Jaguars Fantasy Football Preview: Quarterbacks

How much value should be placed on the Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback room during this year's fantasy football drafts?

August is finally here, which means it’s time for fantasy football drafts. This article series will tell you which Jaguars players to target or avoid in all formats, and this edition will focus on Jacksonville’s quarterback position.

After tallying six wins in 14 appearances his rookie campaign, Gardner Minshew has been given the green light as Jacksonville’s 2020 undisputed starter. Minshew’s abilities as a “real-life” player is still to be determined, but he’s an underrated fantasy player. Minshew finished as fantasy’s QB19 last season (he was QB9 in fantasy points per start) but is currently priced as QB21.

Minshew was aided by an easy slate of opposing defenses last season. He faced the ninth- easiest schedule in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, but fortunately, he’s on deck to play the 14th-easiest schedule in 2020 per Fantasy Points. It’s a similar story regarding defensive efficiency as opposed to fantasy points allowed: according to Sharp Football Stats, Minshew faced the second-softest schedule of opposing pass defenses in his starts last season, and Jacksonville is set to play the fourth-softest schedule in 2020.

Jacksonville returns all five starters on its offensive line, and that continuity is critical in such a shortened offseason. Left tackle Cam Robinson is another year removed from his 2018 ACL tear and right tackle Jawaan Taylor is entering his second NFL season as a starter, so Minshew should have a viable offensive line to work with.

D.J. Chark is a solid primary passing option, and the Jaguars added receiving depth by bringing in both veterans (Tyler Eifert, Chris Thompson) and rookies (Laviska Shenault, Collin Johnson, Tyler Davis). The arrival of Jay Gruden as offensive coordinator should be a bigger impact, especially if Gruden is able to maximize Minshew’s strengths in deep passing, play action passing and rushing ability.

Minshew ranked outside the top-15 in passing attempts, yards and touchdowns, and his lack of strong aerial production diminished a high weekly ceiling- he finished as a top-five weekly quarterback in 0% of his games, per FantasyPros. But Minshew ranked first in scramble rate and fifth in rushing yards among quarterbacks, and that rushing production provided a solid floor - he finished as a top-18 quarterback in 71.4% of his games, good for 12th-best in the league.

Minshew averaged 27.5 rushing yards per start and should expect to find the end zone more after not scoring a rushing touchdown in 2019. Jacksonville’s talent-depleted defense and league-low projected win total suggest plenty of negative game scripts for Minshew to work his magic. He likely doesn’t possess the upside to be a league winner, but his floor makes him an extremely safe draft pick as rock-solid QB2. In standard 1-QB leagues in which running backs and wide receivers are much more valuable, Minshew probably isn’t worth drafting, but he is an underrated asset as a QB2 in deeper leagues as well as 2-QB, Superflex, best-ball, and dynasty formats.

Joshua Dobbs was exchanged for a fourth-rounder with Pittsburgh in 2019, while Jake Luton (sixth-round rookie) and Mike Glennon (free agent) were both acquired this offseason to add depth to the quarterback room. If Minshew is injured/out for an extensive period, Dobbs would be an interesting flier in deep leagues if he became the starter due to his unknown ceiling. If Glennon is given the nod instead, he’d only be worth adding out of desperation for an available quarterback. But as long as Minshew stays on the field, these players shouldn’t be rostered in any format.