EdjSports: Jaguars HC Doug Marrone Has Worst Coaching Decision of Week 13

EdjSports, a sports analytics company, ranks the best and worst head coaching decisions in the NFL each week. So far, Doug Marrone owns the worst call of Week 13 in their eyes.

The Jacksonville Jaguars made a number of self-inflicted mistakes that ended up costing them a victory in Week 13's 27-24 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, but one sports analytics company thinks a first-half coaching decision didn't help matters either. 

EdjSports.com, the data science and analytics sports firm that owns Football Outsiders, reviews every coaching decision during the season and ranks the best and worst decisions each week based on impact to Game-Winning Chance (GWC).

"Game-Winning Chance (GWC) is a team’s win probability, generated from the EdjFootball simulation model, which simulates each game 400,000 times. The EdjSports proprietary model is based on historical NFL play-by-play data and is fully customized for each team’s strengths and weaknesses. Every team has a GWC at kickoff, based on the customized matchup, which fluctuates throughout the game, ending at either 0% or 100%," EdjSports says.

The company says Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone has made the worst coaching decision of any coach in the NFL in Week 13 thus far. This could change considering three games are still left to be played in the week, but as of now he has the distinction of the most impactful decision. 

What was the call? Facing fourth-and-1 from their own 34-yard line and holding a 9-6 lead, Marrone and the Jaguars opted to send Logan Cooke and the punt team out with 1:54 left in the second quarter.

Cooke punted the ball 48 yards before an eight-yard return took it to the Vikings' 26-yard line. The Vikings would go on to punt on their ensuing drive, but this took away a chance for the Jaguars to extend a two-minute drive to potentially steal points before halftime. 

EdjSports says the optimal play would have been a rushing play. Considering James Robinson rushed for 4.3 yards per carry on Sunday and has been one of the league's most productive running backs this year, it is hard to argue against hoping he could get a yard against a mediocre Vikings' rush defense. 

EdjSports says the decision to punt instead of rushing resulted in a -5.9% change in game-winning chance. The next lowest-ranked coaching decision came in at -5.4%, so Marrone was in a somewhat comfortable lead for the worst decision.

In the end, it is hard to say this decision is a big reason the Jaguars lost. Had they not turned the ball over three times, took a safety, or missed several kicks, this coaching decision would have likely been rendered moot. With that said, the Jaguars do have the second-worst fourth-down conversion rate in the NFL this year at 27.78%.

But this is still something Marrone and the Jaguars can control and something that should be noted. Sitting at 1-10 entering Sunday, Marrone didn't have many reasons not to be aggressive against the Vikings. He should have trusted Robinson to get a yard here, even with their past struggles.