Jaguars' Christian Kirk's Free Agency Deal Aging Well Following WR Boom

The Jaguars made a splash when they signed Christian Kirk to big numbers this offseason, but what does the deal look like months later?

The great wide receiver boom of the 2022 offseason has been a wild ride.

The ride has featured big deal after big deal, with Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp signing the latest via a three-year deal that effectively makes his new contract a five-year, $110 million deal -- $75 million of which just became guaranteed. 

Cooper Kupp and the Rams reached agreement today on a three-year extension that ties him to LA for the next five years, at $110 million, and allows him to assume his rightful place amongst the NFL’s highest-paid WRs, per sources.

Aaron Donald and Kupp wrapped up 48 hours apart. pic.twitter.com/md9xsHND2p

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) June 8, 2022

Kupp is just the latest in a long line of receivers to cash in this year. Joining him is Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Christian Kirk, who signed a four-year, $72 million deal with $37 million guaranteed, and a host of other receivers.

• Davante Adams: five years, $141.25 million with $65.67 million in guarantees. 
• Stefon Diggs: four years, $96 million with $70 million in guarantees.
• Tyreek Hill: four years, $120 million with $72.2 million in guarantees.
• A.J. Brown: four years, $100 million with $57.22 million in guarantees.
• Brandin Cooks: two years, $39.6 million with $36 million in guarantees. 
• Allen Robinson: three years, $46.5 million with $30.7 million in guarantees.
• DJ Moore: three years, $61.9 million with $41.6 million in guarantees. 
• Chris Godwin: three years, $60 million with $40 million in guarantees. 
• Mike Williams: three years, $60 million with $40 million in guarantees.

In terms of the other receivers on this list, Kirk is viewed as a player whose deal set the tone for the offseason. Kirk agreed to his deal with the Jaguars on March 14. Other than Williams, Kirk signed his deal before every other deal.  

• Williams: March 8
• Robinson: March 17
• Godwin: March 16
• Moore: March 18
• Adams: March 18
• Hill: March 23
• Diggs: April 6
• Cooks: April 7
• Brown: April 28
• Kupp: June 8

Kirk's deal was also one of the largest of free agency; among all players who were free agents in 2022 -- so not counting receivers traded or extended -- Kirk's deal was fourth-most in total value, second-most in average per year and fourth-most in overall guarantees. No other receiver got on the open market what Kirk got this year. 

As a result of these factors, the Kirk deal has often been labeled as helping break the wide receiver market open.

"Well, first of all, it's supply and demand, right? That plays a factor in free agency for sure," Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke said in the days following the Kirk deal. 

"And if he comes in, and he plays to the level that the contract is and he meets the incentives, which I hope he does, and if he does nobody here, nobody in the stands, nobody in the national media is going to care about what he was paid, because he's earned every penny of it. And that's the ... the only time it's going to matter if he doesn't play well, and we're not worried about that."

Whether Kirk's deal actually played a part in each of the aforementioned receivers striking big deals of their own is up for debate. It is certainly easy to see why those inside the NFL and agent world would think so considering each receiver's price has gone up more and more since Kirk signed. 

But does that actually offer a fair representation of the Kirk deal today? Not quite. 

While signing Kirk, who recorded 252 touches for 3,044 yards and 17 touchdowns from scrimmage in four years with the Arizona Cardinals, obviously raised eyebrows at the time, the Jaguars have already seen the Kirk deal age well.

Is that a result of Kirk's deal itself causing the market to explode and overcorrect itself? Perhaps, but that has no impact on the Jaguars. What does have an impact is the Jaguars likely having the Kirk deal look closer to a fair deal than a massive overpay, especially as other receivers such as D.K. Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin, Diontae Johnson, and sooner than later Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb. 

As things stand following the Kupp deal, Kirk is tied with Kenny Golladay at No. 10 among all receivers in total value; tied with Golladay at No. 14 in annual money; tied with Locket at No. 15 in guaranteed money. Kirk got closer to Golladay, Cooks and Lockett money than he got Adams or Hill money. 

In terms of approximate value, Kirk has averaged 6.5 per year in his career (with a career high of 10 AV in 2021). Golladay has averaged 5.6, Cooks has averaged 9.125, and Lockett has averaged 8.71.

In comparison to these players, Kirk has been more average on an annual basis than Golladay (with Golladay dinged by his 2021 season), while Lockett and Cooks provide slightly more value. Only Lockett had a higher AV in 2021 than Kirk, though, suggesting the 25-year-old is trending upward compared to the group. 

EPA is one stat that suggests Kirk's deal could look better and better as more and more receivers get paid. According to Sports Info Solutions, Kirk tied for eighth among all receivers in EPA per target; Lockett No. 20, Cooks was No. 62 and Golladay No. 171. 

No matter which way you slice it, Kirk's production, age and upside dictates he likely belongs with the Lockett, Golladay and Cooks tier. If Kirk is able to stay in Jacksonville for all four years and earn the $72 million that the contract would indicate, this would likely be near the 20s in terms of total value among receivers when that day comes.

Kirk still has to earn his deal on the field. There is always the chance the Jaguars look back on the Kirk deal in two years and rethink the path forward with him. But the idea the Jaguars backed the brinks truck up for Kirk at an outlier level is no longer as true as it was in March. 

The highest-paid players never stay the highest-paid players for long, and the very nature of the NFL and the receiver market has made Kirk's deal age well before he even sees the field as a Jaguar.