Chris Simms Ranks Trevor Lawrence 28th Among NFL QBs Ahead of 2021

Is Lawrence better than grading out as one of the NFL's bottom starting quarterbacks as a rookie? One analyst doesn't think so.

Rookie quarterbacks rarely enter the NFL with sky-high expectations surrounding them before they take a professional snap, even No. 1 overall picks. 

With this in mind, there have been very few quarterback prospects and top picks like Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The football prodigy has been tabbed as the next great quarterback prospect since before he was a high school senior, and he didn't disappoint at the college stage as he led Clemson to 29 consecutive victories to start his career and a 34-2 (.944) record as a starter

Despite Lawrence being signaled by many to be the best quarterback prospect of the last decade, there are still some prepared to present a bit of a reality check in terms of expectations. 

Among those lower on Lawrence heading into 2021 than many is current analyst and former NFL quarterback Chris Simms, who releases a list of his top quarterbacks entering each NFL season. In his recently finalized top-40, Simms has Lawrence ranked as the 28th best quarterback entering the 2021 season. 

The Top 40 QB is done. Putting Josh Allen over Aaron Rodgers was the hardest call of the whole list for me. I talk through the Top 4 here:https://t.co/oyfwxglhiL

Also taking questions for tomorrow's #AskMeAnything pod with @PaulWBurmeister pic.twitter.com/8acGerlxI8

— Chris Simms (@CSimmsQB) June 24, 2021

Simms was one of few media analysts who had BYU's Zach Wilson ranked ahead of Lawrence entering the 2021 NFL Draft. This is once again reflected on his list this year, with Wilson finishing one spot ahead of Lawrence at No. 27. 

There were three other rookie first-round quarterbacks drafted falling behind the two: New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (No. 30), San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance (No. 38) and Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields (No. 39). 

Third-round Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kellen Mond was ranked No. 37, ahead of Lance and Fields. Lawrence was ranked above the No. 5 overall pick from 2020 in Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who Simms ranked No. 34. 

"What do you want me to say about Trevor Lawrence? I mean, I am a huge fan. I know people think I am a hater because I put Zach Wilson in front of him, but man, Trevor Lawrence, come on. What can't he do on a football field?" Simms said on 'Chris Simms Unbuttoned' earlier this month. 

"I think he brings everything to the table as far as what you want from a starting quarterback in the NFL -- from every facet. I really do. And I think that is the exciting thing about him. Yes, I know I think Zach Wilson had a little more talent and I am more excited about that, but man I am still excited about Trevor Lawrence. You know, he is just -- there is nothing not to like about his game.

The ranking of Wilson above Lawrence is noteworthy considering they were the top two picks in this year's draft and Lawrence has been widely considered the better prospect of the two. Aside from that, other questions are raised when it comes to Simms' ranking. 

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is entering his third season and has a host of new weapons surrounding him in Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney, but he has struggled to be a consistent performer both at the college level (in the same conference Lawrence excelled in) and in the NFL, throwing 22 interceptions and fumbling 29 times in the last two seasons. 

Meanwhile, New Orlean Saints quarterback Taysom Hill struggled as a quarterback when thrust into a starting role last season. The conventional wisdom is he will be the Saints' backup behind Jameis Winston, calling into question if he belongs in the top-40 in general as a pure quarterback.

To Simms' credit, Lawrence is a rookie quarterback who should not be expected to be among the top passers in the league in his first year. While ranking Jones, Hill, and a few other passers in front of him is curious to an extent, it is also sensible to set reasonable expectations. Simms is also being consistent, as he ranked 2020 No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow No. 26 in 2020. 

Lawrence was 34-2 as a starter at Clemson, having only lost in the College Football Playoffs (as a sophomore, to LSU in the Championship and as a junior to Ohio State in the semifinals). As a freshman, Lawrence defeated the Alabama Crimson Tide for the National Championship. In his career, Lawrence completed 66% of his passes for 10,098 yards (8.9 yards per attempt, 9.8 adjusted yards per attempt) for 90 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. He also rushed for 943 yards and 18 touchdowns.