Analytics Analyst Weighs In on Teams That Acquired Jaguars Castaways

The Denver Broncos and Houston Texans received good reviews for decisions to acquire Evan Engram, Christian Kirk.

Dec 8, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram (17) makes a catch Tennessee Titans during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Three years ago, Jacksonville’s free-agent investment in wide receiver Christian Kirk and Evan Engram paid impressive early dividends. Unfortunately, their last two years with the Jaguars weren’t as good as the first.

Still, ESPN.com analytics writer Seth Walder this week handed out positive grades for the decision to acquire each player.

The Texans, who in order to acquire Kirk gave James Gladstone the seventh-round choice once owned by the Rams, also acquired the wide receiver’s massive contract. And Walder gave Houston an A-minus for the trade.

“Kirk was once the poster child for (what we thought was) NFL free agency overpay,” Walder wrote this week. Fast-forward a few years to Tutu Atwell landing a one-year, $10 million deal with the Rams, and suddenly Kirk's scheduled $16.5 million in cash -- which was apparently too rich for the Jaguars since they were preparing to release him -- looks like kind of a bargain?”

Meanwhile, after Jacksonville released Engram in a salary-cap move ahead of the new league year, Denver signed the veteran tight end to a two-year, $23 million deal with $16.5 million guaranteed. Walder liked that move, too, giving it a B.

“Though Engram's raw totals last season weren't impressive,” Walder wrote, “he maintained a decent 1.6 yards per route run off an exceptional 28-percent target rate. In 2023, he recorded 1.7 yards per route run and a 26-percent target rate.

“The route-running numbers don't jump off the page, but consider that 1.6 also equaled Joshua Palmer's yards per route run as a wide receiver, and he received a deal of $12 million per year from Buffalo.”

Gladstone said he had a lot of respect for Kirk and Engram but needed to make the moves in order to create more roster flexibility. While the Jaguars will still need to carry a dead-cap charge of $13.652 million for Kirk and $7.5 million for Engram, moving on allowed Jacksonville to reshape its offensive line to more of a downhill attack built on establishing the run.

“So, that was a big part in that,” Gladstone said Thursday. “But we do feel like we're in a better position today than we were a couple of weeks ago to make it so that when we enter each decision at each pick point in April, we can continue to level up where we are from a personnel perspective.”

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