4 Jaguars to Watch in Week 1 vs. the Colts
Each week this season, I’ll be highlighting a few specific Jacksonville players that I’ll be keeping my eye on based on how they’ve played so far and how I expect them to play in the future. Here is who I’ll be watching for in Week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts.
QB Gardner Minshew II
Earlier this offseason, I wrote, “it’s clear that Minshew isn’t yet close to franchise-quarterback material. He does have several positive traits (first-read throws, deep passing, play-action passing, plus-athleticism) that could be maximized in the right system with the right coach. But Minshew’s negative traits (conservative passing, inaccuracy, lacking pocket awareness) are likely of keeping him from ever becoming more than a mid-tier starter.”
In hindsight, I was probably a bit too harsh on the sixth-round rookie quarterback. I’m still not fully convinced that Minshew is the long-term solution in Jacksonville, but I’m excited to see what he does in his sophomore season with a full offseason as the undisputed starter.
I’m specifically eager to watch Minshew’s pocket presence and aggressiveness. Minshew often failed to throw on-time, as he ranked 23rd in time in pocket (2.4 seconds, per Pro Football Reference) but sixth in time to throw (2.9 seconds, per PFF). That difference was the second-largest in the league, and Minshew also finished with the second-highest rate of scramble drills on his dropbacks.
Minshew ranked third in checkdown rate and Leonard Fournette led the league in checkdown receptions last year, per PFF. He also happened to rank top-3 in passer rating, PFF grade and ESPN’s QBR on throws 20-plus yards downfield, but he attempted such throws at just the 26th-highest rate in the league.
If Minshew stays poised in the pocket and throws downfield with confidence, that means he took a massive step this offseason. But if he continues to leave the pocket early and leave plays left on the field by opting for early checkdowns against Indianapolis’ zone-heavy defense, the 2020 season will likely feel a lot like 2019 all over again.
RB Chris Thompson
Undrafted rookie James Robinson is getting the most buzz among Jaguars running backs this week after he was listed as the starter on the team’s first unofficial depth chart. I’m certainly excited to watch Robinson, who ranks first in Illinois high school history and second in Illinois State history in career rushing yards, but I’m more interested in watching Chris Thompson.
Thompson was signed as a free agent this offseason, following new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden from Washington. In the past five seasons, Thompson ranks 11th in targets, receptions and receiving yards among all running backs. In the first five weeks of 2019 (before Gruden’s firing), Thomson ranked top-five in those same categories.
Considering Thompson’s familiarity with Gruden, Minshew’s checkdown habits and the lack of NFL experience from the rest of the Jaguars backfield, I expect Thompson be Jacksonville’s most productive running back this season. Fournette led the team in receptions last season, and it should be refreshing to see Thompson fielding passes in his spot.
The Colts allowed the most receptions to running backs in the league last season. I’m looking forward to seeing how many snaps Thompson earns and what he’ll be able to do with those snaps.
LT Cam Robinson
2017 second round pick Cam Robinson enters his contract season as Jacksonville’s starting left tackle for the fourth consecutive year. After tearing his ACL in the second game of 2018, Robinson had a down year in 2019 and didn’t appear fully healthy. He ranked 75th among 88 eligible tackles in PFF grade and ranked bottom-10 at the position in sacks allowed, pressures allowed and penalties despite missing two games. Minshew tended to invite pressure by prematurely leaving the pocket last season, but Robinson’s play certainly didn’t help.
Robinson shouldn’t necessarily have his hands full in Week 1, as DeForest Buckner (interior defensive lineman) and Justin Houston (lines up on right edge) are likely to be lined up elsewhere for much of the game. Now a full season removed from his ACL injury, it’s vital that Robinson has a solid start and strong season overall, or else Jacksonville will likely be looking for a replacement in the 2021 Draft.
DT Taven Bryan
Third-year defensive tackle Taven Bryan had a quietly productive sophomore season, as his snaps increased from 301 to 481 and his total pressures more than doubled from 12 to 25 (per PFF).
Bryan led the team in plays made per defensive snap with a 7.1% playmaking rate last season, meaning he was very explosive in his limited snaps. He’ll now see one of the highest snap rates on the defensive line in the absence of Calais Campbell and Marcell Dareus this season. The hope is that Bryan is able to keep up the high rate of playmaking as the team’s starting defensive tackle.
Bryan is by no means a bust, but he also hasn’t made the impact that was expected of him when he was selected 29th overall by Jacksonville following its remarkable 2017 season. He’ll have a difficult matchup in Week 1 against the Colts' elite offensive line, but Jacksonville badly needs him to have a breakout year or else it will be in danger of having a liable interior defense for the second straight season.
