An In-Depth Review of the Jaguars' 2020 Regular Season Schedule

What do the numbers say about the Jaguars and how their 2020 slate stacks up to the rest of the league?

The Jacksonville Jaguars' official schedule for the 2020 season was recently announced, and the team now knows how their schedule will roll out, who they will play first, and who they will play off of their bye. 

Jacksonville is set to play in 14 games in the 1 p.m. time slot, tied for most in the league, with one prime-time game scheduled on Thursday Night Football. More specifics about the full schedule can be found here.  The following includes several key factors regarding Jacksonville’s schedule and opponents, and what it means for the team moving forward. 

One of the most popular schedule metrics is strength of schedule. When considering future opponents, it’s important to NOT look at team records from the previous season.

Teams should not be judged on the record the previous year for two main reasons. The first is that team record isn’t a great metric to begin with. There are several factors like turnover margin, injury luck and close game record that have large impacts on games but tend to regress to the mean from season to season. Efficiency rankings are typically a better representation of team performance than a record.

Secondly, teams should not be judged on their previous year's record because of personnel turnover. For example, most would tend to agree that the Arizona Cardinals roster significantly improved this offseason, and the New England Patriots roster significantly worsened. Additionally, Ben Roethlisberger’s return from injury should benefit the Pittsburgh Steelers, as will the hiring of Kevin Stefanski by the Cleveland Browns.

Using projected win totals is likely the best way to judge strength of schedule, as Vegas sportsbooks consider both regression factors (e.g. the Green Bay Packers pre-draft win total was 9.5 after winning 13 games last season) and personnel changes (e.g. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers current win total is 9.5 after winning 7 games last season).

When factoring this in, Jacksonville has the 11th-easiest projected schedule in terms of opponents’ combined 2019 record, but the 20th-easiest projected schedule in terms of Vegas forecasted 2020 win totals per Sharp Football Stats.

Via Sharp Football Stats

A few notes:

• Jacksonville’s toughest projected opponent is the Baltimore Ravens in Week 15 and its easiest projected opponent is the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4.
• It will face 11 teams with a projected record of .500 or better, which is tied for third-most in the league.
• The Jaguars have the easiest schedule in the NFL in the span of its first eight games (Weeks 1-9) but the second-toughest schedule in the span of its last eight games (Weeks 10-17).  

Other factors to consider in terms of scheduling beyond opponent strength include miles traveled, rest differential and back to back road games. Below is a brief look at where Jacksonville ranks among AFC teams, per ESPN Analytics.

How each AFC team's schedule is tough or easy. #nflschedulerelease #nflschedule #ggplot2 #rstats #dataviz pic.twitter.com/WICk8vp9bS

— Brian Macdonald (@bmacGTPM) May 8, 2020

Per ESPN’s Brian Burke, the Jaguars lead the league in ‘net travel miles’ (the difference between team miles traveled and opponent travel miles traveled) by over 1,000 miles. Jacksonville might have ranked first by an even larger margin if it were still scheduled to play two home games in London.

Most "net travel miles" for 2020 pic.twitter.com/gOV6eqozd0

— Brian Burke (@bburkeESPN) May 8, 2020

Jacksonville has -5 net rest days against its opponents, which is the eighth-least in the league. Its sole break in terms of scheduling is that it is tied for the least amount of back to back road games with one such trip.

Jacksonville appears to have gotten the short end of the stick in terms of scheduling this season compared to its AFC South rivals. Among the Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans, the Jaguars rank third in strength of schedule per Vegas win totals, fourth in net travel miles, fourth in rest differential, and first in back to back road games. The Colts and Titans rank first and second, respectively, in strength of schedule and the Texans rank directly behind the Jaguars at 21st overall.

Additionally, Jacksonville will face two teams coming off a bye this season, tied for most in the league with seven other teams. Tennessee is one of nine teams to face zero opponents coming off a bye, and Indianapolis and Houston will each face one team coming off a bye.

It’s important that all of this information is taken with a grain of salt. Team performance can change drastically from year to year and the future is unpredictable. But with that being said, the Jaguars weren’t helped out by the NFL’s scheduling this season, which could make picking at the top of the 2021 draft an even likelier scenario.