Jaguar Report

4 Jaguars to Watch in Week 3 vs. the Dolphins

Which Jaguars deserve the most focus heading into Week 3's primetime game against Miami?

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Each week this season, I’ll be highlighting a few specific Jacksonville players that I’ll be keeping my eye on based on how they’ve played so far and how I expect them to play in the future.

With the Jaguars (1-1) needing a big win on Thursday Night Football, there are several players worth tracking over the course of the game and the week. Here is who I’ll be watching for in Week 3 against the Miami Dolphins.

RB James Robinson

Undrafted rookie James Robinson is unquestionably Jacksonville’s primary running back after his performance through the first two games of the 2020 season. He currently ranks 15th in carries (32) and eighth in rushing yards (164) among all running backs, and he ranks top-14 in yards per carry, Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expected per attempt and Football Outsiders’ rushing DVOA.

Those rankings certainly aren’t elite, but even above-average efficiency from a running back has been a rare sighting in Jacksonville. For reference, no Jaguars running back has ranked top-14 in rushing DVOA since Maurice Jones-Drew ranked eighth in 2010.

Robinson’s consistency is arguably the best part of his game; just two of his 32 rushes this season have been for a loss.

Robinson’s 56% success rate ranks 12th among 38 running backs with 10-plus carries this year, per Sharp Football Stats. His steadiness has especially been refreshing due to the lack of consistency from former starter Leonard Fournette, who had dreadful efficiency. Fournette’s success rate was sub-50% in each year of his career in Jacksonville.

Robinson should continue finding success against the Miami Dolphins on Thursday, which has allowed the seventh-most carries and fourth-most rushing yards to opposing teams so far this season, ranking 31st in rush defense DVOA.

RG A.J. Cann (and the rest of the offensive line)

James Robinson has played very well so far, and that is in large part due to the offensive line in front of him. Jacksonville ranks top-8 in Pro Football Focus’ run blocking grade and ESPN’s run block win rate metric (it also ranks top-4 in pass blocking grade and pass block win rate).

According to Football Outsiders, Jaguars running backs have been stuffed on just 12% of runs this season (sixth-best in league) compared to 20% of 2019 runs (23rd). Jacksonville also jumped from ranking 27th to 10th in adjusted line yards, the average yards created by the offensive line.

The entire offensive line has been playing very well, as Jawaan Taylor is the only starter who ranks outside the top-20 in PFF grade at his position (but his 71.5 grade is still respectable and ranks 31st among all tackles).

The most pleasant surprise among the group is right guard A.J. Cann, who has earned a 73.2 grade so far this season (16th among all guards) after posting sub-63.0 grades in each of the past seasons. Robinson’s longest rush of his young career came behind a stellar play by Cann.

Cann and the rest of the offensive line should be able to continue their early-season success this week against the Dolphins, which ranks bottom-7 in run stop win rate, pass rush win rate, rushing yards allowed, and passing yards allowed so far this season. Jacksonville’s offense appears ready to roll on Thursday night considering the mismatch in the trenches.

DE Josh Allen

After ranking top-10 in PFF pass rush grade and ESPN pass rush win rate a year ago, Jacksonville currently ranks bottom-10 in each of those metrics this season. The losses of Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue are certainly big reasons why, but it’s still disappointing the defense’s decline in pass rush production considering the young talent it still has rostered on the defensive line.

The leader of that group, second-year edge rusher Josh Allen, has especially underwhelmed to begin the season. After finishing 14th among all players in sacks in his 2019 rookie campaign with 10.5, Allen has recorded zero sacks through the first two games of 2020.

Fortunately, two factors suggest that Allen should find more success in the near future. The first is his three quarterback hits, which is tied for sixth in the league, indicating that Allen is still winning reps but just barely not fast enough. The other is that Allen has faced two solid offensive lines so far in the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans, both of which rank in the top half of the league in pass block win rate and run block win rate, but the Dolphins rank dead last in both metrics.

Miami quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been getting rid of the ball quickly, as his 2.34 average seconds to throw ranks second-fastest in the league (per Next Gen Stats). It’ll be vital for Allen and the rest of the defensive line to start turning quarterback hits into sacks in Week 3 and for the remainder of the season as well.

K Josh Lambo

Josh Lambo made a couple of critical mistakes in Jacksonville’s Week 2 loss to the Titans. After botching a squib quick at the end of the first half that led to a Tennessee field goal as time expired, Lambo missed an extra point for the first time since last October.

It’s fair to be disappointed in Lambo, especially considering those four lost points would have put the Jaguars ahead 34-33. But Lambo was also extremely reliable before last Sunday, as he led the league in field goal percentage in 2019 (he made 33 of 34 field goal attempts despite playing through a groin injury) and connected on all five of his kicking attempts in Week 1.

The Jaguars ranked sixth in special teams DVOA last season, compared to just 24th in offense and 29th in defense.

Lambo likely missed last week’s extra point in large part due to a loss of confidence from the squib kick. It’ll be imperative for him to bounce back in Week 3 and reprove his reliability to Jacksonville. 

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