4 Observations on the Jaguars' Decision to Not Exercise Leonard Fournette's Option

What does the Jaguars' decision to not exercise Leonard Fournette's option mean for the future?

With the deadline to exercise or decline fifth-year options for the 32 players selected in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft quickly approaching, the Jacksonville Jaguars made their own move on Friday by declining to exercise Leonard Fournette's option.

Fournette will now enter a contract year and is scheduled to become a free agent in 2021, which could mean the end of his Jaguars tenure is near. But even with that context, there is still a chance for Fournette to leave his mark on Jacksonville in 2020. 

What does the decision to not exercise Fournette's option mean for the Jaguars' future, and their past? We examine the decision and the circumstances around it to find the answer.

1) Jaguars' track record of fifth-year options remains in the negative

With the Jaguars declining Fournette's fifth-year option, it brings into light just how poor of a track record the Jaguars have had in terms of keeping first-round picks around for the long-haul. While Fournette could always have a monster season in 2020 and earn a second contract, it certainly appears it is more likely that next season will be his final one in Jacksonville, which puts him in some crowded company. 

Since the fifth-year option first became a reality for NFL first-rounders in 2011, the Jaguars have selected seven players who became eligible to have their options exercised. Out of those seven, only two options have been exercised. The Jaguars declined options on Blaine Gabbert, Luke Joeckel, Dante Fowler, and Fournette, while Justin Blackmon was ineligible for a fifth-year option. 

The two players the Jaguars exercised options on? Cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who was traded during his fourth season, and quarterback Blake Bortles, who was extended after his fourth season. Because of these two moves, the Jaguars have never had a first-round pick play on his option year. The next Jaguars player eligible for the option is defensive tackle Taven Bryan, and it seems like a longshot he'd have his exercised unless he has a great 2020 season.

2) This was the least surprising move of the Jaguars' eventful offseason

The Jaguars have made a few surprising moves his offseason, such as the trade of Calais Campbell and drafting C.J. Henderson at No. 9 overall, but deciding not to pick up Fournette's option was a move that has been years in the making and should have come as a surprise to nobody. 

Fournette is a solid player who is far from a "draft bust", but it has been made clear through his three years in the NFL that he isn't in the upper echelon of running backs. Picking up Fournette's option would've meant him likely playing for $8,483,000 in 2021, which would currently rank as the fifth-highest single year total at the position in the NFL. 

With the direction the Jaguars are moving in as a franchise, and with Fournette's good but not great play over the years, it wouldn't have made much sense for the Jaguars to make him one of the league's highest-paid backs in any scenario. While this is a move that speaks volumes about the Jaguars' lack of draft success, it was one that should have been seen coming.

3) Fournette will still be given the chance to carry the load for the rushing attack in 2020

While the Jaguars were reportedly attempting to trade Fournette in the days leading up to last week's draft, they were clearly unable to find any takers. With how saturated the running back market has become in recent weeks, with most running back-needy teams filling their holes via the draft, there is little to zero chance the Jaguars will be able to deal Fournette during his contract season unless a team is desperate for a running back around the trade deadline. 

Because of this, expect Fournette to once again be one of the centerpieces to Jacksonville's offense in 2020. It would be a surprise to see him touch the ball 341 times in 2020 like he did in 2019, in part because of a change in offensive philosophy under Jay Gruden and in part due to the addition and development of other playmakers, but he should still be a key figure in the gameplans.

While Ryquell Armstead and Devine Ozigbo are both explosive and talented players, neither is the pass-protector Fournette is, and neither has had a chance to flash the same big-play ability of Fournette. He has his flaws, but he is still the best running back on the roster, and should once again be trusted to lead the rushing attack.

"I look at Leonard coming in here as a really motivated player"#Jaguars HC Doug Marrone on his RB @_fournette

Audio #DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/a2zWarThAS

— SiriusXM NFL Radio (@SiriusXMNFL) May 1, 2020

4) Jacksonville's recent history of running back evaluations paints a grim picture

While Fournette is obviously nowhere near the bottom tier of starting running backs, he has never been able to live up to his billing as the No. 4 overall pick. In three years, he has played 36 regular season games, has scored fewer than 20 touchdowns, and has rushed for 2,631 yards (4.0 yards per carry average). 

But Fournette's inability to join the upper echelon of running backs isn't solely a problem that is limited to himself only. Since general manager Dave Caldwell joined the team in 2013, the Jaguars have made four major additions at the position, and none have quite worked out like the Jaguars intended.

• March 2014: Jaguars sign free agent running back Toby Gerhart to a three-year, $10.5 million contract. He plays for the team for just two seasons, recording 121 carries for 370 yards and two touchdowns (3.1 average). He never recorded more than 326 yards rushing in a season. 
• May 2015: Jaguars draft Alabama running back T.J. Yeldon with the No. 36 overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, making him the third running back selected that year. In four seasons with the Jaguars, Yeldon rushed 465 times for 1,872 yards and just six touchdowns. He never rushed for more than 740 rushing yards or scored more than two rushing touchdowns in a season.
• March 2016: Jaguars sign free agent running back Chris Ivory to a five-year, $32 million contract a year after drafting Yeldon. Ivory would go on to play only two seasons with the Jaguars, appearing in 25 games and rushing 229 times for 821 yards (3.6 yards per carry) and four touchdowns. 
• April 2017: Jacksonville drafts Fournette No. 4 overall, passing on quarterbacks Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes, safety Jamal Adams, and running back Christian McCaffrey.

The Jaguars are 0-for-4 on running back investments in recent years. The hope for them is they will have finally learned from their mistakes once it comes time to find a new starting rusher.