Examining the Youth Movement: Analysis of the Jaguars' Initial 53-Man Roster
The first 53-man roster of the 2020 season is in for the Jacksonville Jaguars. The roster will almost certainly change in the coming days as the Jaguars make other decisions on the waiver wire and with injuries, but these are the 53 players the Jaguars are keeping on their active roster for camp.
There are plenty of different angles to look at the current Jaguars roster from considering the team made a number of surprises, and considering the complete youth movement that is but which are the most noteworthy?
We attempt to give a comprehensive look at Jacksonville's roster below, with our guesses on why the Jaguars made the moves they did leading up to Saturday's cut deadline. For reference, the roster is here.
The youth movement is on
To say the Jaguars are set to be a young team would be an understatement. In fact, it may be the greatest understatement in all of football. Leaving Saturday's cut deadline, the Jaguars have 16 rookies on their 53-man roster: all 12 draft picks from April's draft and four undrafted rookie free agents.
For reference, that is over 30% of the team's roster that has never played an NFL game. They have never even played in a preseason game. The Jaguars didn't have this many rookies on their opening rosters in 1995, their inaugural season, or in 2013, which is widely regarded as the worst roster in franchise history in terms of talent.
The Jaguars also have seven second-year players on their active roster, though that will change when/if the Jaguars activate running back Ryquell off of the Reserve/COVID-19 list. Then again, this will be balanced out when Quincy Williams is placed on injured reserve (core injury), which general manager Dave Caldwell said the team expects to happen. Williams will be eligible to return to the roster, however.
We have yet to run the numbers on the rest of the league's rosters, but the Jaguars are almost positively set to be one of the youngest teams to hit the field this season. The Jaguars continue to insist they are not tanking, but the simple fact is this is a team that is about to have to largely learn on the fly.
Biggest surprise is the quarterback room
The fact that sixth-round rookie quarterback Jake Luton made the Jaguars' initial 53-man roster isn't a surprise. We projected Luton to after he both earned high praise from the Jaguars' coaching staff and impressed on the practice field. It was tough for us to see any scenario in which Luton wasn't making this roster.
With that said, it is a bit of a shock the Jaguars currently have just two quarterbacks on their active roster. Head coach Doug Marrone made it obvious how much he valued a veteran presence at quarterback, but Mike Glennon and Josh Dobbs each struggled throughout the course of training camp. If the Jaguars truly shaped their roster based off what they have seen this summer and fall, then this is the correct move to have Luton as the No. 2 QB.
With that said, the Jaguars should be expected to either pick up a quarterback on the waiver or sign one of Dobbs or Glennon back to the practice squad. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Jaguars simply can't afford to not have a scarce amount of quarterbacks on their roster who knows the offense. That is what makes carrying two quarterbacks so curious, even if it is yet to be determined that it will be permanent.
Where we missed on our 53-man projection
We believe that self-evaluation of one's process is important in every possible field and instance, and it is no different when it comes to looking at our own projections for the Jaguars. Therefore, here is a list of some of the moves we guessed incorrectly on, and why we think it went that way.
- As we explained above, we believed the Jaguars would enter the season with three quarterbacks due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We did have Jake Luton making the team, but we didn't have Mike Glennon being cut.
- Our projection came out before running back Ryquell Armstead was placed on Reserve/COVID-19 list, hence the five running backs.
- My biggest miss was at receiver. I predicted Dede Westbrook would be off the roster via either being waived or being traded before 4 p.m., with Terry Godwin taking his place. Westbrook, of course, is safe and will return to the Jaguars for a fourth season, or at least it appears that way now. Godwin had a terrific camp while Westbrook spent most of the camp nursing a shoulder injury, but we predicted the Jaguars would value Godwin's upside over Westbrook's experience. We were wrong, and Westbrook will return.
- The Jaguars listed Cassius Marsh as a defensive end, though we did have him on our roster at linebacker. We projected Carl Davis to the roster, but he is not on the roster due to a suspension, leading to Doug Costin instead making the team.
- Quincy Williams made the team, but our prediction of him going to injured reserve looks to be correct. Jacksonville did opt to keep Dakota Allen over Nate Evans. We thought Evans had a better camp, but the Jaguars have been high on Allen since they signed him as a free agent during last season.
- We had four safeties making it, but it isn't hard to see why they kept Brandon Watson. He had a really good camp, and the numbers made sense after just two quarterbacks and four running backs/fullbacks.
- We guessed wrong on the long snapper battle, which is admittedly a bit deflating! The team went with rookie long snapper Ross Matiscik, which is a small surprise considering the experience of Matt Orzech from last season.
Inexperience of Jacksonville's secondary is jarring
The Jaguars kept 11 defensive backs on their first 53-man roster for this season, and that includes a stunning five rookies and two second-year players. The youth in the room is extraordinary and may be the defining aspect of the unit moving forward in at least in 2020.
Essentially, the Jaguars have four rookie cornerbacks in CJ Henderson, Josiah Scott, Luq Barcoo, and Chris Claybrooks. All deserved to make the team after the latter three had some standout moments during camp. But aside from them, the Jaguars have just third-year cornerback Tre Herndon and eighth-year cornerback D.J. Hayden in terms of experience.
At safety, the most elder player is Jarrod Wilson, and he has only spent one year as a starter. Josh Jones is entering his fourth year and has limited NFL experience, while the other three safeties are either second-year players or rookies.
The Jaguars have plenty of interesting talent at in the secondary, their youth will be one of the most interesting aspects of the team throughout the entire season. It remains to be seen if the Jaguars will add any experienced cornerbacks via the waiver wire, but for now it is the youngest part of what is an already young team.
Where this year's initial 53-man roster differed from 2019's
There have been changes to both Jacksonville's front office and the general circumstances of the world and the league since the first rosters of 2019 came out, but is still an interesting exercise to look at how the makeup of this year's first 53-man roster differs from last year. So, what are the differences? We run through a few here.
- Jaguars kept three running backs last season but didn't have a fullback. That changed this year with Bruce Miller.
- Jacksonville entered 2019 with four tight ends on their first roster. The addition of Miller helped the Jaguars create some flexibility here.
- After keeping nine offensive linemen last year, the Jaguars are keeping eight this year. They had two backup offensive tackles and two backup interior linemen on last year's roster, and now have just one backup offensive tackle.
- After going with five safeties and five cornerbacks last season, the Jaguars opted to have 11 defensive backs on this year's first roster due to the inclusion of six cornerbacks. The place of Chris Claybrooks on the roster as the sixth cornerback is likely largely due to his return ability.
Changes are still to come
We already mentioned earlier the Jaguars will likely be placing Quincy Williams on injured reserve, and other moves should also be expected. The Jaguars picked up several players on the waiver wire last year, with Matt Orzech, Seth DeValve and Devine Ozigbo among them. With the Jaguars having such a limited roster this year, it should be expected for them to continue to look at changes to the roster.
Which positions make sense to possibly upgrade at? Maybe defensive tackle or cornerback. The Jaguars have a ton of talent at cornerback but lack any experience. Meanwhile, the defensive line depth chart is fairly underwhelming. Add in the fact that Armstead will likely return to the roster at some point, and this 53-man roster is far from set.
