Before a Shot at Burrow, Herbert, Allen, or Mahomes, the Jaguars Must Get Past Dobbs

If the Jaguars want to play the AFC's elite quarterbacks in a miraculous postseason run later this month, it will take them getting past a quarterback with just one career start.

The Jacksonville Jaguars should know better than any other team. If you look too far ahead in the NFL, you won't be playing important games down the stretch. 

As such, don't expect for the Jaguars to look past Tennessee Titans quarterback Josh Dobbs this Saturday. 

If the Jaguars want a chance to do battle with the class of the AFC in Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, or Joe Burrow in the coming weeks, they will first have to prove themselves against Dobbs in his second-career start. 

“Josh did some nice things in that last game, and I would anticipate that they would lean toward him being the starter in this game. So that’s how you prepare, but obviously you have to be ready for both guys," Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said on Monday. 

"Again, you’re going to have a rested Derrick Henry, too. We know what he did in the first half of our game the last time here about four weeks ago. Great challenge for our defense, great challenge for our football team and looking forward to it.”

Dobbs, who spent a season with the Jaguars in 2019, made his first career start in six NFL seasons in Week 16. After numerous below-average passing performances from Malik Willis and a season-ending injury to Ryan Tannehill, Dobbs was made the starting quarterback for the Titans just eight days after being signed off the Detroit Lions' practice squad.

Dobbs didn't exactly set the world on fire in his first start, as expected. Going against a tough Dallas Cowboys defense and without Derrick Henry, Dobbs was 20-of-39 passing (51.28%) for 232 yards (5.95 yards per attempt) with one touchdown, one interception and two fumbles (one lost). 

Among all 32 starters in Week 17, Dobbs was No. 24 in EPA/Play and No. 28 in CPOE, showing he is exactly what he always has been: a journeyman who is better suited as a backup than as a true starter.

But that is the test the Jaguars must pass on Sunday. To give themselves a chance to play the NFL's best, they will have to prove they won't trip over their own feet against a quarterback who, on paper, should not be good enough to beat them at home. 

Can the Jaguars pass this test? They have lost to other below-average quarterbacks this year such as Davis Mills and Matt Ryan, after all. Dobbs is no different, and the Jaguars can't assume they will easily get past him because they haven't easily gotten by many quarterbacks all season long. 

This has changed in recent weeks, with the Jaguars' defense allowing just six points and 177 passing yards per game. In that span, they rank No. 2 in EPA/Play allowed, No. 1 in success rate, No. 3 in Dropback EPA/Play allowed, No. 2 in Dropback success rate, No. 3 in Rushing EPA/Play allowed, and No. 4 in Rushing success rate.

Yes, the Jaguars did all of this against two of the NFL's worst quarterbacks in Mills and Zach Wilson and against two offenses that have struggled all year. But Dobbs isn't exactly far removed from Mills and Wilson; nothing has proven otherwise. 

The Jaguars shouldn't underestimate Dobbs, but they shouldn't overestimate, either. The real challenge is to not beat themselv vs. Dobbs, whereas the challenge in upcoming weeks will be to not let the opposing quarterback beat them.

"They’ve got a couple of different pieces on defense. A couple guys went on IR, but for the most part, they’re still the Tennessee Titans. They do what they do," Pederson said. 

"They do it well on defense, do the same thing on offense. We know it’s going to run through the running back, then ultimately the play action pass and things of that nature. We’re Week 18, so there’s not a lot of secrets with both teams. They kind of know us, we know them. It’s just going to be a really good football game.”