Five Bold Predictions For the Jaguars During 2021 Free Agency
Free agency will begin at 4 p.m. on March 17, which will kick off the unmatched annual frenzy that is the NFL offseason. Each year, March sets the battleground for the upcoming NFL season as teams reload.
Considering the Jacksonville Jaguars have a plethora of resources entering the 2021 offseason, it is reasonable to assume they will be willing to make big moves to improve from last year's 1-15 season.
New head coach Urban Meyer and general manager Trent Baalke have yet to make a significant move personnel-wise in terms of a trade or roster move, but the team's amount of roster needs and available cap space suggests this won't be the case once free agency begins.
With this in mind, here are our five official predictions for how the Jaguars will tackle the free agency cycle. We are including a trade due to the nature of trades typically taking place closer to the free agency period as well.
As a reminder, these are just predictions based on logic and fits. None of this is a report and is instead our best-projected guess at how the Jaguars address free agency.
This also won't account for all of the team's moves. The Jaguars made more than five additions in last year's free agency when they were cap-strapped, so more than five can be assumed for this year.
With this in mind, here are five bold predictions for the Jaguars and the upcoming free agency cycle.
Jaguars sign Hunter Henry to a four-year, $48 million deal
Urban Meyer never had any premiere tight ends at Ohio State, but that doesn't mean it isn't imperative for the Jaguars to find a top option at the position this offseason. The Jaguars' current tight end roster outlook is barren, with James O'Shaughnessy set to be an unrestricted free agent and Tyler Eifert's future uncertain due to a 2021 team option. Josh Oliver missed all of 2020 and has just four games of experience in two seasons.
If the Jaguars are going to surround the No. 1 overall pick -- likely Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence -- with the weapons and support he needs to hit the ground running, then it makes sense to spend at the tight end position. The Jaguars are in such bad shape at the position currently that it could even be justifiable to add a big-name free agent and spend a relatively high draft pick on the unit.
There aren't many tight ends who are game-changers in terms of offensive impact, but Los Angeles Chargers' Hunter Henry has flashed the ability before. The 2016 second-round pick has caught 21 touchdowns in his four full seasons, though he has missed significant time with injuries (all of 2018).
Regardless, he seems like the perfect fit for the Jaguars, Meyer, and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. He will have a reason to want to sign with the Jaguars considering they can outbid teams and will have an assumedly bright future at quarterback. He has just missed six games in the last two seasons and has caught 115 passes for 1,265 yards (11.0 yards per catch) and nine touchdowns during that span, so it may not be as high-risk of a signing as some think.
Ultimately, we predict a four-year, $48 million contract for Henry. This would make him the league's fourth-highest-paid tight end behind only George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Rob Gronkowski in terms of total value. It is a bump up from what Austin Hooper got from the Browns last year, as well.
Jaguars re-sign Dewaune Smoot, also add Dalvin Tomlinson
The Jaguars have to invest in the interior defensive line this offseason. While many have Leonard Williams as the logical top option, there is the very real scenario where Williams re-signs with the Giants or is franchise tagged. If this is the case, the Jaguars will have to get more creative with how they take to rebuilding a defensive line that was hit by injuries and opt-outs in 2020.
We predict one part of this solution will be for Jaguars opting to re-sign Dawuane Smoot, who is second on the team in sacks with 11.5 the last two seasons. Smoot is a tough, high-effort player who has shown the ability to rush off the edge and inside over the last two seasons. He seems like the type of lineman who can thrive in a rotation under Joe Cullen's tutelage, and he likely won't get a deal that will break the bank.
The Jaguars will need some fresh names too, though. We predict that if the Jaguars miss out on Williams due to the Giants, they counter by taking one of the Giants' other talented defensive linemen in Dalvin Tomlinson. Tomlinson projects as a nose tackle who can also play five-technique, but he is best described as a dominant run defender.
Tomlinson has eight sacks, 21 tackles for loss, and 20 quarterback hits in four seasons with the Giants and could be considered a player on the track to become a D.J. Reader-level talent. He may not bring a ton of pass-rush, but he would be a monumental add for a Jaguars' line that needs all the help it can get.
Keelan Cole signs with the Minnesota Vikings
Keelan Cole has been a productive wide receiver for the Jaguars over the last four seasons and even saw a career resurgence in terms of usage in 2020. He has the backing of the fan base as a player they want to see retained moving into the Meyer/Lawrence era, and Cole himself has even expressed some desire to do so, but we think the Jaguars will let him test the open market as they look for other options in free agency (Curtis Samuel?) or the NFL Draft.
Cole should be highly sought after as a value addition among a crowded wide receiver group in this year's free agency cycle, and we ultimately predict he signs with the Minnesota Vikings. Former Jaguars wide receivers coach Keenan McCardell, who coached Cole in all four of his first seasons in the NFL, is now in the same role with the Vikings. The Vikings badly need a third receiving option behind Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen and could provide a more logical landing spot for Cole than the Jaguars. This makes sense for all parties, as bittersweet as it may be for a player who created several memorable moments as a Jaguar.
Malik Hooker reunites with Urban Meyer and signs with Jaguars
Once considered one of the top up-and-coming safeties in the NFL, Malik Hooker's tenure with the Colts got derailed by injuries. Despite this, it is still clear he has a lot of talent and can be a key contributor for a defense moving forward. Coupling the fact that the Jaguars are likely set to utilize multiple safeties in Joe Cullen's scheme and that Hooker has ties to Meyer after playing under him at Ohio State, and this makes sense for all sides.
There are some injury concerns: Hooker tore his ACL and MCL in Week 7 as a rookie, ending his first season. In 2020, Hooker suffered a torn achilles in Week 2. Through four seasons, he has played in just 36 games. If it wasn't for a constant string of injuries during his Colts tenure, Indianapolis would likely push to retain the former first-round pick.
Despite this, Hooker makes sense as a roll of the dice thanks to his ball skills. He recorded seven interceptions in the first three years of his career and would give the Jaguars a safety with legitimate range to pair with Jarrod Wilson, Daniel Thomas, Andrew Wingard, and any potential draft picks.
Jacksonville trades for Baltimore offensive tackle Orlando Brown Jr.
This just makes too much sense for both sides. Orlando Brown is a Pro Bowl tackle who has shined at both left and right tackle for the Baltimore Ravens, but he has made it clear he wants to remain at left tackle. That won't happen in Baltimore, so they will now have to look for the best packages they can acquire for the fourth-year tackle.
The Jaguars happen to have a gaping hole at left tackle due to Cam Robinson's impending free agency, so it is reasonable for them to be in the running for the top offseason options at the position. Considering all of the factors, which include the need to protect the No. 1 pick, the Jaguars' amount of draft picks (11 selections in 2021), and league-leading projected cap space, the Jaguars are a team that can shoulder the hefty investment that will be trading for Brown.
Jacksonville wouldn't be able to get out of it cheap, though. Brown would likely cost at least the Jaguars' second first-round selection (No. 25 overall). Factor in the reality that Brown has just one year left on his contract and will demand a market-leading contract in one offseason, and this isn't a cheap price to pay for a potential top left tackle. Despite this, we think the Jaguars take the risk and add Brown to ensure Lawrence's blindside is protected.
