How Improvements In the Red-Zone Could Determine the Jaguars Season

If the Jaguars' red-zone offense improves in 2024, so will the entire offense.

Aug 12, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) throws a pass before the game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports / Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

To put it bluntly, the Jaguars were abysmal in opponent’s territory last season. While scoring opportunities were plentiful, their inability to actually cash in their chips left the team and its fans frustrated time and time again.

I previously wrote an article on Jacksonville’s struggles capitalizing on scoring opportunities as the offense turned the ball over 29 times, 25% of their total drives that crossed midfield. Another 14% of the drives ended in a punt or missed field goal. The opportunities for a fantastic season on offense were there, the team just simply couldn't take advantage.

That trend didn't just stop there when narrowing the focus to the red zone. Those persistent issues on the other side of the 50-yard line only intensified when the team did make it inside the red zone.

When taking a quick look at the analytics, it isn’t pretty. The team’s 50% red zone rate isn’t awful (21st), however, their 4.31 PTS/RZ (31st) and red zone EPA/Play of -0.13 (27th) were. Ironically, the team was more efficient rushing the ball than passing inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. 

While the team relied on Trevor Lawrence’s arm to get them inside the red zone, the Jaguars EPA/Rush of -0.05 (18th) was infinitely better than the -0.25 EPA/Pass (31st) within the red zone.

Much of these struggles can be attributed to the Jaguars lack of a true scoring threat. Jacksonville’s red zone target share was wildly unbalanced as Calvin Ridley saw 40.3% of targets. It certainly didn’t help that Ridley totaled an EPA of -7.9 last season within the red zone, among the worst in the league. 

Zay Jones, who was hurt for much of the season, finished second with a 16.4% share. Evan Engram and Christian Kirk simply weren’t involved enough last season. The addition of Gabe Davis could be huge for the Jaguars’ offense in 2024. His total red zone EPA of 7.4 is certainly promising, in addition to, 17% of his career receptions being touchdowns.

It will be a new look offense in Jacksonville this coming season. The team invested into the offensive line (Mitch Morse & Ezra Cleveland) to jumpstart what was an ugly rushing attack and added playmaking weapons (Gabe Davis & Brian Thomas Jr.) for Trevor Lawrence, introducing some much needed firepower to Press Taylor’s offense.

The pressure is on. This offseason the Jaguars spent as much as any team in free agency and locked up the two best players on the roster, handing out record-breaking contracts to both Josh Allen and​ Trevor Lawrence. There’s no more room for excuses in 2024.

The AFC South certainly isn’t waiting around for the Jaguars to put it all together. The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts seem to have bright futures ahead and the Titans spent big in free agency as well. The 2024 season is the Jaguars opportunity to leap atop the competitive AFC South and lay claim to the throne.

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