every gridiron dynasty can largely be traced back to the team's draft history.
No team knows this better than the Jacksonville Jaguars, though for not exactly positive reasons. After starting the franchise's history off with several strong draft classes, the Jaguars have run into serious issues when it comes to drafting over the last 15 years or so.
Derrick Harvey, Blaine Gabbert, Justin Blackmon, Luke Joeckel are the names that highlight the top of the list of Jaguars draft busts in recent years, but the problem has typically gone much deeper than that. One of the league's worst teams in terms of win-loss records over the past decade, the Jaguars struggled in not only the first round but when it came to putting together strong classes from top to bottom.
One way to judge how successful a team's draft history has been is to look at how many draft picks earned second contracts with the teams. And in recent years, this has been an area the Jaguars have struggled in.
For context, the Jaguars drafted 32 players from 2013 through 2016. The number of players who signed extensions or second contracts? Just six: Blake Bortles, Marqise Lee, Brandon Linder, Telvin Smith, A.J. Cann and Myles Jack.
Ben Koyack has signed multiple contracts with the Jaguars, but his situation doesn't apply here. Yannick Ngakoue has been franchise tagged, so he doesn't count as a player the team agreed to a second deal with either.
The next draft class that is bound to be eligible to stake their claims to Jacksonville's football future and potentially earn new contracts is the 2017 draft class. The first group of former executive vice president of football operations Tom Coughlin's new additions to Jacksonville, the 2017 class was made up of seven players who helped push the Jaguars to a 10-6 regular season record and an AFC Championship appearance.
But entering 2020, only four of the seven draft picks remain. Fifth-round linebacker Blair Brown appeared in 28 games over two seasons before being waived, while seventh-round cornerback Jalen Myrick appeared in just five games as a Jaguar and seventh-round fullback Marquez Williams never appeared in a game for the team.
This leaves Jacksonville's first four draft picks from 2017 as the only remaining members of the once-crucial class. And for each of those four players, the stage is set in 2020 for true make-or-break seasons.
RB Leonard Fournette
The headliner of the Jaguars' 2017 class, Leonard Fournette was a controversial pick for Jacksonville even back then due to the team selecting a running back so highly when they didn't have a serviceable quarterback on the roster. But the Jaguars were committed to changing their team philosophy toward a tough, ground-and-pound style of team under Coughlin and head coach Doug Marrone, and taking the bruising LSU running back was the most important step toward accomplishing that goal.
Fournette was relatively successful, albeit inefficient, as a rookie as he recorded 1,040 rushing yards (3.9 yards per carry average) and nine rushing scores, along with 36 receptions for 302 yards and one touchdown. Fast forward to the playoffs where Fournette helped lift the Jaguars to a 45-42 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Divisional Round thanks to 25 carries for 109 yards and three rushing scores.
2018 was, of course, much more of a downward spiral for Fournette and the Jaguars in general. Fournette played in only eight games due to injuries and a suspension for an on-field fight with Shaq Lawson, leading the former top pick to produce only 439 yards on 133 carries (3.3 average) and five touchdowns.
Last year, Fournette rebounded from the turbulent 2018 season and had arguably the best year of his career from an efficiency standpoint. After a sophomore season that saw Fournette have massive issues on and off the field, he ended up posting career-highs in rushing yards (1,152), yards per carry average (4.3), receptions (76), and receiving yards (522 yards).
This didn't stop Fournette from reportedly having his name floated in trade talks by the Jaguars before the draft. The Jaguars then declined to pick up Fournette's fifth-year option, paving the way for him to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2020 season and creating a scenario in which he is now playing for his long-term future in Jacksonville.
Fournette has battled through adversity at multiple times in his Jaguars tenure up tot his point, and for the most part he has been able to rise above it and keep his stranglehold on the team's running back position. 2020 could be his final opportunity to prove to the Jaguars he is worth being a major fixture of the franchise, however, making the next 16 games beyond critical for the former No. 4 overall pick.
LT Cam Robinson
Another key member of Jacksonville's 2017 roster, the Jaguars traded up in the second round to select Alabama offensive tackle Cam Robinson with the No. 34 overall pick in the second round. While Fournette was meant to set the tone of the franchise as its lead back, Robinson was selected to represent the new identity the Jaguars were looking for in offensive linemen.
