Good Teams Exploit Bad Tendencies, and the Jaguars Need To Do That Against 49ers

Can the Jaguars exploit the 49ers' struggling run defense?

It’s almost hard to believe how drastic the drop in performance from the San Francisco 49ers defense has been. As the Jacksonville Jaguars prepare for a big-time clash, San Francisco’s defense has regressed, especially in rushing defense.

In their past three games, San Francisco has allowed an average of 122.7 yards per game. There’s no coincidence that their three-game losing streak coincides with how soft they’ve been against the run. And remember, this is a unit that was giving up 64 yards rushing per game in the five contests before that.

49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan publicly called out the defense after their loss to the Cleveland Browns, which saw them allow 160 on the ground. While they somewhat rebounded by limiting a lackluster Vikings RB group to 74 yards, they then gave up 130 to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 8.

In his call-out, Shanahan mentions that the Browns were able to “get around” their defensive ends like Nick Bosa. Travis Etienne is one of the most dynamic NFL RBs when running outside, and that should be an area that the Jaguars saturate on Sunday.

And if you are a team like Jacksonville who averages 112.5 rushing yards per game, you should be salivating. And it’s not just about the Jaguars winning at the line of scrimmage, it’s also about how poorly the 49ers have tackled beyond the line.

According to Pro Football Reference, San Francisco has missed 17 tackles over the last three games. Etienne alone has broken 21 tackles this season, destroying defenders in open space and turning decent gains into big plays.

While some Jaguars fans want Jacksonville to be an offense that leans on Trevor Lawrence throwing for 300 yards and three touchdowns a game, it’s not who they are. Under Doug Pederson, they’ve built all of their passing and gadget plays off pounding the ground.

That being said, it’s not like the Jaguars are facing an easy test. The Niners are still very clearly good and they’re coming off a BYE week. They’re also making a major change to their coaching approach by having defensive coordinator Steve Wilks move from the booth to the field.

It’s not the first time this season that the Jaguars have been the opponent of a team bringing a coordinator down from the booth, as the Pittsburgh Steelers did so with OC Matt Canada. It did not work.

But San Francisco is a different team and their defense is a different beast. Whether or not Wilks’ presence on the sideline makes a significant change remains to be seen. But it’s clear that fixing their defensive issues, especially in the run game, is not just something working behind the scenes, but such a prevalent issue that the Niners are speaking and acting publicly on it.

The Jaguars can either react to those changes or be proactive with their approach. Considering how Pederson views his offense, I wouldn’t bet on him waiting to react.