In three seasons, Robinson has started 32 games at left tackle, including all three postseason games in 2017. Robinson was a 15-game starter as a rookie in 2017 before sustaining a season-ending ACL injury in Week 3 of the 2018 season. Robinson returned from his injury in Week 3 of 2019 and proceeded to start the next 14 games at left tackle, helping boost Jacksonville's running game once he was back in the lineup but finding issues with his pass protection.
"Left tackle Cam Robinson has never lived up to his perceived upside, ranking below average in every key metric in his two-plus seasons of NFL action. Robinson’s 54.8 overall grade ranked 75th out of 89 offensive tackles last season, and even though he missed two games, he still allowed 45 total pressures — tied for the sixth-most in the league," PFF wrote earlier this offseason.
Now, the mauling and veteran offensive tackle will have to compete with third-year offensive lineman Will Richardson to win Jacksonville's starting left tackle job. If Robinson's short-term starting status with the Jaguars is as much of a question as it is today, it is reasonable to think his long-term status is on shaky ground as well.
Robinson could certainly earn a second contract with a strong 2020 season. He is still just 24-years-old and he has flashed the physical dominance Jacksonville drafted him to display, but they have been merely flashes. While Fournette's future with the Jaguars past 2020 isn't clear, Robinson's is just as murky and dependent on a strong season this fall.
DL Dawuane Smoot
Maybe the player on this list who has the most positive upward trajectory moving into next season, Dawuane Smoot has made it clear via social media that he is committed to attacking 2020 with ferocity since it is a contract year. And to what would have been to the surprise of many following Smoot's second season in 2018, the veteran defensive linemen may have the best chance to stick with the Jaguars out of all of the 2017 draft picks after a productive 2019 season.
Smoot, who the Jaguars selected with the No. 68 overall pick in 2017, struggled to make much of an impact in the first two years of his career. Originally drafted to back-up Campbell at the big end spot in Jacksonville's 4-3 defense, Smoot didn't flash much pass-rush ability on the edge and went without recording any sacks in the first two years of his career.
But beginning in preseason and training camp last season, Smoot began to flip the script on his career. Smoot showed enough development in training camp to have Marrone give him a glowing endorsement before the 2019 season began.
"He’s really changed. I will tell you that he’s come a long way," Marrone said. "I think he has really come a long way. I think he’s playing well, I think we’re going to get some really good snaps out of him. I think we’re going to get productivity."
Smoot would go on to prove Marrone right, recording six sacks (fourth on the team) along with a career-high in tackles for loss with six, and a career-high in quarterback hits with seven.
It is fair to wonder what Smoot's role will be in 2020 considering how crowded Jacksonville's defensive line room is (and considering Smoot may not have a true position at defensive end or defensive tackle), but he could be part of the team's solution to Calais Campbell's departure. If Smoot can replicate his 2019 production in an expanded role in 2020, he could play himself into a new contract with the team.
WR Dede Westbrook
Jacksonville's resident slot receiver, Dede Westbrook has been one of the mainstays of the Jaguars' offense since he first found the field in 2017. Selected with the No. 110 pick (fourth-round) in the 2017 draft, Westbrook is the most explosive skill player Jacksonville acquired that year, but he now also faces an uncertain future in Jacksonville.
The Jaguars presently have a crowded wide receiver room around Westbrook with recent second-round selections DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault, along with veteran wideouts Chris Conley and Keelan Cole. Westbrook is solidified as Jacksonville's slot, but he does need to prove he can take his game to the next level if he doesn't want to be seen as replaceable following 2020.
In 38 career games, Westbrook has caught 59 passes for 1,716 yards and nine touchdowns. His best season came in 2018 when he led the Jaguars in receiving with 66 receptions for 717 yards and five touchdowns, but his production took a step back in 2019 with 66 receptions for 660 yards and three touchdowns.
Westbrook has been far from a draft bust considering his fourth-round status, but he also hasn't produced to a level to suggest that he isn't an irreplaceable slot receiver. For him to continue to be a part of the Jaguars' plans following 2020, he will have to prove he can rise above Jacksonville's crowded receiver room and finally produce like a top-flight slot receiver.